Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2 (2010) / Chapter Skim
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A useful forecast provides insights on potential future outcomes that lead to effective action in the present. A forecast of disruptive technologies is designed to reduce surprise by alerting decision makers and providing them with the tools needed to avoid unanticipated and perhaps catastrophic outcomes.
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The statement of task for the study is provided in Box S-1. In its first report, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptie Technologies, the committee discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies (NRC, 2010)
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The commit tee will comment on the insights gained from past committee meetings and the workshop and recommend options for future courses of action in the development of a persistent technology forecasting system.
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Persistence To detect emerging trends, a successful disruptive technology forecasting system must continuously update and improve forecasts as new data become available. In this persistent system, the historical development of a forecast can be tracked and analyzed, creating valuable insights that can be used to improve later forecasts.
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Specific areas of risk that should be addressed include technology and engineering risk, data risk, security vulnerabilities risks, leadership and personnel risk, disruptive idea risk, user risk, financial risk, and stakeholder risk. Each of these risks should be considered and mitigated during the design and implementation of a persistent forecasting system, as discussed in Chapter 1.
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Crowdsourced Option 4. Storytelling Option Intelligence Cycle Option The name Intelligence Cycle Option was given to the system design that uses an approach similar to the clas sic approach used by the intelligence community: hypothesize, task, collect, and analyze.
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kEy ObSERvATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS After the workshop, the committee met and discussed the data collected at previous meetings and the output from the workshop exercises. After considering the sum of collected ideas from these activities, the commit tee made the following key observations and recommendations for future courses of action in the development of a persistent technology forecasting system.
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The illustrative models developed at the workshop indicate that the design and building of a 1.0 version persistent forecasting system for disruptive technologies are possible using existing technologies and forecasting methods and can be achieved within a reasonable time frame using a modest level of human and financial resources. key Observation.
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key Recommendation. The 1.0 version of a forecasting system should begin developing a forecast of future events or conditions by constructing structured narratives describing disruptive impacts within a specific contextual framework related to particular technology use.
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The Department of Defense and the intelligence community should begin the process of building a persistent forecasting system by selecting leadership and a small, independent, development team. The team should be given seed-level funding to establish an organizational structure and business plan and build a working 1.0 version of a disruptive technology forecasting system.
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