Space Studies Board Annual Report 2010 (2011) / Chapter Skim
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5 Summaries of Major Reports
5 Summaries of Major Reports
Pages 43-104
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From page 43... ...
, as noted. One report was released in 2009 but published in 2010 -- An Enabling Foundation for NASA's Earth and Space Mission -- its Summary was reprinted in Space Studies Board Annual Report -- 2009.
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With NOTE: "Executive Summary" reprinted from Assessment of Impediments to Interagency Collaboration on Space and Earth Science Missions, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2010, pp. 1-4, released in prepublication form on November 23, 2010.
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as a result of interagency collaboration is a source of technical and programmatic risks. Such risks could include failure to meet agreed technical performance requirements, compromised system reliability, unacceptable schedule delays, or cost overruns, and mitigating such shortfalls requires proactive management and attention.
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From page 46... ...
This committee concurs with the decadal survey committee, which concluded that solutions to these issues will require action at a level of the federal government above that of the agencies. FACILITATING SUCCESSFUL COLLABORATIONS Successful interagency collaborations (i.e., those that have achieved their mission objectives and satisfied sponsor goals)
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• Adequate funding and stakeholder support to complete the task. Funding adequacy is based on technically credible cost estimates with explicitly stated confidence levels.
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This conclusion is based on the committee's extensive reviews conducted at fundamental research laboratories at six NASA centers (Ames Research Center, Glenn Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Langley Research Center, and Marshall Space Flight Center) , discussions with a few hundred scientists and engineers, both during the reviews and in private sessions, and in-depth meetings with senior technology managers at each of the NASA centers.
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Capabilities, once destroyed, cannot be reconstituted rapidly at will. Laboratory capabilities essential to the formulation and execution of NASA's future missions must be properly resourced.
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The lack of timely maintenance can lead to safety issues, particularly with large, high-powered equipment. A notable exception is the new science building commissioned at Goddard Space Flight Center in 2009.
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51 Summaries of Major Reports Finding 4. Based on the experience and expertise of its members, the committee believes that the equipment and facilities at NASA's basic research laboratories are inferior to those at comparable DOE laboratories, top-tier U.S.
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conduct a study to: • Review the body of existing studies related to NASA space and Earth science missions and identify their key causes of cost growth and strategies for mitigating cost growth; • Assess whether those key causes remain applicable in the current environment and identify any new major causes; and • Evaluate effectiveness of current and planned NASA cost growth mitigation strategies and, as appropriate, recommend new strategies to ensure frequent mission opportunities. As part of this effort, NASA also asked the NRC to "note what differences, if any, exist with regard to Earth science compared with space science missions." COST GROWTH -- MAGNITUDE AND CAUSES NASA identified 10 cost studies and related analyses that this study uses as its primary references (listed in the References chapter and in Table 1.1)
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From page 53... ...
. Initial cost -- directed missions $950M Initial cost -- AO missions Cost growth -- 14 missions with most cost growth $900M Cost growth -- 26 missions with least cost growth These 14 missions together account $850M for 92% of the total cost growth for $800M all 40 missions in this figure $750M Initial Cost Estimate / Absolute Cost Growth $700M $650M $600M $550M $500M $450M These 26 missions together account $400M for just 8% of the total cost growth for all 40 missions in this figure $350M $300M $250M $200M $150M $100M $50M $0M -$50M G TF M LIP rob M sen , 2 B, EO R, er, 06 004 ST 1, 03 004 C E0 SW U , 2 M SA pac 99 EO , 2 20 200 TI -A 05 FU SS 20 1 FA AC 999 M RC 996 M E- L, TH GE 01 TR MI 200 M ar 19 7 N S, 99 SI C vity 00 AC R, 98 EO , 1 96 La IFT AT 6 D sa 00 00 IC p I -7, SWED a, G AS 200 04 G EX 99 C es 200 R tou , 20 D,0 W 1, 1 999 G E, 98 SO T, 20 H /M 0 IM , 2 Lu E 20 St s P osp TR rdu hfin cto M M 19 er, 199 EA 19 7 LO O ra , 2 A P3 es SO e on is 3 Hr0 S- 1 02 E g02 ee t 4 6 R T, t, C E, ET P 0 AP II, 19 ar Pr 98 AL , 1 1 en , 8 R1 M ur G , 1 99 19 8 R IR 9 a at e E m 19 nd , 2 , 2 A 0 00 n,0 ER 200 S E, SE I, 2 02 E, AC S, 0 M st, d r, -02 S0 35 E E, S- 997 O O2 Aq 2 D0 , 20 1 02 19 S0 ua 20 98 ,2 0 3 00 2 96 FIGURE S.2 Ranking of 40 NASA science missions in terms of absolute cost growth in excess of reserves in millions of dollars, excluding launch, mission operations, and data analysis, with initial cost and launch date for each mission also shown.
