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Appendix E: Demographic Projections of the Research Workforce in the Biomedical, Clinical, and Behavioral Sciences, 2006-2016 (Using the System Dynamics Simulation Methodology)
Pages 157-176

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From page 157... ... Scenario (Moderate Risk) : Use 50 percent of the for Scenario 1 in bar-graph form, and Table E-5 shows the value of the specified annual growth rate for each subgroup same projections in table form. Read the entire page →
From page 158... ... 350,000 317,302 Scenario 1 300,000 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 250,000 220,642 Total Work force 200,000 209,274 159,853 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year FIGURE E-2 Total biomedical sciences workforce, 2006-2016. SOURCE: NRC analysis. Read the entire page →
From page 159... ... E-3.eps 80,000 72,957 Scenario 1 70,000 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 60,000 52,743 50,000 Total Work force 48,097 40,000 35,320 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year FIGURE E-4 Total clinical sciences workforce, 2006-2016. SOURCE: NRC analysis. Read the entire page →
From page 160... ... in addition to the separation of male/female 0 APPENDIX E n. 2016 168,983 215,115 139,198 SOURCE: NRC Analysis TABLE E-1 Biomedical Sciences Workforce Projections TABLE E-3 Clinical Sciences Workforce Projections for for AllWorkforce Projections for AllE - 3 Clinical Science Scenarios Scenarios All Workforce Projections for All Scenarios Table Scenarios edical Science CLINICAL BIOMEDICAL Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 2006 35,320 35,320 35,320 2006 159,853 159,853 159,853 2007 36,327 36,859 36,291 2007 162,950 164,598 162,926 2008 37,441 38,654 37,319 2008 166,423 170,244 166,296 2009 38,680 40,763 38,408 2009 170,339 177,046 169,995 2010 40,061 43,256 39,562 2010 174,782 185,354 174,063 2011 41,605 46,221 40,785 2011 179,854 195,662 178,543 2012 43,335 49,765 42,082 2012 185,684 208,677 183,489 2013 45,279 54,024 43,456 2013 192,437 225,425 188,959 2014 47,470 59,162 44,913 2014 200,321 247,417 195,024 2015 49,943 65,388 46,458 2015 209,607 276,908 201,764 2016 52,743 72,957 48,097 2016 220,642 317,302 209,274 SOURCE: NRC AnalysisSOURCE: NRC analysis. Read the entire page →
From page 161... ... E-5.eps TABLE E-4 Breakout of Biomedical Sciences Workforce, 2006-2016, Scenario 1 BIOMEDICAL - SCENARIO 1 DETAILS US Male US Female Foreign Male Foreign Female 2006 80,268 45,828 23,636 10,121 2007 81,782 46,989 23,943 10,236 2008 83,502 48,218 24,337 10,366 2009 85,455 49,522 24,848 10,515 2010 87,675 50,906 25,517 10,684 2011 90,198 52,378 26,401 10,876 2012 93,066 53,946 27,577 11,095 2013 96,327 55,618 29,147 11,345 2014 100,034 57,403 31,254 11,629 2015 104,250 59,312 34,091 11,953 2016 109,044 61,356 37,919 12,322 SOURCE: NRC NRC analysis. SOURCE: Analysis Table E - 5 Breakout of Behavioral Sciences Workforce, 2006-2016, Scenario 1 BEHAVIORAL - SCENARIO 1 DETAILS US Male US Female Foreign Male Foreign Female Read the entire page →
From page 162... ... BEH Male 140,0 00 Breakout of Work force 120,0 00 10 0,0 00 80,0 00 60,000 BIOMEDICAL - SCENARIO 1 DETAILS US Male US Female Foreign Male Foreign Female 40,0 00 2006 80,268 45,828 23,636 10,121 2007 81,782 46,989 23,943 10,236 83,502 00 20,0 2008 48,218 24,337 10,366 2009 85,455 49,522 24,848 10,515 0 2010 87,675 50,906 25,517 10,684 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 90,198 52,378 26,401 10,876 Year 2012 93,066 53,946 27,577 11,095 FIGURE E-6 Breakout of behavioral sciences workforce, 2006-2016, scenario 1. 2013 96,327 55,618 29,147 11,345 SOURCE: NRC analysis. Read the entire page →
