Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies—Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (2010) / Chapter Skim
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4 Scenario Analysis
4 Scenario Analysis
Pages 21-32
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From page 21... ...
The fuel economy of these supplies will be ample,2 but if worldwide oil shortages cause vehicles follows projections from the EIA Annual Energy dramatic oil price escalations during the period covered in Outlook 2008, meeting fuel economy standards that rise this analysis, the world market for light-duty vehicles will until 2020, with only modest improvements in fuel economy change dramatically. beyond this time.
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60 50 40 50 ICEV HEV Figure 4-5 45 30 Fuel economy (mpg) 40 R01653 20 35 replaced 30 10 ICEV HEV 25 editable vectors 0 20 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 one-column size below 15 10 Year 5 FIGURE 4.4 Fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles for the Ef 0 ficiency Case.
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From page 23... ...
Figure 4-6 R01653 PHEV Cases editable vectors In these two scenarios, PHEVs replace some of the vehi- one-column size below cles in the Reference Case which is otherwise unchanged. 250 Maximum Practical Penetration The Maximum Practical scenario uses the same annual 200 sales rate for PHEVs as the Hydrogen Case for HFCVs except No.
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From page 24... ...
would lead to 110 million PHEVs on the road by 2050, as shown in Figure 4.6. The Probable scenario assumes the continuance of curProbable Penetration rent policy incentives, which are inadequate to achieve the The Probable scenario represents a PHEV market pen- penetration rate in the Maximum Practical scenario.
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From page 25... ...
TRANSITION COSTS Investments will be required for PHEVs to reach cost PHEV Characteristics competitiveness with the Reference Case gasoline vehicle. The PHEV-10 and PHEV-40 are the only vehicles mod- This transition cost analysis is similar to that in the 2008 eled in this report.
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From page 26... ...
To explore these, to the electricity cost or vehicle price in the cash flow analysis. These would Appendix C also includes a sensitivity analysis for the PHEV likely would have a very small impact on the breakeven year or buydown price increment, oil price, and electricity price.
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From page 27... ...
It starts out negative because all the PHEVs sold Year in a year are much more expensive that the conventional R01653 vehicles they replace, but there are few PHEVs in the fleet FIGURE 4.8 Retail prices for PHEVs for probable and optimistic editable vectors rates of technology progress, compared to the Reference Case producing fuel savings. Cash flow goes positive in 2028 (the one-column size below vehicle (conventional ICEV)
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earlier, when they are more expensive, leading to higher 100 transition costs.10 Table 4.4 also compares the transition 80 costs of fuel cell vehicles as estimated in the 2008 Hydrogen Report. 60 Fuel cost diff.
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0 TABLE 4.4 Comparison of Transition Costs for PHEV and HFCV Cases 30/70 PHEV-40/PHEV-10 Mix HFCV 0 Penetration Rate Maximum Practical Probable H2 Success H2 Partial Success Break-even yeara 2032 2034 2023 2033 0 Cumulative cash flow difference $94 billion $47 billion $22 billion $46 billion (PHEV-gasoline reference car) to break-even year b Ref Case 0 Cumulative vehicle retail price difference $363 billion $179 billion $40 billion $92 billion 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 (AFV-gasoline reference car)
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Thus, total R01653 (Probable) 400 GHG emissions from PHEVs depend on the composition of 200 editable vectors the electric grid and on the time of day for charging.14 0 one-column 2040 e below siz 2050 2010 2020 2030 The committee analyzed two projections for the grid: Year • A business-as-usual case, starting with the high price FIGURE 4.15 GHG emissions for PHEVs at the market pencase from the Annual Energy Outlook (EIA, 2008)
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PHEV-4 200 Efficiency + 800 replaced 2050 GHG emissions HFCV 0 1,400 2010 2020 2030 2040 600 editable vectors Year 1,200 400 one-column size below FIGURE 4.18 GHG emissions for cases combining ICEV Effi 1,000 200 PHEV-10 (m ciency Case and PHEV or HFCV vehicles at the Maximum Practical 0 800 penetration rate with the EIA grid mix. Efficiency + 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 600 Year 400 PHEV-40 (m FIGURE 4.17 GHG emissions for cases combining ICEV Effi ciency Case and PHEV or HFCV vehicles at the Maximum Practical Efficiency + 200 2,000 penetration rate with the EPRI/NRDC grid mix.
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buys large numbers of expensive early PHEVs. • Transition costs are sensitive to oil prices and to vehicle cost increment, which depends on battery cost assumptions, SCENARIO SUmmARY but are not very sensitive to electricity price.
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