Policy Options for Reducing Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Transportation Special Report 307 (2011) / Chapter Skim
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1 Study Purpose and Background
1 Study Purpose and Background
Pages 31-52
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Federal fuel economy standards remained flat, and Americans increasingly bought larger and more fuel-intensive cars, pickup trucks, and sport utility vehicles. Transportation activity grew rapidly in nearly all modes, particularly by car, truck, and airplane.
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And the offshore oil drilling calamity in the Gulf of Mexico during spring and summer 2010, which occurred while this study was under way, is another compelling reason for finding ways to curtail demand for oil and to lessen the incentive for exploiting increasingly costly and environmentally risky oil reserves. In the case of climate change, much research and modeling have been undertaken during the past decade to ascertain the magnitude of reductions in fossil fuel use and GHG emissions required worldwide and on the part of the United States to limit global climate risks.1 In the aggregate, 1 A review of the state of climate change science is contained in the recent suite of reports produced by the National Research Council project America's Climate Choices.
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For the transportation sector to contribute meaningfully to these reductions will almost certainly require early and sustained increases in the energy and emissions efficiency of vehicles and system operations and an eventual shift to low- and no-carbon fuels. Absent dramatic progress in increasing system efficiency and diversifying the energy supply, the total volume of transportation activity may need to be reduced, particularly in the most energy- and emissions-intensive transportation modes.
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over the years to promote automotive fuel efficiency and oil conservation, including excise taxes on "gas-guzzling" cars, fuel economy labeling requirements for new cars and light trucks, a national highway speed limit, capital grants for the supply of mass transit services, and programs to promote ridesharing. For the most part, the other major domestic freight and passenger modes -- trucking, rail, and aviation -- have not been subject to similar federal efforts intended to curtail their energy consumption.
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Even as EPA was devising GHG performance standards for light-duty vehicles during 2009, Congress was working on legislation to create a broader, marketoriented means of GHG reduction through economywide carbon pricing. The basic premise of such a program is that the setting of a national price on emissions of CO2 and other GHGs would cause an increase in the retail price of hydrocarbon fuels used across the economy, including the gasoline, diesel, and jet fuels used in transportation.
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These assumptions derive largely from the transportation sector's lack of energy alternatives, which contributes to a low fuel price elasticity of demand. Whereas operators of large electric power plants can substitute natural gas for coal, transportation vehicles have little room for energy storage, must be refueled often, and have significant range and power requirements that demand fuels with high energy density and handling ease.
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Although carbon pricing programs are in effect in Europe and to a limited degree in some regions of the United States, there is no guarantee that such programs, or any other economywide measures, will be instituted nationally during the next decade or more. The prospect that the GHG problem may become even harder to control as time passes and emissions accumulate could be a factor favoring sector-based policies.
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This price volatility creates many challenges for petroleum users and suppliers, as well as for manufacturers of vehicles and other products that use petroleum fuels and for investors in alternative energy supplies. A particular concern is that oil price volatility can have pernicious effects on the diversification of transportation energy sources and technologies by discouraging capital-intensive investments that require long payoff periods.
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Conversely, since the same profit and efficiency motives do not exist for most cars and light trucks owned by private households, will fuel pricing policies produce a weaker energy consumption effect?
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The transportation sector accounts for about two-thirds of the liquid petroleum fuels consumed each year in the United States. By far the largest users are cars, trucks, and other motor vehicles.
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The main reason why highway vehicles consume so much petroleum is that they account for the large majority of the people and goods moved in transportation. Cars and light trucks account for 85 percent of all passenger miles, while airlines account for the next largest share at 12 percent (Figure 1-2)
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domestic freight ton-miles by mode, 2007. NOTE: Percentage shares by mode were calculated by the committee on the basis of various government and industry data sources.
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. Planned increases in federal fuel economy and GHG performance standards are assumed to counteract most of the upward pressure on energy demand that will be caused by a growing U.S.
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5,000 Freight trucks Freight rail 4,000 Domestic shipping 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 20 6 20 7 20 8 20 9 20 22 20 3 20 4 20 5 20 6 20 7 20 8 20 9 20 0 32 20 3 20 4 35 20 0 20 2 20 3 20 4 20 5 20 6 20 7 20 8 20 9 20 1 20 1 20 1 2 3 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 20 20 20 figure 1-5 AEO 2010 reference case projections of energy use (in British thermal units) by major domestic freight modes through 2035.
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In the case of light-duty vehicles, gasoline consumption is projected to remain flat during the period as a result of the tighter federal fuel economy and GHG performance standards as well as the increasing use of ethanol to replace some gasoline in compliance with federal renewable fuels mandates (Figure 1-6)
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Transportation's share of national energy consumption will therefore remain fairly stable. Transportation Energy Use and GHG Buildup Concerns over energy consumption and GHG emissions are interrelated because most of the energy used throughout the world is derived from fossil fuels.
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SOURCE: http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/. the United States accounted for about 20 percent of world energy-related emissions of CO2 in 2007.6 The appendix explains why scientists and others are urging action to stabilize GHG concentrations by making deep emissions reductions over the next several decades.
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These figures are consistent with those used by others, including Heywood (2008, 7) , who assumes that petroleum fuel production and distribution processes add about 20 percent to total carbon emissions from petroleum fuel consumption.
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If the boundaries of the transportation sector are extended further, emissions sources can be considered even more extensive, encompassing the activities involved in the construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation facilities and the materials and energy used in the manufacture and disposal of transportation vehicles and their parts. Steel, aluminum, cement, and asphalt -- key materials in transportation infrastructure and equipment -- are produced through energy-intensive industrial processes that release CO2 from fossil fuel combustion.
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transportation sector. Chapter 5 examines several policy options and their ability to affect the main sources of transportation energy use and emissions in the future.
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Adopting policies that will cause both the users and suppliers of transportation fuels and vehicles to respond with a strong interest in saving energy and reducing emissions is the fundamental policy challenge. References abbreviation TRB Transportation Research Board Council on Foreign Relations.
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