From page 163... ... E-7.eps TABLE E-6 Breakout of Clinical Sciences Workforce, 2006-2016, Scenario 1 CLINICAL - SCENARIO 1 DETAILS US Male US Female Foreign Male Foreign Female 2006 9,457 14,706 6,359 4,798 2007 9,737 15,368 6,378 4,844 2008 10,055 16,096 6,398 4,893 2009 10,417 16,902 6,417 4,944 2010 10,829 17,797 6,436 4,998 2011 11,299 18,794 6,456 5,056 2012 11,835 19,909 6,475 5,116 2013 12,446 21,159 6,495 5,179 2014 13,143 22,566 6,515 5,246 2015 13,938 24,154 6,534 5,317 2016 14,846 25,952 6,554 5,391 RCE: NRC Analysis analysis. SOURCE: NRC le E-7: Breakout of Biomedical Sciences Workforce, 2006-2016, Scenario 2 BIOMEDICAL - SCENARIO 2 DETAILS US Male US Female Foreign Male Foreign Female Read the entire page →
From page 164... ... BIO Male 250,00 0 225,000 Number in Work force 200,0 00 CLINICAL - SCENARIO 1 DETAILS 175,00 0 US Male US Female Foreign Male Foreign Female 150,00 0 2006 9,457 14,706 6,359 4,798 125,00 0 2007 9,737 15,368 6,378 4,844 2008 10,055 16,096 6,398 4,893 10 0,0 00 2009 10,417 16,902 6,417 4,944 75,0 00 2010 10,829 17,797 6,436 4,998 50,0 00 2011 11,299 18,794 6,456 5,056 25,00 0 2012 11,835 19,909 6,475 5,116 2013 12,446 21,159 6,495 5,179 0 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2014 13,143 22,566 6,515 5,246 Year 2015 13,938 24,154 6,534 5,317 FIGURE E-8 2016 14,846 25,952 6,554 8.eps 5,391 Breakout of biomedical sciences workforce, 2006-2016, scenario 2. E SOURCE: NRC analysis. Read the entire page →
From page 165... ... BEH Female 200,000 U.S. BEH Male 175,000 Number in Work force 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year FIGURE E-9 Breakout of behavioral sciences workforce, 2006-2016, scenario 2. Read the entire page →
From page 166... ... CLIN Female 60,000 U.S. CLIN Male 50,000 Number in Work force 40,000 BEHAVIORAL - SCENARIO 2 DETAILS US Male US Female Foreign Male Foreign Female 30,000 2006 57,593 62,758 1,457 2,484 2007 58,966 65,165 1,467 2,902 20,000 2008 60,509 67,936 1,478 3,429 2009 62,242 71,135 1,489 4,092 2010 64,190 74,842 1,499 4,928 10,000 2011 66,378 79,148 1,510 5,982 2012 68,838 84,162 1,521 7,311 0 2013 71,602 90,0142006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 8,988 2013 1,532 2012 2014 2015 2016 2014 74,710 96,856 1,544 Year 11,105 2015 FIGURE78,204 E-10 Breakout of 104,868 1,555 13,778 clinical sciences workforce, 2006-2016, scenario 2. Read the entire page →
From page 167... ... BIO M ale 175,000 150,000 Number in Work force 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year FIGURE E-11 Breakout of biomedical sciences workforce, 2006-2016, scenario 3. SOURCE: NRC analysis. Read the entire page →
From page 168... ... B EH Fe male U.S. B EH M ale 125,000 100,000 Number in Work force 75,000 BIOMEDICAL SCENARIO 3 DETAILS US Male US Female Foreign Male Foreign Female 2006 80,268 45,828 23,636 10,121 2007 80,747 50,000 46,823 24,295 11,060 2008 81,255 47,858 25,008 12,175 2009 81,792 48,934 25,776 13,494 2010 82,358 25,000 50,051 26,602 15,052 2011 82,953 51,211 27,490 16,889 2012 83,577 52,416 28,444 19,052 2013 84,230 0 53,666 29,465 21,597 2014 84,913 54,963 2007 2008 30,559 2010 2011 2012 2013 201424,588 2006 2009 2015 2016 2015 85,626 56,308 31,730 28,101 Year 2016E-12 86,369 of behavioral sciences workforce, 2006-2016, scenario 3. Read the entire page →
From page 169... ... CLIN Female U.S. CLIN Male 40,000 Number in Work force 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year FIGURE E-13 Breakout of clinical sciences workforce, 2006-2016, scenario 3. Read the entire page →
