Skip to main content

Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis (2010) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:

3 Challenges to Risk Analysis for Homeland Security
Pages 44-51

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 44...
... The analysis of natural hazard risks is reasonably mature and is derived from both historical data and physics-based modeling. The analysis of terrorism risk is less mature, and it lacks both historical validating data and sociological theory on which to base quantitative models.
Read the entire page →
From page 45...
... The delta also lies alongside the San Andreas Fault belt and is potentially subject to large peak ground accelerations should earthquakes occur along the eastern side of that belt. This natural event, which is not improbable compared to many natural hazards, would likely breach many kilometers of fragile levees; foster rapid saltwater intrusion into the delta from Suisun Bay, the easternmost extension of San Francisco Bay; and potentially compromise the quality of water entering the aqueduct.
Read the entire page →
From page 46...
... Vulnerability studies for natural hazards are, in principle, little different from those used for terrorism risks. In the natural hazards case, vulnerability studies deal with the effects of wind, water, fire, or ground shaking, et cetera, on the built environment.
Read the entire page →
From page 47...
... In particular, risk analyses that do not reflect the ability of terrorists to respond to observed defensive actions tend to overstate the effectiveness of those actions if they ignore the ability of terrorists to switch to different targets and/or attack strategies or understate their effectiveness if they ignore the possibility of deterrence. Therefore, better methods need to be found for incorporating the intentional nature of terrorist attacks into risk analyses, even if done judgmentally or by iterating the results of the analysis to reflect terrorist responses (Dillon et al., 3 Some estimate of success rate can be obtained by "gaming" attacks utilizing real players and conflict simulation models.
Read the entire page →
From page 48...
... Models that incorporate game theory, attacker-defender scenarios, or Bayesian methods to predict threat probabilities that evolve over time in response to observed conditions and monitored behavior provide more appropriate ways of representing the decisions of intelligent adversaries and should be explored.
Read the entire page →
From page 49...
... Physical, analytical, and engineering simulations; and 3. Historical data, including statistics on past terrorist events worldwide, social sciences research into terrorists' behavior, journalist accounts, and terrorists' own writings about motivation and intent.
Read the entire page →
From page 50...
... Historical Data Statistical analysis of observed data is most applicable in cases where extensive historical data are available. Terrorism risk analysis is hampered by datasets that are too sparse and targeted events that are too situation specific.
Read the entire page →
From page 51...
... Even though DHS is not responsible for managing all these aspects of risk -- for example, the Department of Health and Human Services has the primary responsibility for managing public health risks -- it is appropriate and necessary to consider the full spectrum of consequences when performing risk analyses. BOX 3-2 Synopsis of Challenges for Risk Analysis in DHS  Availability and reliability of data  Modeling the decision making and behaviors of intelligent adversaries  Appropriately characterizing and communicating uncertainty in models, data inputs, and results  Methodological issues around implementing risk as a function of threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences  Modeling cascading risks across infrastructures and sectors  Incorporating broader social consequences  Dealing with different perceptions and behaviors about terrorism versus natural hazards  Providing analyses of value to multiple, distributed decision makers  Varying levels of access to necessary information for analysis and decision making  Developing risk analysis communication strategies for various stakeholders
Read the entire page →

Key Terms

  • natural hazards
  • terrorism risk
  • expert elicitation
  • homeland security
  • natural hazard

  • intelligent adversaries
  • risk analyses
  • vulnerability studies
  • hazard risk
  • traditional risk

  • consequence analysis
  • formal expert
  • water supply
  • studies deal
  • francisco bay

  • challenges facing
  • observed data
  • fresh water
  • hazard risks
  • risk models

  • threat risk
  • hazards risk
  • titative risk
  • risk analysts
  • developing risk

  • risk shares
  • rorism risk
  • probabilistic risk
  • assess risk
  • performing risk


    • This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
    More information on Chapter Skim is available.