National Earthquake Resilience Research, Implementation, and Outreach (2011) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 9-26
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From page 9... ...
The ability of a community to recover from such a disaster reflects its resilience, and it is the many factors that contribute to earth quake resilience that are the focus of this report. Specifically, we provide a roadmap for building community resilience within the context of the Strategic Plan of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)
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From page 10... ...
The seismic hazard for a specified site is a probabilistic forecast of how intense the earthquake effects will be at that site. In contrast, seismic risk is a probabilistic forecast of the damage to society that will be caused by earthquakes, usually measured in terms of casualties and economic losses in a
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From page 11... ...
Risk analysis seeks to quantify the risk equation in a framework that allows the impact of political policies and economic investments to be evaluated, to inform the decision-making processes that contribute to risk reduction. Risk quantification is a difficult problem, because it requires detailed knowledge of the natural and the built environments, as well as an understanding of both earthquake and human behaviors.
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From page 12... ...
is an example of a probabilistic study -- an estimate of national earthquake risk that used HAZUS-MH software (Box 1.1) together with input from Census 2000 data and the 2002 USGS National Seismic Hazard Map.
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estimate of AEL ($4.4 billion) for residential and commercial building-related direct economic losses by a factor of 2.5 to include indirect economic losses, the social costs of death and injury, as well as direct and indirect losses to the
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. Uncertainties are associated with the methodologies, the assumptions, and databases used to estimate the ground motions and building inventories, the modeling of building responses, and the correlation of expected economic and social losses to the estimated physical damages.
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The basic earth science and geotechnical research and data that the NEHRP agencies provide to communities help to reduce these types of epistemic uncertainty, whereas an understanding of the intrinsic aleatory uncertainty is achieved through scientific research into the processes that cause earthquakes. Accurate loss estimation models increase public confidence in making seismic risk management decisions.
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From page 16... ...
Basic research and earthquake monitoring have significantly advanced the understanding of the geologic processes that cause earthquakes, the characteristics of earthquake faults, the nature of seismicity, and the propagation of seismic waves. This understanding has been incorporated into seismic hazard assessments, earthquake potential assessments, building codes and design criteria, rapid assessments of earthquake impacts, and scenarios for risk mitigation and response planning.
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From page 17... ...
Development of advanced earthquake engineering technologies for use in design and construction has greatly improved the cost-effectiveness of earthquake-resistant design and construction while giving options with predicted decision consequences. These techniques include new methods for reducing the seismic risk associated with nonstructural components, base isolation methods for dissipating seismic energy in buildings, and performance-based design approaches.
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From page 18... ...
NEHRP also has participated in the development of the Global Seismographic Network to provide data on seismic events worldwide. As well as this list of important accomplishments cited in the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan, the following range of NEHRP accomplishments in the social science arena were described in NRC (2006a)
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19 INTRODUCTION FIGURE 1.4 Sample PAGER output for the strong and damaging February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand.
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. The results are complex social networks of power relationships that constrain the adoption of hazard mitigation poli cies and practices at local and regional levels.
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Existing and ongoing research is documenting and modeling the mix of expected and improvised responses by emergency management personnel, the public and private organizations of which they are members, and the multiorganizational networks within which these individual and organizational responses are nested. As a result of this research, a range of decision support tools is now being developed for emergency management practitioners.
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From page 22... ...
The plan defines a vision of "a nation that is earthquake resilient in public safety, economic strength, and national security," and articulates the NEHRP mission "to develop, disseminate, and promote knowledge, tools, and practices for earthquake risk reduction -- through coordinated, multidisciplinary, interagency partnerships among NEHRP agencies and their stakeholders -- that improve the Nation's earthquake resilience in public safety, economic, strength, and national security." The plan identifies three goals with fourteen objectives (listed below) , plus nine strategic priorities (presented in Appendix A)
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Objective 9: Improve the accuracy, timeliness, and content of earthquake information products. Objective 10: Develop comprehensive earthquake risk scenarios and risk assessments.
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to the committee recognized that there would be a requirement for some sustained activities under the NEHRP program after this 20-year period. To address the charge, the NRC assembled a committee of 12 experts with disciplinary expertise spanning earthquake and structural engineering; seismology, engineering geology, and earth system science; disaster and emergency management; and the social and economic components of resilience and disaster recovery.
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From page 25... ...
Chapter 3 contains descriptions of the 18 broad, integrated tasks comprising the elements of a roadmap to achieve national earthquake resilience focusing on the specific outcomes that could be achieved in a 20-year timeframe, and the elements realizable within 5 years. These tasks are described in terms of the proposed activity and actions, existing knowledge and current capabilities, enabling requirements, and implementation issues.
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