Research Training in the Biomedical, Behavioral, and Clinical Research Sciences (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix D: Demographic Projections of the Research Workforce in the Biomedical, Clinical, and Behavioral Sciences, 2006-2016
Appendix D: Demographic Projections of the Research Workforce in the Biomedical, Clinical, and Behavioral Sciences, 2006-2016
Pages 125-156
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From page 125... ...
Rates were higher and immigrants who regularly add themselves to it, then the from 1995 to 2001, at 2.5 percent annually for U.S.-trained process of leaving the workforce through retirement and behavioral scientists, 3.7 percent for biomedical scientists, death as well as other changes in status, such as from employ- and 5.5 percent for clinical scientists. From 2001 to 2006, ment to unemployment.
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From page 126... ...
SOURCE: Data extracted from National Science Foundation Survey of Doctorate Recipients, 1973-2006 and NRC analysis. D-1.eps These estimates of the workforce cover not only those fields, those on postdoctorates were 17,000 in 2006, or 7.8 peremployed in jobs related to science (which includes those cent of all those in science employment.
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From page 127... ...
D-2.eps Biomedical 251 250 220 Clinical Behavioral 20 4 203 200 18 8 175 Males per 10 0 Females 150 13 6 124 116 10 8 10 0 10 0 92 92 91 81 75 70 64 50 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2006 Year FIGURE D-3 Sex ratio in the U.S.-trained workforce by major field and survey year, 1995-2006. SOURCE: Data extracted from National Science Foundation Survey of Doctorate Recipients, 1995-2006.
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From page 128... ...
Clinical Behavioral Biomedical 1.0 Age 0.8 Propor tion of Work force 55 + 0.6 0.4 35 -54 0.2 25 -34 0.0 2006 2006 2006 2003 2003 2003 2001 2001 2001 1999 1999 1999 1995 1995 1995 1997 1997 1997 Year FIGURE D-5 Proportional age distribution of U.S.-trained workforce by major field, 1995-2006. SOURCE: Data extracted from National Science Foundation Survey of Doctorate Recipients, 1995-2006.
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From page 129... ...
As a group, they instance, in 2006 in the biomedical field, the foreign-trained have become increasingly female and, in a reversal of previous were slightly more likely to be employed in science and trends, are now slightly younger on average than earlier. slightly less likely to be employed out of science, but the reverse was true in the behavioral field.
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From page 130... ...
In 2007, they were 30 percent of biomedical graduates, to the 1970s. Figure D-9 shows growth rates over 15 years for 23 percent of clinical graduates, and 10 percent of behavioral graduates in each field.
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From page 131... ...
The rising numbers tions between the sizes of the two groups over time are 0.94 of temporary residents among graduates show no apparent among biomedical graduates, 0.99 among clinical graduates, lasting impact, at least so far, from any recent changes in and smaller although still positive at 0.32 among behavioral immigration regulations. graduates.
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From page 132... ...
combination of rising proportions of temporary residents and For temporary residents, intentions to stay in the United rising proportions of them intending to stay in the United States after graduation vary across fields, being generally States implies that, among those newly minted Ph.D.s enterlowest among behavioral graduates and female clinical ing the U.S. workforce, temporary residents are increasingly graduates, intermediate among male clinical graduates, and prominent (Figure D-12)
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From page 133... ...
In both these fields, among biomedical graduates than in the other two fields. All the median age for female graduates was lower than that the graduate sex ratios are well below those in the research for males by half a year to a year, a divergence that started workforce as a whole.
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From page 134... ...
Clinical graduates showed a smaller increase, field, the modal age covered fewer graduates, but then the from 21 to 28 percent. Although biomedical graduates did trend reversed, leaving median ages and modal concentrations not show an increase in this period, they were already at a in 2007 at intermediate levels in each field.
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From page 135... ...
graduates and NRSA predoctoral trainees and fellows by major field, 1970-2007. D-16.eps SOURCE: Data extracted from National Science Foundation Survey of Earned Doctorates, 2007, and NIH IMPACII Database.
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From page 136... ...
TIAA-CREF mortality tables provide appears in each group. some indication of mortality patterns: 79 percent of male This is illustrated in Figure D-19, which covers only male scientists and 87 percent of female scientists should live at biomedical scientists.
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From page 137... ...
D-19.eps SOURCE: NRC analysis. Across the three major fields, patterns of such movement do may have increased in the early 2000s mainly because fewer not vary greatly.
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From page 138... ...
SOURCE: Data extracted from National Science Foundation Survey of Doctorate Recipients, 1993-2006. D-21.eps survey of the Ph.D.
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From page 139... ...
graduates under high-, medium-, and low-growth assumptions, by major field, D-22.eps 1990-2016. SOURCE: Data extracted from National Science Foundation Survey of Earned Doctorates, 2007, and NRC analysis.