From page 170... ... TABLE E-13 Data for U.S.-Trained Ph.D.s Clinical PhD's Annual Avg Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2006 Last 5 yrs Last 7 yrs Males Emp, in S&E 5464 6629 6782 7406 6595 7477 0.2% 1.5% Males Emp, out of S&E 740 478 541 546 1760 1600 38.6% 27.9% Males Unemp, Seeking Work 103 71 101 3 88 6 18.8% -13.4% Males Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 49 99 39 74 29 34 -10.8% -1.7% Males Retired 520 550 880 858 907 862 0.1% -0.3% Males Postdoc 212 204 139 136 206 340 30.0% 20.6% Females Emp, in S&E 6051 7087 7997 9358 9505 11375 4.3% 6.0% Females Emp, out of S&E 575 307 685 846 2084 2172 31.3% 31.0% Females Unemp, Seeking Work 68 99 102 124 168 124 0.1% 3.1% Females Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 217 289 294 332 349 486 9.2% 9.4% Females Retired 299 407 428 503 765 868 14.5% 14.7% Females Postdoc 273 310 292 280 254 549 19.2% 12.6% Biomedical PhD's Annual Avg Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2006 Last 5 yrs Last 7 yrs Males Emp, in S&E 52075 56819 60727 62814 59582 60794 -0.6% 0.0% Males Emp, out of S&E 5052 4370 3818 4657 10032 10772 26.3% 26.0% Males Unemp, Seeking Work 824 538 561 713 1240 464 -7.0% -2.5% Males Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 1089 1159 1205 1337 1385 796 -8.1% -4.8% Males Retired 5533 5252 6939 7617 8010 8312 1.8% 2.8% Males Postdoc 5973 7355 7080 6342 5706 7442 3.5% 0.7% Females Emp, in S&E 16928 24119 22257 25768 28068 29814 3.1% 4.9% Females Emp, out of S&E 2687 2289 2500 3434 4967 6604 18.5% 23.5% Females Unemp, Seeking Work 408 487 576 305 792 582 18.2% 0.1% Females Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 1670 2290 2280 2576 3116 2302 -2.1% 0.1% Females Retired 1082 1667 1533 1831 1924 3033 13.1% 14.0% Females Postdoc 4218 5169 5745 5332 4547 6526 4.5% 1.9% Behavioral PhD's Annual Avg Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2006 Last 5 yrs Last 7 yrs Males Emp, in S&E 48571 50030 51792 51820 25702 45454 -2.5% -1.7% Males Emp, out of S&E 6242 4881 5025 5634 25609 10668 17.9% 16.0% Males Unemp, Seeking Work 284 395 418 281 5888 224 -4.0% -6.6% Males Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 579 723 583 649 524 302 -10.7% -6.9% Males Retired 4630 5214 5638 5982 509 6512 1.8% 2.2% Males Postdoc 714 1171 640 763 6325 945 4.8% 6.8% Females Emp, in S&E 34103 39240 42004 45131 31908 47806 1.2% 2.0% Females Emp, out of S&E 4271 2926 3598 4996 18568 10715 22.9% 28.3% Females Unemp, Seeking Work 289 277 554 509 4171 449 -2.4% -2.7% Females Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 1763 2061 2621 2769 2486 2333 -3.2% -1.6% Females Retired 1329 1637 2328 2992 708 4775 11.9% 15.0% Females Postdoc 1154 1460 1524 1374 4386 1455 1.2% -0.6% SOURCE: National Science Foundation Survey of Doctoral Recipients, 1995 - 2006 SOURCE: Data adapted from National Science Foundation Survey of Doctoral Recipients, 1995-2006. Table E - 14 Data for Foreign-Trained Ph.D.s Read the entire page →
From page 171... ... TABLE E-14 Data for Foreign-Trained Ph.D.s Clinical PhD's Annual Avg Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2006 Last 3 yrs Males Emp, in S&E 6073 5629 4982 4621 4716 0.7% Males Emp, out of S&E 956 465 680 1328 1344 0.4% Males Unemp, Seeking Work 81 205 123 123 0.0% Males Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 74 177 389 176 176 0.0% Males Retired 1223 1137 821 1672 213 -29.1% Males Postdoc Females Emp, in S&E 1007 1051 1689 5494 3841 -10.0% Females Emp, out of S&E 172 185 204 641 846 10.7% Females Unemp, Seeking Work 163 89 52 52 0.0% Females Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 232 142 229 59 -24.7% Females Retired 596 824 621 367 442 6.8% Females Postdoc Biomedical PhD's Annual Avg Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2006 Last 3 yrs Males Emp, in S&E 6760 6246 6864 21386 20381 -1.6% Males Emp, out of S&E 68 85 1908 2275 6.4% Males Unemp, Seeking Work 135 175 737 332 -18.3% Males Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 121 73 189 222 648 64.0% Males Retired 471 708 873 1508 2207 15.5% Males Postdoc Females Emp, in S&E 2575 2781 2622 8859 8857 0.0% Females Emp, out of S&E 178 96 244 461 826 26.4% Females Unemp, Seeking Work 176 128 647 269 -19.5% Females Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 406 236 331 704 169 -25.3% Females Retired 71 318 298 1584 744 -17.7% Females