Himalayan Glaciers Climate Change, Water Resources, and Water Security (2012) / Chapter Skim
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4 Environmental Risk and Security
4 Environmental Risk and Security
Pages 73-92
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From page 73... ...
were raised about the possible linkages of mountain hydroclimate change to, and long-term implications NATURAL HAZARDS AND VULNERABILITY for, perennial and pervasive hazards in the region. Moreover, food insecurity in some areas is a chronic It is useful to situate the risks associated with snow hazard not associated with disasters as much as strucand ice hydroclimatology in the HKH region within tural political, social, and economic forces (e.g., Pakithe broader context of natural hazards patterns and stan National Nutrition Survey (AKU and UNICEF, trends in South Asia, which have varied in the region 2012)
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From page 74... ...
. However, the To what extent, and in what ways, do the unfolding number of people killed over the past century by natural mountain snow and ice risks in the HKH region relate disasters was dominated by droughts and related famto other natural hazards in the region?
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From page 75... ...
while earthinsight, although the patterns and trends seem less quakes have been associated with the highest number of FIGURE 4.2 Number of people affected per event (bars; y-axis, left) and in aggregate (black triangles; y-axis, right)
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From page 76... ...
Displacement of people in killed and displaced spiked several times over the past multiple countries appeared to start increasing in the FIGURE 4.4 People affected per event (bars, y-axis, left) and in aggregate (black triangles; y-axis, right)
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From page 77... ...
Thus, countries in the region, and thus the most pervasive while the above analysis brings forth information about exposure to and experience with mountain hazards. It the occurrence of natural hydroclimate hazards in the is also the one country in the region that has a detailed region, interpreting these data needs to be framed with national disaster database examining hazards by types additional points, including and subregions, maintained by the Global Assess · the number of people in risk zones has increased with population growth; 4 The last of these issues is partially addressed by data on losses · the number of people affected by floods may be per event.
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From page 78... ...
increased pared with other countries in South Asia; and in the same time period, albeit with differently timed · fires and floods have caused some of the greatest peaks and trends in response to specific events.7 How- economic losses. ever, estimated economic damages increased from the 1990s onward in an obvious trend (Figure 4.6)
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From page 79... ...
One important aspect of these regional programs is their increasing emphasis Natural Disaster Mitigation, Management, on linking climate change with disaster risk reducand Response tion. Another important observation is that increasing emphasis on community-based approaches and on It is important to consider the efforts that focus capacity building by these organizations is creating an on natural hazards and disaster risk reduction in international professional cadre of regional disaster risk South Asia, as they offer different perspectives on reduction expertise.
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From page 80... ...
In parliamentary federal systems of Nongovernmental organizations have supported government such as India and Pakistan, by comparison, and helped shape an array of local, community-based states may have primary or concurrent jurisdiction, with approaches to disaster risk reduction in South Asia support from national agencies to address disasters that (see Appendix D for further discussion)
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From page 81... ...
. However, Another open question is how large drought losses on they can also increase the numbers of people affected the plains may be affected by future temporal variability and the economic damages they face.
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. Returning to the natural hazards propositions This is not to dismiss scenario analysis, but rather outlined above, it is important to anticipate and explore to say that it must be complemented by other types alternative perspectives on compound physical and of risk assessment and risk reduction.
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From page 83... ...
medium confidence that socioeconomic recovery processes -- as well as their implications for factors will be the main drivers of future losses; (c) future disaster risk reduction policies and programs medium agreement that future climate extremes would at different scales -- is still under way.
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From page 84... ...
provide an array of examples in an edited WATER CONFLICT volume on Adaptive Capacity and Livelihood Resilience: Adaptive Strategies for Responding to Floods and Droughts Although water conflict per se has historically been in South Asia. Other studies of community-based plan- kept within bounds, the region is characterized by a ning methods for multihazard resilience in the HKH high level of risk for political security problems, commountains can serve as blueprints for future planning, pared with other parts of the world.
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From page 85... ...
Yet access to reliable There have been a range of promising multitrack water is vulnerable to disruptions from intentional initiatives that focus on transboundary water issues in human actions or from changes in natural conditions, South Asia (cf. the various perspectives of Aman Ki including climate changes.
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From page 86... ...
The Indus agreement, however, extensive irrigation systems, the Indus River Basin was already the subject of contested water management by Indian states does at least divide the river entirely by tributary, and when the new countries of India and Pakistan were created in 1947. the Ganges agreement has varying allocations dependIn April 1948, India cut off water to several major canals, However, ing on flow.
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From page 87... ...
Extensive research and policy discussions around · Create joint institutions to facilitate adaptation water security have also taken place within the counto climate change, including technical committees and tries of South Asia. In India, for example, analysts have shared models and data.
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From page 88... ...
. TABLE 4.1 Examples of Water Conflicts in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region Date Parties Involved Basis of Conflict Description 1970 Chinese citizens Development dispute Conflicts over excessive water withdrawals and subsequent water shortages from China's Zhang River have been worsening for over three decades between villages in Shenxian and Linzhou counties.
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From page 89... ...
Drought and inequality in water distribution lead to more than 50 violent clashes in the region in the month of May, and media reports more than a dozen people killed and even more injured since January, mostly fighting over a bucket of water. 2009 China and India Military tool, China claims a part of historical Tibet that is now under Indian control as part of the state development dispute of Arunachal Pradesh.
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From page 90... ...
In addition, the threat posed by continuor quality of water resources in parts of the region ing overdraft of groundwater resources may be even may play an increasing role in political tensions, either more important than consequent changes in glacial directly through disputes over access to water, or indi- melt and its contribution to the rivers of South Asia rectly through changes in agricultural production and (Darnault, 2008; Shah, 2009)
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From page 91... ...
. · Natural disasters in South Asia involve meteoroThe frequency with which breakdowns occur due to logical, hydrological, and geophysical phenomena that environmental stress have led some analysts to argue are not unique to the HKH region.
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From page 92... ...
Adaptation approaches need to be · Although the history of international river dis- flexible enough to change with changing conditions, for putes and agreements in this region suggests that coop- example, smaller-scale and lower-cost water manageeration is a more likely outcome than violent conflict, ment systems, because of uncertainty in impacts and social conditions may have changed in ways that make the dynamic nature of coming changes. There is a need historical patterns less informative about current and to think through adaptation protocols now rather than future challenges.
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