Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences (2011) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
2 Learning and Evaluation
2 Learning and Evaluation
Pages 23-32
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 23... ...
national security. The IC's commitment is seen in its after-action lessons-learned procedures and in the voluminous literature produced by former senior intelligence officers, former directors of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
|
From page 24... ...
The Defense Intelligence Journal is another source of new analytical and scientific techniques. The IC has also supported the numerous publications reviewing the contribution to learning from structured analytical techniques, such as analysis of competing hypotheses, team A/B work, and alternative futures (Heuer and Pherson, 2010; U.S.
|
From page 25... ...
Creating conditions that counter hindsight bias is one way to improve intelligence analysis, by helping analysts to make better use of the evidence at hand and to recognize its limits. Similar patterns are found in another judgment task central to intelligence analysis: assessing the confidence to place in analyses.
|
From page 26... ...
Analytical Methods One recurrent element in successful debiasing procedures is helping individuals to organize their thought processes without losing the intuition and judgment that their tasks require. For example, the contrast between inside and outside views helps users to combine case-specific information (inside)
|
From page 27... ...
Signal detection theory makes the fundamental, and often nonintuitive, distinction between what people know and what they reveal in their behavior. The former depends on their discrimination ability, the latter on their incentives for avoiding particular kinds of error (e.g., appearing to cry wolf)
|
From page 28... ...
program designed to persuade youngsters not to use illegal drugs was ineffective, whereas policeprobation collaborations have been shown to reduce criminal recidivism (Lum, 2009)
|
From page 29... ...
A third is hiring individuals suited to the job. For many analyst positions, that will mean individuals with strong intellectual skills, perhaps in preference over individuals with strong domain-specific knowledge.
|
From page 30... ...
In National Research Coun cil, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B
|
From page 31... ...
. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations.
|
From page 32... ...
In National Research Council, Intelligence Analy sis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.