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From page 54... ...
Successful implementation of a comprehensive, integrated strategy to control cost and schedule growth of NASA Earth and space science missions would benefit both NASA and the nation, while enabling NASA to more efficiently and effectively carry out these critical missions. Finding.
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Parametric cost models rely on observations rather than opinion, are an excellent tool for answering "what-if" questions quickly, and provide statistically sound information about the confidence level of cost estimates. In contrast, the process used within NASA to generate cost estimates on the basis of detailed engineering assessments does not provide a statistical confidence level and, in retrospect, has generally been less accurate than parametric cost models in estimating the cost of NASA Earth and space science missions.2 A project manager or principal investigator who is personally determined to control costs can be of great assistance in avoiding cost growth.
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From page 56... ...
The limited time and resources typically available in phases A and B to mature new technology and solidify system design parameters contribute to cost growth through higher risk and unrealistic cost estimates. Instrument technology is particularly important because Earth and space science missions generally require special-purpose, one-of-a-kind components.
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However, the size of the cost growth of Earth and space science missions has been comparable. Both Earth and space science missions have shown good correlation between (1)
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As the National Research Council's (NRC's) Committee to Review Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies noted in its August 2009 interim report (NRC, 2009)
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The LSST is to be constructed in Chile and has several science missions as well as the capability of observing NEOs. Although the primary mirror for the LSST has been cast and is being polished, the telescope has not been fully funded and is pending prioritization in the astronomy and astrophysics decadal survey of the NRC that is currently underway.
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From page 60... ...
In addition to spacecraft reconnaissance missions as needed, the committee concluded that vigorous, groundbased characterization at modest cost is important for the NEO task. Modest funding could support optical observations of already-known and newly discovered asteroids and comets to obtain some types of information on this broad range of objects, such as their reflectivity as a function of color, to help infer their surface properties and mineralogy, and their rotation properties.
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61 Summaries of Major Reports 2. "Slow-push" or "slow-pull" methods.
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Nature 361:40-44. Harris, A.W., Space Science Institute.
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The project's statement of task calls for delivery of two reports -- an interim report and a final survey report. PURPOSE OF THIS INTERIM REPORT During the period of the decadal survey's development, NASA received guidance in the fiscal year 2011 presidential budget request that directed it to extend the lifetime of the International Space Station (ISS)
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INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES The International Space Station provides a unique platform for research, and past studies have noted the critical importance of its research capabilities to support the goal of long-term human exploration in space.1 Although it is difficult to predict the timing for the transition of important research questions from ground- to space-based investigations, the committee identifies in this interim report a number of broad topics that represent near-term opportunities for ISS research. These topics, which are not prioritized, fall under the following general areas: • Plant and microbial research to increase fundamental knowledge of the gravitational response and potentially to advance goals for the development of bioregenerative life support; • Behavioral research to mitigate the detrimental effects of the spaceflight environment on astronauts' functioning and health; • Human and animal biology research to increase basic understanding of the effects of spaceflight on biological systems and to develop critically needed countermeasures to mitigate the negative biological effects of spaceflight on astronauts' health, safety, and performance; • Physical sciences research to explore fundamental laws of the universe and basic physical phenomena in the absence of the confounding effects of gravity; and • Translational and applied research in physical sciences that can provide a foundation of knowledge for the development of systems and technologies enabling human and robotic exploration.