Postdoc Behavioral PhD's Annual Avg Growth 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2006 Last 3 yrs Males Emp, in S&E 987 667 827 690 1044 17.1% Males Emp, out of S&E 776 573 672 397 259 -11.6% Males Unemp, Seeking Work Males Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 154 154 0.0% Males Retired 456 192 296 95 -22.6% Males Postdoc Females Emp, in S&E 779 947 992 768 1513 32.3% Females Emp, out of S&E 257 234 71 1260 817 -11.7% Females Unemp, Seeking Work Females Unemp, Not Seeking, Not Retired 89 108 154 14.2% Females Retired 60 65 156 71 71 0.0% Females Postdoc SOURCE: Dara National Science Foundation Survey ey of College Graduates, SOURCE: adopted from National Science Foundation Surv of College Graduates, 1995-2006. 1995-2006 Table E-15: Ph.D. Read the entire page →
From page 172... ... are SD models to capture the key structural relationships that based on growth rates determined from the data for the spedefine a social system. The structure, in turn, produces the cific demographic group and shown earlier in Tables E-13 dynamic behavior of interest. Read the entire page →
From page 173... ... workforce as in Scenarios 1 and 2 and in Figure E-14.) The E-14.eps For Scenario 3, a slightly different stock-and-flow struc- inclusion of the supply pipeline in Scenario 3 is the reason ture is used that includes more of the "supply pipeline" that this scenario is considered low risk. Read the entire page →
From page 174... ... The values in the rightmost columns are the average three major workforces (i.e., biomedical science, clinical annual growth rates using the past 5 years of data (i.e., 2001 science, and behavioral science) Read the entire page →
From page 175... ... APPENDIX E TABLE E-15 Ph.D. Data Used in Scenario 3 Doctorates by Year, Citizenship and Gender FEMALES 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Annual Avg Growth Last 5 yrs Biomedical Sciences Citizens 1528 1683 1670 1596 1639 1738 1830 1897 2.7% Permanent Residents 218 176 182 182 151 126 142 185 0.3% Temporary Residents 442 532 476 480 549 600 754 897 17.7% Unknown 17 7 5 4 20 29 35 16 44.0% Clinical Sciences Citizens 650 762 713 762 797 826 827 860 4.1% Permanent Residents 34 41 43 42 33 48 52 54 5.1% Temporary Residents 133 144 140 172 149 180 207 214 10.6% Unknown 7 9 4 8 12 11 22 9 25.0% Behavioral Sciences Citizens 2487 2523 2317 2250 2301 2240 2260 2325 0.1% Permanent Residents 81 79 72 69 63 69 85 88 4.4% Temporary Residents 124 159 142 152 186 190 187 206 9.0% Unknown 6 2 6 5 6 18 12 13 23.3% MALES 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Annual Avg Growth Last 5 yrs Biomedical Sciences Citizens 1910 1937 1965 1974 1913 1990 2018 2074 1.1% Permanent Residents 259 188 155 134 114 102 111 118 -4.8% Temporary Residents 782 804 725 742 788 805 889 995 7.4% Unknown 30 4 17 7 15 20 27 26 10.6% Clinical Sciences Citizens 275 307 298 299 316 307 326 322 1.6% Permanent Residents 47 33 32 21 27 20 29 32 0.0% Temporary Residents 117 131 150 131 154 155 167 174 3.2% Unknown 8 4 8 7 8 8 7 12 10.0% Behavioral Sciences Citizens 1310 1296 1200 1158 1138 1201 1110 1049 -2.5% Permanent Residents 38 56 42 47 33 28 31 25 -8.1% Temporary Residents 141 151 133 113 135 142 163 153 3.0% Unknown 7 4 5 2 11 9 5 5 0.0% Read the entire page →

From page 157...

... Scenario (Moderate Risk) : Use 50 percent of the for Scenario 1 in bar-graph form, and Table E-5 shows the value of the specified annual growth rate for each subgroup same projections in table form.

Appendix E: Demographic Projections of the Research Workforce in the Biomedical, Clinical, and Behavioral Sciences, 2006-2016 (Using the System Dynamics Simulation Methodology) Pages 157-176

Appendix E: Demographic Projections of the Research Workforce in the Biomedical, Clinical, and Behavioral Sciences, 2006-2016 (Using the System Dynamics Simulation Methodology)
Pages 157-176