Capability Planning and Analysis to Optimize Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Investments (2012) / Chapter Skim
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1 Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Challenges Facing the Air Force
1 Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Challenges Facing the Air Force
Pages 9-23
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From page 9... ...
. .1 The evolving strategic landscape encompasses a vast list of uncertainties that include violent extremists, non-state actors, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, competition over dwindling natural resources, rapid growth in the availability and use of technology worldwide, growing global economic interdependency, and vulnerable and fragile commercial infrastructure.
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national security umbrella, the Air Force has a significant role in the acquisition, operation, and support of many ISR capabilities because it is simultaneously a user, a provider, and an operator in the Joint and coalition contexts. Air Force ISR capabilities deliver 2Although these threats need to be addressed by the Department of Defense, including all of the military services, the intelligence community, and the Department of Homeland Security, the focus of this research is directed particularly at Air Force intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
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From page 11... ...
that would be required to ensure that the Air Force corporate planning and programming process for ISR is successful in addressing all Joint, National, and Coalition partners' needs.a aAir Force ISR investments include the air, space, and cyberspace domains, which, in turn, provide critical inputs into the ground and maritime ISR domains. The Air Force sponsor requested that the committee focus specifically on the air, space, and cyberspace domains for this report.
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From page 12... ...
To acquire the right capabilities, for the right reasons, under current and potential future circumstances, is extremely challenging.5 Although the TOR for this study is specific to the Air Force, Air Force decisions about whether to enact the proposed ISR CP&A process will need to be made in the context of factors including but not limited to the following: (1) congressional support, (2)
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From page 13... ...
Code.6 An ideal ISR CP&A process for the Air Force would provide answers to these questions and reasonably sustain decisions made over time in the context of the broad challenges of the 21st century.7 SCENARIOS THAT MAY GUIDE AIR FORCE ISR FORCE-PLANNING PROCESSES Strategic requirements for the broad range of ISR capabilities are embedded within the 2012 National Defense Strategy.8 Along with this new guidance, the DoD will base major force-planning efforts on a prediction of future conflicts and the anticipated requirements of existing and "to be developed" weapons systems. Budgetary restraint will also add significant risk that must be calculated into Air Force ISR force planning.9 It is now assumed that the U.S.
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From page 14... ...
Repre sentative Air Force ISR missions will include the following: theater-wide persistent situational awareness; high-value, time-critical targeting; countering of improvised explosive device; and COIN support for brigade- or regiment-sized ground forces arrayed across a region. In regional conflicts featuring significant U.S.
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From page 15... ...
. Even with the reduction in military forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Air Force will continue to plan for multiple scenarios that will involve various mixes of ISR capabilities.13 There are many variations and permutations on predicting the immediate aspects of the national security environment,14 but at least four other regional concern categories currently draw significant attention: 13Thomas Barnett.
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argues that, "in Middle Eastern usage it comes from the `Beirut spring' in which hundreds of thousands of Lebanese demonstrated against the Syrian military presence and domination of the country. In the short term the Lebanese protesters won.
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military's legacy plan ning assumptions will remain valid."19 Accordingly, it is increasingly important for Air Force ISR force planners to look in detail at the A2/AD challenges as well as the exacting requirements for strategic and operational targeting. Pacific Rim In the Pacific Rim, Air Force planners may be considering multiple scenarios, ranging from no ongoing military conflict but in which some degree of military action can be foreseen in operations short of war, to operations that would presage conflict with the intended effect of deterring aggressive military action.
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From page 18... ...
and its allies should take steps to offset China's growing military power with the goal of retaining the stable military balance that has benefited all in the region, none more so than China.21 Which of these views prevails will still have significant Air Force ISR force planning implications, especially in the category of doing everything possible to prevent conflict and to prevent a Chinese strategic advantage in the region. Defense policy analyst Andrew Krepinevich has outlined some examples of Chinese aggres sive tendencies and provocations, such as the following: Chinese fighter jets intercepting and striking a U.S.
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Detecting precursors to a North Korean missile launch, and 3. Supporting immediate air strikes by both the Republic of Korea and the United States in the event of a North Korean incursion into the South.
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27Committee assumptions about Air Force ISR force planning: (1) The primary concern is to detect North Korean missiles being prepped and fueled, so that the United States is capable of intercepting them before launch.
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In structuring for hu manitarian assistance, AF ISR capabilities of broad scope would be required -- capa bilities ranging from assisting a foreign government with significant infrastructure resources to assisting a government with degraded infrastructure.30 Homeland Security-Based Scenarios There are numerous hypothetical scenarios involving current DoD military capabilities in support of national and state agencies within current federal law. In such scenarios, the DoD normally plays a supporting role rather than a primary 28Bruce Bennett and Jennifer Lind, Fall 2011, Journal of International Security, and referenced in "Doomsday War Games: Pentagon's 3 Nightmare Scenarios." Christian Science Monitor, December 2011.
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From page 22... ...
consequence management of a natural disaster or terrorist-initiated disaster at a significant threshold requiring a homeland federal response; and (3) presidentially directed activity, currently defined by existing law or new proposed legislation.32 In the homeland security-type scenarios, it will be most important for Air Force ISR force planners to look at adaptive ways to use military assets in a wide-ranging spectrum of activity, but in ways that would always recognize the legal restrictions inherent in the use of such assets.
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From page 23... ...
Chapter 3 covers Task 2 of the TOR by reviewing various analytical methods, processes, and models for large-scale, complex domains like ISR, and identifies best practices. Chapter 4 responds to Tasks 3 and 4 of the TOR by offer ing recommendations for Air Force consideration for the improvement of its ISR CP&A process and an ideal model of an Air Force "system-of-systems" evaluation process for ISR CP&A.
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