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From page 65... ...
The international context also played an important role in the committee's deliberations, and many of the large projects involve international collaboration as well as private donors and foundations. The priority science objectives chosen by the survey committee for the decade 2012-2021 are searching for the first stars, galaxies, and black holes; seeking nearby habitable planets; and advancing understanding of the fundamental physics of the universe.
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From page 66... ...
Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) -- a low-frequency gravitational wave observatory that will open an entirely new window on the cosmos by measuring ripples in space-time caused by many new sources, including nearby white dwarf stars, and will probe the nature of black holes.
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SPICA mission planets; cycling of matter through the interstellar medium (Augmentation to) the NASA Broad, but including especially cosmic microwave $15M/year additional Page 221 Suborbital Program background and particle astrophysics (Augmentation to)
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-- NSF/DOE; U.S. join and active galactic nucleus ˇ European Cerenkov science Telescope Array a The survey's construction-cost appraisals for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST)
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ESA and JAXAd cycles, and stellar astrophysics a The survey's cost appraisals for Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) , Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA)
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Looking forward to the coming decade, scientists anticipate further advances that build on these results. The Astro2010 Science Frontiers Panel on Cosmology and Fundamental Physics was tasked to identify and articulate the scientific themes that will define the frontier in cosmology and fundamental physics (CFP)
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Over the past decade, cosmological observations have confirmed these predictions. Over the coming decade, it may be possible to detect the gravitational waves produced by inflation, and thereby infer the inflationary energy scale, through measurements of the polarization of the microwave background.
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Gravitational waves, on the verge of being detected, can be used both to study astrophysical objects of central importance to current astronomy and to perform precision tests of general relativity. The strongest known sources of gravitational waves involve extreme conditions -- black holes and neutron stars (and especially the tight binary systems containing them)
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• Search for ultra-long-wavelength gravitational waves through measurements of CMB B-mode polarization, achieving sensitivities to the tensor-scalar ratio at the level set by astronomical foregrounds. Detection of these gravitational waves would determine the energy scale of inflation.
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To appreciate the impact of the galactic neighborhood, first consider studies of the universe on the largest scales. The interpretation of observations of the most distant galaxies is built on a foundation of knowledge established in the galactic neighborhood, including knowledge about the evolution of stellar populations, the existence of dark matter, the scaling relations of supermassive black holes, the effects of feedback from supernovae, the importance of accretion, the relationship between star formation and gas density, and the stellar initial mass function, among many others.
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This fact is particularly important for assessing processes of feedback from star formation to the ISM, CGM, and IGM. In assessing the scientific potential of the galactic neighborhood over the coming decade, the Panel on the Galactic Neighborhood faced a difficult task, given that the galactic neighborhood is the arena within which the interaction of nearly all astrophysical systems can be witnessed.
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-- St. Paul Irish Codex, translated by Robin Flower SUMMARY The study of galaxies across cosmic time encompasses the main constituents of the universe across 90 percent of its history, from the formation and evolution of structures such as galaxies, clusters of galaxies, and the "cosmic web" of intergalactic matter, to the stars, gas, dust, supermassive black holes, and dark matter of which they are composed.
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The panel therefore concluded: • It is most important to obtain Hubble Space Telescope (HST) -like imaging to determine the morphologies, sizes, density profiles, and substructure of dark matter, on scales from galaxies to clusters, by means of weak and strong gravitational lensing, in lens samples at least an order-of-magnitude larger than currently available.
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To create a full evolutionary picture for galaxies, study of the following is needed: the star-formation rate, Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN) activity, star-formation history, stellar mass, and stellar and gas-phase metallicity in galaxies at z ~ 1-3, when the cosmic star formation and black hole growth rates peaked.
