Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2 (2010) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 11-24
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. The first report, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptie Technologies, describes existing forecasting methodologies and critiques the latest, most innovative attempts to build comprehensive forecasting systems (NRC, 2010)
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The commit tee will comment on the insights gained from past committee meetings and the workshop and recommend options for future courses of action in the development of a persistent technology forecasting system.
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Louie explained to workshop participants that a disruptive technology is characteristically hard to predict and by nature occurs infrequently, so it might be difficult to identify or foresee. Such a technology can cause an abrupt, revolutionary change to established technologies and markets; and while perhaps starting locally, it may significantly alter the balance of global power (in financial, military, security, trade, and scientific realms)
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A high-level disruptive technology forecasting system could be used by the DoD in the following ways: • To increase the lead time for stakeholders to plan and address potential disruptions; • To provide early indications of potential emerging new and disruptive technologies, and • o provide stakeholders with tools for prioritizing potential threats and allocating resources to increase the T ability to capitalize on, protect against, or mitigate the impact of a potential disruption. Observation.
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The transition from one logistic curve to the next is fertile ground for the emergence of new disruptive technologies. A system of forecasting of disruptive events needs to be developed to meet new realities that include expo nential technological growth, globalism, commercialization, the rapid diffusion of technical knowledge, the viral application of technology, the proliferation of asymmetric and disruptive strategies, and changing global competi tive forces.
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kEy REquIREMENTS FOR SySTEM MODELS This section outlines some of the most important characteristics and design elements of a disruptive technology forecasting system identified in the committee's first report (NRC, 2010) and during the workshop discussions.
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In many cases, these one-time predictions fail to develop technology roadmaps or to include a strategy for tracking and incorporating new signals1 that emerge after the prediction's creation. Many technology forecasts fail to explore potential secondary effects or to consider the possibilities for enabling new disruptive applications that might arise from integrating multiple technology disciplines.
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This could significantly improve the chances of discovering disruptive indicators before the disruptive technology emerged. This improvement would result not just from the complementary data coming from open sources.
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Rather than predicting the occurrence of a specific innovation, a worthwhile forecast predicts the problems that will be solved with technology and the effects of different possible solutions. Therefore, it is important to develop a road map of many potential futures of concern and to collect signals to help track the development of key technologies that might enable a specific future.
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The committee believes that it is important to include economic, social, and cultural experts along with scientists and technologists on a disruptive technology forecasting team. FRAMEWORk FOR MODEL buILDINg The workshop opened with a description of a framework for thinking about forecasting and a list of desired system attributes developed in the first report.
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Allocate resources -- Allocate integrate forecast into planning and resource allocation Review and revise Analyze Feedback sources of Asset New bias and allocation for Reassess priorities implement potential priorities mitigation disruptions techniques FIGURE 1-2 Conceptual process flow for the persistent forecasting system. SOURCE: Reprinted from NRC (2010)
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The committee acknowledges that the proposed model in the first report may not be the most accurate for a persistent system, but it provides a useful framework for the processes included within a single pass of a forecasting loop of a hypothetical persistent system. INSIgHTS FROM THE WORkSHOP After hearing briefly about the vision that the committee held for a forecasting system derived from its work on the first report and a brief description of the framework in Figure 1-2, the workshop attendees participated in a large-group discussion and then worked in subgroups to prioritize design elements; define input, output, and intermediate processes; and build models of potential forecasting systems for disruptive technologies incorporat ing both computer and human elements.
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The committee believes that the following is a list of potential risks that need to be considered and mitigated: • echnology and engineering risk: Some of the proposed systems depend on technologies such as databases, T search engines, data mining, classifiers, data visualization tools, and Web tools. Although all of these indi vidual technologies exist, developing a robust and reliable system that integrates these various technologies can be challenging even to an experienced technology team.
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2005. Disruptive Technology: An Uncertain Future.
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