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From page 140... ...
FIGURE D-23 Past and projected age distribution of male behavioral graduates, selected years. SOURCE: Data extracted from National Science Foundation Survey of.eps Doctorates, 2007, and NRC analysis.
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From page 141... ...
We projected 1990-2000 trends in estimated immigrant and if so how long, they remain temporary residents, we do cohorts beyond 2000. For male biomedical scientists, based not attempt to predict.
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From page 142... ...
for female behavioral scientists.
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From page 143... ...
We focus primarily on the medium scenario in the discussion and note what variations from it the alternative scenarios suggest. Scenarios Alternative projection assumptions have been reviewed ProJeCtioN reSultS regarding four variables: numbers of graduates, proportion of them who are temporary residents, proportion of temporary- In the medium scenario, the projected research workforce resident graduates who stay in the United States, and number in 2016 will total 306,000 biomedical scientists, 64,000 TABLE D-5 Projected Numbers of Ph.D.
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From page 144... ...
graduates -- at a rate of 4.8 percent percent annually, for a 10-year increment of 11,000 behava nnually rather than just 2.7 percent -- which will not ioral scientists, only half the increment of clinical scientists be true in the other two fields. In the biomedical field, and one-tenth the increment of biomedical scientists.
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From page 145... ...
The constant and low sex ratios among the foreign-trained. sex ratio in the biomedical field, about twice as high as in Another perspective is provided by comparing sex ratios the other fields in 2006, will also fall by 2016, to 145.
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From page 146... ...
A Younger foreign-trained researchers clearly help keep ages predominantly male biomedical professoriate, therefore, will down in the biomedical and clinical fields, although even be training a majority female student body. without them, the workforce in these fields would be younger Median ages among behavioral scientists will rise, but in than in the behavioral field.
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From page 147... ...
Between 2003 and 2006, the proportion small segment of the workforce, between 1.5 and 3 percent out of the labor force among female biomedical scientists fell of the workforce in 2006, could grow 50-250 percent faster by a third, from an unusually high 7.5 percent to a still very
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From page 148... ...
In the behavioral field, The alternatives to the medium scenario provide much the medium 10-year increase is only 9 percent, and the high more variation in the biomedical field than in the other two scenario gives an increase only 2 percentage points higher.
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From page 149... ...
The range And high numbers of graduates would clearly not make up of past growth rates has been narrower in the clinical field in for zero immigrants. Still, because zero immigration is in the past than in the biomedical field, and still narrower in the fact an ahistorical situation, one cannot entirely rule out behavioral field, which is why the scenarios for biomedical an ahistorical increase in graduates that goes beyond past researchers produce much more variation.
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From page 150... ...
D-36.eps In general, more rapid growth implies a younger workforce. female biomedical scientists, who are clearly younger and Regardless of the scenario, however, behavioral scientists will not catch up in age to any other group in any scenario.
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From page 151... ...
2006 median 50 45 40 No Migrants No Migrants No Migrants No Migrants No Migrants No Migrants High Medium High Medium High Medium High Medium High Medium High Medium Low Low Low Low Low Low Scenario FIGURE D-37 Median age in 2016 in alternative scenarios, compared with 2006, by major field and sex. SOURCE: NRC analysis.
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From page 152... ...
In 2003, total U.S. funding for biomedical suggested by the fact that funding, in the 1994-2003 period, research -- from the NIH and other government sources, shifted to some degree from basic biomedical research to industry, and foundations and other private sources -- totaled clinical research,5 at the same time that the clinical workforce $75.5 billion.2 If this were distributed equally among Ph.D.s appeared to be growing faster than the biomedical workforce in the three major fields combined, research funds would (at least where U.S.-trained Ph.D.s are concerned)
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From page 153... ...
However, if one included behavioral Ph.D.s, combin- with subsequent survey estimates. ing the medium projections for the three fields, the projected Alternative projections have been produced by the Bureau workforce growth rate of 3.5 percent annually for 2006-2016 of Labor Statistics9 (BLS)
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From page 154... ...
We make the comparisons neverof psychologists, sociologists, and anthropologists, recogniz- theless in Figure D-42. The growth rates projected in the ing that the "most significant" source of personnel in some 2005 report were too low for biomedical scientists, too high of these categories is individuals with a master's rather than for clinical scientists, and slightly too high for behavioral a doctoral degree.
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From page 155... ...
Monthly Labor Reiew 128(11) :70-101; and NRC analysis.
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From page 156... ...
, funding growth the biomedical field than in the behavioral field and are also will be slower than the projected growth of the biomedical increasing. or clinical workforces, which will be more than 1 percentage The biomedical workforce could therefore be more point faster.
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