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To understand the details of accretion onto supermassive black holes, jet formation, and energy dissipation, the panel concluded: • It is most important to have sensitive X-ray spectroscopy of actively accreting black holes (AGN) to probe accretion disk and jet physics close to the black hole as well as to determine the spin distribution function of the local SMBH population.
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The panel concluded: • The search for gravitational radiation from merging supermassive black holes, at lower frequencies than are probed with the Laser Interferometer Gravity Observatory, is very important for an understanding of the buildup of supermassive black holes. What Were the First Objects to Light Up the Universe and When Did They Do It?
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The panel concluded: • It is very important to do multiwavelength surveys to detect galaxies, quasars, and GRBs residing in the late stages of reionization at 6 < z < 8, including near-infrared surveys for galaxies and quasars, hard X-ray or gammaray monitoring for GRBs, and time-variability surveys for supernovae or hypernovae. Theory and Laboratory Astrophysics in the Next Decade Underlying all of astronomy and astrophysics is critical work in theory and other intellectual infrastructure, such as laboratory astrophysics.
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Now is the time to take advantage of this progress to answer some of the key questions of our cosmic origins that have inspired scientists and fascinated the public. The Astro2010 Science Frontiers Panel on Planetary Systems and Star Formation was charged to consider science opportunities in the domain of planetary systems and star formation -- including the perspectives of astrochemistry and exobiology -- spanning studies of molecular clouds, protoplanetary and debris disks, and extrasolar planets, and the implications for such investigations that can be gained from ground-based studies of solar system bodies other than the Sun.3 The panel identifies four central questions that are ripe for answering and one area of unusual discovery potential, and it offers recommendations for implementing the technological advances that can speed us on our way.
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The superb new high-resolution, high-contrast imaging capabilities of the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) , the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST)
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Yet these results apply just to the 14 percent of stars with close-in giant planets detectable with current techniques. The actual frequency of planetary systems in the galaxy and the full extent of their diversity, especially for small, rocky worlds similar to Earth, await discovery in the coming decade.
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The characterization effort lies beyond the coming decade, but it could be achieved in the decade following, provided that the frequency of Earth analogs is not too low. The panel recommends the following: • A strong program to develop the requisite technologies needed for characterization should be maintained over the coming decade.
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From page 86... ...
Because astronomers understand stars well, they have the confidence to use them as cosmic probes to trace the history of cosmic expansion; but because this understanding is not complete, there is much to learn about the subtle interplay of convection, rotation, and magnetism or the not-so-subtle violent events that destroy stars or transform them into neutron stars or black holes. Although the topics of stars and their changes over time comprise great chunks of introductory astronomy textbooks and although the tools for these investigations are tested and sharp, many of the simplest assertions about the formation of white dwarfs, mass loss from giant stars, and the evolution of binary stars are based on conjecture and a slender foundation of facts.
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In this report, the Astro2010 Science Frontiers Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolution sketches the most fertile opportunities for the coming decade in the field of stars and stellar evolution. The panel is confident that it will prove a fruitful decade for this field of astronomy, with the resolution of today's questions producing many new problems and possibilities.
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Unanswered questions about the magnetic fields and rotation of stars carry through to similar questions about the exotic remnants that they leave behind as neutron stars and black holes. These are exceptional places in the universe where understanding of physics is extended beyond the reach of any laboratory.
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From page 89... ...
In the coming decade, X-ray spectroscopy should be a powerful technique for expanding the slender sample of spinning black holes, all identified in binaries. Most stars surely become white dwarfs, but present understanding of the white dwarf mass for a main sequence star of a given initial mass is seriously incomplete.
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From page 90... ...
IXO will explore the role of feedback in galaxy evolution by connecting energetic processes within galaxies with the physical state and chemical composition of hot gas around and between galaxies and within galaxy clusters and groups. Time-resolved, high-resolution spectroscopy with IXO will probe the physics of neutron stars and black holes.
