Weather Services for the Nation Becoming Second to None (2012) / Chapter Skim
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2 Prioritize Core Capabilities
2 Prioritize Core Capabilities
Pages 17-38
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From page 17... ...
Evaluate all aspects of its work that contribute and intensity forecast skill, quantitative precipitation to its foundational datasets, with the explicit goal of forecast skill, and hydrologic prediction forecast skill. ensuring that those foundational datasets are of the For numerical weather prediction, such metrics include highest quality and that improvements are driven the traditional comparison of model performance at by user needs and scientific advances.
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From page 18... ...
tiple segments, or elements, including space vehicle; In each of these areas, a well-organized program instruments; launch vehicle; command, control, and of technology infusion would provide a means for communications (C3) ; and data processing hardware the NWS to avoid becoming obsolete and requiring and software.
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From page 19... ...
was to facilitate risk reduction As an example, methods for determining impacts of for NPOESS in areas including sensors, algorithms, various measurements on numerical weather predic- and ground processing. NPP was not intended to be tion are described later in this chapter.
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From page 20... ...
Land-surface properties important low-level coverage is important for many severe-storm to numerical weather prediction, particularly soil moiswarning and precipitation-estimation applications as ture, lack the necessary spatial resolution (NRC, 2009)
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A models and products. thorough, integrated assessment of observational, data Performance in numerical weather prediction at assimilation, and data management needs for hydro- the National Centers for Environmental Prediction logic prediction activities would provide much-needed (NCEP)
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From page 22... ...
, European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting Bitmapped [ECM in figure legend] , UK Meteorological weather prediction skill (for example, the efforts of Office [UKM in figure legend]
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From page 23... ...
would allow for higher resolu- energy, health, and human security. tion to be achieved, as well as more sophisticated data The Committee notes that improving NWS's assimilation and physical parameterization approaches numerical weather prediction capabilities will require a to be used.
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From page 24... ...
In the last decade, adjoints for the modeling and data assimilation systems have been developed and Current and Future Observing Needs for applied at many centers around the world, including Numerical Weather Prediction Models NASA, the U.S. Navy, ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo France, and Environment Canada.
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From page 25... ...
. Although NWP satellite observing systems, the number of daily radio- models are thought to be especially sensitive to moisture sonde observations has decreased during the same observations, these observations are often more limited time period that the skill of global forecast models and very difficult to use.
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From page 26... ...
tion and observations systems, the National Weather Adaptive or targeted observations have been Service (NWS) should develop and advance softexplored for applications such as tropical cyclones ware tools to monitor the impact of observations (Harnisch and Weissmann, 2010; Weissmann et al., on numerical weather prediction and downstream 2010, 2012)
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From page 27... ...
The most straightforward variable to forecast The dominant approach to probabilistic forecasting probabilistically is temperature, for which probabilistic uses ensemble forecasts. Ensemble forecasts consist of forecasting methods include the rank histogram adjustmultiple runs of one or more numerical weather pre- ment method (Hamill and Colucci, 1997)
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From page 28... ...
or process its ensemble forecasts so as to obtain calibrated ensemble model output statistics (Thorarinsdottir and probabilistic forecasts -- these are now within reach. Gneiting, 2010)
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NWS been monitored since the late 1980s and show a hydrologic prediction services were partially addressed steady increase in forecast lead time and reasonable in the Committee's first report (Finding 4-7a) and are values of probability of detection of flooding events.
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From page 30... ...
implemented, such models would gradually replace the spatially lumped conceptual hydrologic models13 that Data Management have been used operationally for the past 20 to 30 years in NWS hydrologic prediction services. While there As outlined in Observing Weather and Climate from are numerous reasons for undertaking this modeling the Ground Up: A Nationwide Network of Networks, there transformation, many of which are described below, has been a proliferation of networks designed to acquire it is important that such model development efforts meteorological and hydrologic data for various applicabe informed and guided by clear model assessment tions (NRC, 2009)
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From page 31... ...
It is expected that this trend will continue with regard OPERATIONALLY RELATED RESEARCH to observations throughout the troposphere. In addition, the most recent decade has seen an Operationally related research aims to infuse NWS increase in the use of nontraditional data as proxies core capabilities with improved techniques from the for meteorological and hydrologic information.
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From page 32... ...
Established in 2008, the Hurricane Forecast Hurricane track forecast skill has steadily improved Improvement Program (HFIP) has aligned the inter- over the last 20 years, but the intensity forecasts have agency and scientific hurricane community at large, improved little if at all (NRC, 2012a)
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From page 33... ...
Severe Storm Prediction NRL/FNMOC Interactions The National Weather Center (NWC) in N orman, The Navy's meteorology and oceanography enterOklahoma, is a multi-agency facility built in 2006 prise differs in scope from the NWS (e.g., the Navy designed to bring government, academic, and private is focused on different applications and areas of
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From page 34... ...
One ments, regional numerical weather prediction, climate possible important reason for this success has been the system modeling, paleoclimate modeling, solar physics, collocation of the Navy's primary meteorology research aircraft measurements, and high-performance computentity (NRL-Monterey) with its operational partner ing applications.
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From page 35... ...
Alternatively, NWS hydro- underlying the core capabilities of the NWS continue logic prediction models are fairly parsimonious from to advance and require integration into the operaa parameter perspective, which affords convenience in tions and products of the NWS. New types and new terms of model calibration and the simplified structure amounts of data need to be assimilated; the radars and of NWS hydrologic prediction models translates into other observation technologies need to be upgraded significant computational efficiency.
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From page 36... ...
A possible drawback is Recommendation I.f that the EISWG subset of the NSAB cannot, because of its rather small membership, represent all of the areas or As an absolutely necessary condition for success, sectors in which advice and outside perspective would be although insufficient by itself, the National Weather of use to the NWS. The marginal cost of this option is Service (NWS)
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From page 37... ...
. of the key challenges facing the NWS is keeping pace The advisory body would also help the NWS establish with rapid changes in technology, user needs, and the clear metrics for evaluating improvement in forecasts overall enterprise context.
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