Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 13-22
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From page 13... ...
Similar to ACRP Report 3 model development procedures, backward stepwise logistic regression was used to calibrate five frequency models, one for each type of incident: LDOR, LDUS, LDVO, TOVO, and TOOR. Various numerical techniques were evaluated to conduct the multivariate analysis, and logistic regression was the preferred statistical procedure for a number of reasons.
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Moreover, the distances were adjusted for the runway surface condition (wet, snow, slush, or ice) and for the level of head/tailwind.
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knot HWTOJ = 0 knot FTWJ = (RD + 6 x HWTOT) /RD Runway Surface Condition – Wet (W)
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Small Acft F Small aircraft of MTOW 12.5k or less (small, Beech-90, Cessna Caravan, etc.) User Class Ref: C = Commercial User Class F Cargo User Class T/C Taxi/Commuter User Class G General Aviation Foreign OD Foreign origin/destination (yes/no)
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A typical longitudinal location distribution is presented in Figure 20. P Location x e axn>{ } = − For the transverse distribution, the same model structure was selected.
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18 x y Figure 18. X-Y origin for aircraft undershoots.
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19 Prob=exp((-.00321)
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20 Prob=exp((-.01481)
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) R2=99.5% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Distance Y from Runway Edge (ft)
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) R2=94.2% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Distance Y from Runway Edge (ft)
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