Aging and the Macroeconomy Long-Term Implications of an Older Population (2012) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
10 Research Recommendations
10 Research Recommendations
Pages 194-200
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 194... ...
This report confirms what other analyses have posited with regard to the nation's fiscal situation: The fiscal effects of population aging will be very large and will be mediated by how and how quickly our society responds. With regard to macroeconomic effects, the report concludes that while the overall macroeconomic effects of aging may be modest for the economy as a whole, the risks could be large for particular age groups and generations if the burden of adjustment is borne by public programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid or if the costs are borne largely by subgroups such as workers or retirees.
|
From page 195... ...
projections could be improved by explicitly taking into account trends in mortality related to smoking, obesity, and other behavioral factors, (2) projections could be improved by taking into account mortality differences by race/ethnicity and educational level (these are particularly important in light of current discussions about increasing the early and full retirement ages, which would have a larger proportional effect on expected years of retired life for groups with lower life expectancy and education)
|
From page 196... ...
The fiscal discussion in this report surveyed work to date on the effects of demographic change on state and local government budgets, but much remains to be done. In particular, future research should focus on the impact of demographic change on state and local expenditures for education and health services and on state and local tax revenues, as well as on accurate measurements of the future liabilities for pensions and health benefits for state and local workers (considerable work has been done on the pension side but not on retiree health benefits)
|
From page 197... ...
and (4) How might changing labor force patterns among women contribute to the overall labor force participation rate?
|
From page 198... ...
A wide empirical literature exists on how the retirement decision is affected by the eligibility age for public pensions, but much less is known about saving behavior and retirement age, or saving behavior and Medicare generosity. Of particular interest, given the likelihood that it will occur, would be the effect on private saving decisions of increased means-testing of benefits.
|
From page 199... ...
But the extent to which various subgroups in the population can and will save more and work longer, as the life cycle lengthens, requires additional research. MODELING AND DATA 4a.Promote modeling efforts to simulate how demographic aging may interact with changing patterns of health status, labor force participation, saving behavior, and capital market movements.
|
From page 200... ...
Data of this sort often can be constructed from existing administrative and survey sources such that no new data collection efforts are needed.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.