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This includes research grants -- in both observation and theory and for laboratory astrophysics, technology development, and the Suborbital program. The panel, recognizing that these are core activities that underlie the NASA astrophysics
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The revolutionary improvement over the unaided eye that Galileo's telescope provided in angular resolution and sensitivity began a transformation and expansion of our knowledge of the universe that continues to this day. The OIR ground-based projects and activities recommended for the decade 2011-2020 are the next step that will open up unprecedented capabilities and opportunities ranging from discovery in our solar system and the realms of exoplanets and black holes to understanding of the earliest objects in the universe and the foundations of the cosmos itself.
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bands, GSMT will be crucial for detailed follow-up investigations of discoveries from existing and planned facilities, including the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA)
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4. The panel recommends that in the longer term NSF should pursue the ultimate goal of a 50 percent public interest in GSMT capability, as articulated in the 2001 decadal survey (Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium)
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would greatly benefit ground-based OIR science in the coming decade and would provide critical support for some of the medium and large programs. The panel recommends the programs in the following, unprioritized list: • An adaptive optics technology development program (AODP)
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They have a plan and a design for a network of spacecraft that will measure long-wavelength gravitational waves where astrophysical sources are predicted to be the most abundant. They have developed high-precision techniques of pulsar observation that are a promising probe of the gravitational waves associated with inflation and with supermassive black holes.
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From page 97... ...
These instruments provide unique views of astronomical sources, exploring the extreme environments that give rise to particle acceleration near, for example, supermassive black holes and compact binary systems. The panel recommends continued involvement in high-energy particle astrophysics, with particular investment in new gamma-ray telescopes that will provide a much deeper and clearer view of the high-energy universe, as well as a better understanding of the astrophysical environment necessary to disentangle the dark matter signatures from natural backgrounds.
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From page 98... ...
Upgrades of modest cost to existing RMS facilities may allow the first discovery of gravitational waves and imaging of the event horizon around a black hole. The steps taken during this decade can lead to the next great advance in future decades, a telescope capable of studying the atomic gas flows that feed galaxies back in cosmic time and capable of studying the inner parts of circumstellar disks, where Earth-like planets may be forming.
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would significantly improve astronomers' ability to find and study transient sources and to detect gravitational waves by timing an array of pulsars. The ATA can test ideas needed for the development of next-generation telescopes such as the Square Kilometer Array (SKA)
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100 Space Studies Board Annual Report -- 2010 Looking to the Future The SKA has a remarkable discovery potential, including studies of the epoch of reionization (SKA-low) , determination of the gas content of galaxies at z of 1 to 2 (SKA-mid)
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The panel also investigated what impact such participation might have on the prospects for the timely realization of the WFIRST mission and other activities recommended by NWNH in view of the projected budgetary situation.4 The Panel on Implementing Recommendations from the New Worlds, New Horizons Decadal Survey convened its workshop on November 7, 2010, and heard presentations from NASA, ESA, OSTP, the Department of Energy, the National Science Foundation, and members of the domestic and foreign astronomy and astrophysics communities. Workshop presentations identified several tradeoffs among options: funding goals less likely versus more likely to be achieved in a time of restricted budgets; narrower versus broader scientific goals; and U.S.-only versus U.S.-ESA collaboration.
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The NWNH recommendations remain scientifically compelling, and this panel believes that the decadal survey process remains the most effective way to provide community consensus to the federal government to assist in its priority setting for U.S. astronomy and astrophysics.
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Further, the act finds it in the national interest to expand the size of NASA's suborbital research program and to consider it for increased funding. STATEMENT OF TASK The Space Studies Board established the ad hoc Committee on NASA's Suborbital Research Capabilities to assess the current state and potential of NASA's suborbital research programs and conduct a review of NASA's capabilities in this area.
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The suborbital program elements provide essential technical innovation and risk mitigations that benefit spaceflight missions through development and demonstration of technology and instruments that later fly on NASA spacecraft. The suborbital elements provide effective, hands-on, engineering and management experience that transfers readily to NASA spaceflight projects.
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