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Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences (2011) / Chapter Skim
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7 Conclusions and Recommendations
Pages 81-94

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From page 81...
... seeks to reduce uncertainty and provide warning about potential threats to the national security of the United States, it faces increasing demands for analyses that are accurate, actionable, and properly qualified, so that decision makers know how much confidence the analyses warrant. Producing those analyses requires great institutional and intellectual agility as threats emerge from new quarters and require different kinds and combinations of expertise.
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From page 82...
... The committee's recommendations are designed to deliver maximum improvement with minimal disruption, helping analysts to do their normal work better. We believe that dramatic improvements in the analytic process are possible within existing organizational constraints.
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From page 83...
... Its behavioral foci have been fairly narrow, such as the notoriously difficult task of reading leaders' intentions and the somewhat more tractable tasks of interpreting national and international politics. As a result, the IC has developed little internal expertise on many behavioral and social science issues.
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From page 84...
... Such evidence-based analysis should be used both to examine existing and proposed approaches, in order to determine their compatibility with the science, and to study their actual performance empirically, under normal working conditions. Although this recommendation reflects Enterprise Objectives 2 and 5 of the National Intelligence Strategy (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2009; see Box 1-1 in Chapter 1)
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From page 85...
... ANALYTIC METHODS The conditions that support learning are among the best understood aspects of human behavior. Those conditions include large quantities of unambiguous feedback, with properly aligned incentives.
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From page 86...
... Thus the DNI must ensure that numeric probabilities are implemented in a constructive way, using them for useful feedback, not destructive criticism. Recommendation 2 The Director of National Intelligence should ensure that the intel ligence community adopts scientifically validated analytical methods and subjects all of its methods to performance evaluation.
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From page 87...
... WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT The quality of the human resource pool places greater constraints on an organization's human capital than any other single factor. It is the focus of Enterprise Objective 6 of the National Intelligence Strategy (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2009; see Box 1-1 in Chapter 1)
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From page 88...
... Making them part of IC analysts' basic intellectual repertoire will increase analysts' ability to address their customers' needs. Recommendation 3 The Director of National Intelligence should ensure that intelligence community agencies use evidence-based methods to recruit, select, train, motivate, and retain an adaptive workforce able to achieve the performance levels required by intelligence community missions.
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From page 89...
... Given these contradictory possibilities, we recommend that the IC undertake systematic empirical study of these "natural experiments," assessing the impacts of the various methods for different uses and users. Although not expensive, such evaluations require methodological sophistication in order to create fair tests and to provide useful guidance on how the innovations could be improved.
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From page 90...
... . However, there are many potential barriers to effective communication, including the natural tendency to exaggerate how well one communicates, the frequent lack of direct contact between analysts and their customers, and the many steps in the IC review, coordination, and approval process, each capable of improving or degrading how well the resulting report conveys the original analysts' intent.
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From page 91...
... At the same time, new technologies offer new capabilities for data gathering, data sharing, and collaboration which might aid or distract analysts. The IC has received additional resources, along with growing public awareness of its importance.
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From page 92...
... Any change involves a gamble, sacrificing the relative stability of current practices in return for the promise of improved future performance. Change is necessary today, because traditional analytical methods and institutional arrangements are increasingly challenged by the demands on IC analysis.
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From page 93...
... . Human Capital Joint Intelligence Community Duty Assignments.
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Key Terms

  • intelligence analysis
  • intelligence community
  • intelligence strategy
  • analytical methods
  • analytic methods

  • numeric probabilities
  • workforce development
  • human capital
  • systematic empirical
  • empirical evaluation

  • enterprise objectives
  • intelligence officers
  • analytical enterprise
  • behavioral research
  • own performance

  • science findings
  • ligence community
  • science expertise
  • human resource
  • sciences provide

  • unambiguous feedback
  • current practices
  • community directive
  • independent advisory
  • allowing analysts

  • proper incentives
  • strong leadership
  • enterprise objective
  • stable individual
  • familiarize intelligence


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