Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies—Report 2 (2010) / Chapter Skim
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2 Model Design Options for Forecasting Systems
2 Model Design Options for Forecasting Systems
Pages 25-47
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From page 25... ...
Workshop participant Stan Vonog submitted a fourth forecasting concept at the end of the day. Each subgroup was asked to prioritize a list of key design criteria and then to use the results as a basis for building a process diagram for a forecasting system showing the essential steps of how the system works.
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From page 26... ...
This approach is useful for finding questions that would not normally be generated by people inside a system, and it is a valuable way to avoid closed ignorance.2 Processes The raw hypothesis based on the stakeholders' big question is fed into an interconnected enterprise of passive and active data gathering, analysis, and hypothesis generation. The forecasting system's hypothesis managers add a rough story and idea to the question and send the hypothesis to the passive and active analysis functions.
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From page 27... ...
FIGURE 2-1 Intelligence Cycle Option. NOTE: The CD included in the back inside cover of this report has an enlargeable version of this figure, which is also re produced in the PDF available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?
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From page 28... ...
Such a system can be built somewhat rapidly with a limited number of inputs to begin with and then scaled up by increasing the number and variety of information sources being mined as the forecasting system team deems necessary. Information is actively researched, analyzed, and synthesized to be fed into the raw hypothesis by forecasting system active data analysts, who research technologies, applications, and ideas from public data sources, subject-matter experts, the U.S.
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. It was generally agreed that in order to reduce bias, forecasting system team input would be limited in the passive data collection and group analysis functions.
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Desirable Disruptive group Participants The following are comments by the workshop participants and the committee members regarding desirable disruptive group participants. • One of the things that I've noticed about disruptive technologies and people who are involved in it,�� � observed one participant, �is they're disruptive, and that's the nature of who they are.�� • If you have too much education, you learn too much about what's not supposed to be and what you can't � do.�� • We want to talk to that 13-year-old who made it in his garage, not the 25-year-old graduate student well � on his way to a Ph.D.�� • There's something to be said about naïveté.
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From page 31... ...
The outputs of the hypothesis evaluation and testing function are hypotheses with accompanying evalua tions, which serve a dual purpose: to generate the final potential future narratives and to contribute further to the improvement of the hypothesis generation function. Authoring of Potential Future Narratives Narrative writers provide the final future narratives to the stakeholders (also known as customers)
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From page 32... ...
" tion, data/hypothesis analysis, and hypothesis generation functions of the forecasting system; the second is tem porality -- the continuous passive monitoring of previously identified signals and the periodic review of previous hypotheses and narratives as the system ages over time will enhance current and future projects. Although not formally presented due to the myriad forms that it could take, the system will incorporate a quantitative ranking or scoring system that will be consistent throughout the forecasting system's functional areas and will provide a numerical assignment of values to factors, such as probability and plausibility, for technologies, applications, ideas, hypotheses, and narrative outlines.
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From page 33... ...
But if we generate a ranking analysis and we report both the consensus and the outliers with the scores, then we can go back in each iteration and say how successful the consensus was in prediction and how successful was the outlier in prediction." ernmental organization to implement the forecasting system as a proprietary organization with proprietary software, which recruits and manages external participant groups solely for data and hypothesis evaluation. A second proposed form would establish the forecasting system as a paid membership organization, open to individuals, private companies, nonprofit organizations, and governmental organizations with an interest in using a persistent forecasting system or becoming contributing members of the forecasting system's analysis and evalu ation functions.
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. In the category of the unknown unknown, data-gathering activities might focus on technology experimentation and themes from science fiction to generate theories and test their viability.
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MODEl DESIgN OPTIONS FOr FOrECaSTINg SySTEMS FIGURE 2-2 Roadmapping Option. NOTE: The CD included in the back inside cover of this report has an enlargeable version of this figure, which is also reproduced in the PDF available at http://www.
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In the process of harvesting, data mining, and brainstorming, there is also an iterative process of experimentation in the selected communities to realize the team's hypothetical visions and test whether or not they meet the communities' needs. If they do, the scenario building continues.
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Then take that trend in the opposite direction, to the opposite extreme. This technique is similar to the �what if�� exercise that inspires science fiction, and filtering ideas from the corpus of science fiction can contribute to generating ideas.
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That committee, or its delegates, would respond to a specific query from a stakeholder or sponsor. It would then be the responsibility of the expert forecasting committee to produce regular, systematic reports.
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NOTE: The CD included in the back inside cover of this report has an enlargeable version of this figure, which is also reproduced in the PDF available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php? record_id=12834.
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Inputs could be broken down into smaller questions, an internal task for the operating group that supports the expert forecasting committee. A �hypothesis engine�� could develop hypotheses for narratives.
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These analysts attend conferences, workshops, or laboratories, listening to company presentations and constantly gathering information, then debating and discussing it in order to accomplish the following: • Identify discontinuities; • Engage decision makers; • nterface with the output and users to learn about the quality of data inputs, methodologies used for analysis, I and ways to improve the forecasting effort; and • Study how to continually refine the inputs and improve the methodologies of analysis. An example process might look like the intelligence community submitting a question to the expert forecast ing committee: �Is there any chance in the next 10 to 15 years that somebody's going to develop a really low-cost way of getting satellites up -- cheap and fast?
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From page 42... ...
FOuRTH FORECASTINg SySTEM: STORyTELLINg OPTION The fourth option proposed for a system model -- called the Storytelling Option -- was drawn up by workshop attendee Stan Vonog, inspired by his subgroup's decision to prioritize narrative. The system, drawn from the world of entertainment, is a novel organizational option used by Walt Disney in 1943.
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© Disney Enterprises, Inc. Five years after its founding and during the height of World War II, Walt Disney Studios released a functional organizational chart based on the storyboard process -- bringing a story idea through production to the screen.
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The model allows for persistence: themes that warrant further explora tion can be extracted from the narratives and redeveloped repeatedly using the same process. By beginning with scenarios and emphasizing narrative development, this model is intended to produce sto ries that include a compelling human element.
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From page 45... ...
Recommendation 2-1. The 1.0 version of a forecasting system should employ the extensive passive and active data-gathering techniques employed in the Intelligence Cycle Option, using the data to develop roadmaps of potential futures with signals and signposts derived from data inputs (as seen in the Roadmapping Option)
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an organization following a data-processing technology that Very open-facing, crowd-engaging structured approach such as the would be available. way of doing analysis, inspiration intelligence cycle.
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Presentation to the Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies by the President of TechCast, LLC, August 3.
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