Himalayan Glaciers Climate Change, Water Resources, and Water Security (2012) / Chapter Skim
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5 Conclusion
5 Conclusion
Pages 93-102
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From page 93... ...
It is important to consider the and eastern Himalaya. impact of glacial retreat on regional water resources Melting of glacial ice plays an important role in in the larger, hydroclimatic and social context of the maintaining water security during times of drought or HKH region.
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From page 94... ...
to reduce and respond to this uncertainty there is a HKH, paleoclimate records indicate a trend toward need for improved monitoring of both the physical and wetter conditions in the 20th century and hydro- social systems; and (4) in the face of uncertainty, the logical models indicate that glacial melt is much more most compelling need is to improve water management important in the west (i.e., the Indus Basin)
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From page 95... ...
How will the monsoon change in the future? Anticipating future conditions in the HKH region · Glaciers: What is the relationship between cliis hindered by an incomplete understanding of current mate changes and the mass balance of the HKH glaconditions and of both the extent to which natural ciers?
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From page 96... ...
Improved datasets and monitoring would plains? How can the results of collaborative research help answer the following questions: on exemplars of disaster-resilient settlement, infra structure, and housing in mountain environments of · Demographics: How will populations change in the HKH region complement initiatives to increase areas with water scarcity as compared with areas with collaboration on climate change, glaciology, glacial lake sufficient water supplies?
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From page 97... ...
Even with significant international progress There is a large literature on the topic of adaptatoward mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, with tion, and the Committee can only briefly describe current levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse a few potential adaptation options in this section. gases in the atmosphere, there will be significant cli- Adaptation was discussed previously in the context of mate change over the next few decades, and thus some water management institutions and disaster agencies in adaptation, particularly to strengthen water manage- Chapters 3 and 4, respectively.
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From page 98... ...
falls or volatility in future supply could have negative Another adaptation option sometimes used in the consequences. face of water shortages is to construct a system for interbasin water transfers, moving water from a relaSupply-Side Strategies tively wet place to a relatively dry place.
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From page 99... ...
available for the system. Because available data indicate Usually, climate change adaptation is considered a the groundwater is currently being used unsustainably separate topic from climate change mitigation (i.e., the in the region, this adaptation option, by itself, is likely reduction in emissions of pollutants that cause climate not realistic; however major advances in conjunctive change)
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From page 100... ...
Efforts to effectively manage river basins attempt to More significant climate change impacts on hydrol- avoid this type of situation and the associated impacts ogy might necessitate changes in land use over time. such as a decrease in water quality or inequitable sharFor instance, farmers might adapt to climate change ing of the resource.
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From page 101... ...
Many of the international agreements in the region Once communities at risk from flooding are idenare not yet fully integrating climate change consider- tified, there are various options that can be used to ations into their decision making, and any progress on minimize risk, although many are very difficult to this front could serve as a climate change adaptation, implement. New development can be limited in floodby ensuring that basin water resources are managed plains or other sensitive areas, or existing homes and efficiently and equitably in a changing climate.
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From page 102... ...
Improvements in each of these areas in discussions of climate change impacts over 50-yearwould be adaptive to both glacial melt and hydrologi- plus time horizons may have to be replaced with cal change. ten-year-plus time horizons, and more comprehensive There is a growing sentiment within parts of the approaches to hydroclimatic forecasting, natural hazclimate science community that the social effects of cli- ards mitigation, and water management.
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