Improved Models for Risk Assessment of Runway Safety Areas (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 32-36
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From page 32... ...
One notable exception was the case for TOORs. It is true that the number of cases is quite small for a sample of eight airports; however it is notable that there were fewer TOOR incidents compared to accidents.
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From page 33... ...
Date Country City/State Source Event Type Event Class AircraftICAO Code Airport Code 07/01/1981 US Saint Louis, MO NTSB LDVO Incident DC6 STL 07/24/1981 US Charleston NTSB LDUS Accident BE60 CRW 10/15/1981 US Saint Louis, MO AIDS LDVO Incident DC6 STL 2/24/1983 US Anchorage, AK AIDS LDVO Incident LJ24 ANC 10/26/1983 US Saint Louis, MO NTSB LDUS Accident CV3 STL 12/23/1983 US Anchorage, AK NTSB TOOR Accident DC10 ANC 9/28/1987 US Saint Louis, MO AIDS LDUS Incident MD80 STL 12/26/1987 US Fort Lauderdale, FL AIDS LDVO Incident AC11 FXE 10/14/1988 US Anchorage, AK AIDS LDVO Incident YS11 ANC 10/23/1989 US Anchorage, AK MITRE LDOR Incident B741 ANC 1/6/1990 US Miami, FL 4-01NTSB TOOR Accident L29A MIA 02/17/1991 US Spokane, WA NTSB LDVO Accident MU2B GEG 03/11/1993 US Saint Louis, MO NTSB LDVO Accident DC93 STL 8/28/1993 US Fort Lauderdale, FL AIDS LDVO Incident LJ23 FXE 08/29/1993 US Charleston NTSB LDOR Accident MU2B CRW 7/27/1994 US Sioux Falls, SD AIDS LDVO Incident T18 FSD 11/29/1994 US Spokane, WA AIDS TOVO Incident B731 GEG 06/23/1995 US Miami, FL NTSB LDVO Accident C402 MIA 11/19/1995 US Anchorage, AK AIDS LDUS Incident C441 ANC 12/19/1995 US Saint Louis, MO AIDS LDVO Incident DC91 STL 9/17/1996 US Miami, FL AIDS TOVO Incident BE18 MIA 11/15/1996 US Sioux Falls, SD MITRE LDOR Incident DC91 FSD 8/7/1997 US Miami, FL 4-01NTSB TOOR Accident DC85 MIA 2/19/1999 US Miami, FL 4-01ASRS LDUS Incident A30B MIA 10/15/2000 US Anchorage, AK NTSB TOOR Incident B741 ANC 10/16/2000 US Saint Louis, MO AIDS LDVO Incident MD80 STL 10/20/2000 US Saint Louis, MO ASRS LDOR Incident MD82 STL 04/07/2001 US Anchorage, AK AIDS TOVO Incident B190 ANC 01/01/2002 US Miami, FL 4-01NTSB LDOR Incident MD83 MIA 06/15/2002 US Fort Lauderdale, FL AIDS LDVO Incident SW3 FXE 12/01/2002 US Spokane, WA AIDS LDOR Incident DH8A GEG 12/20/2002 US Spokane, WA 4-01ASRS LDOR Incident DH8A GEG 8/16/1999 US Fort Lauderdale, FL MITRE LDVO Accident CL60 FXE 4/17/2003 US Fort Lauderdale, FL AIDS LDVO Incident SBR1 FXE 6/12/2003 US Fort Lauderdale, FL AIDS TOOR Incident LJ24 FXE 8/9/2003 US Fort Lauderdale, FL AIDS LDVO Incident SBR1 FXE 2/20/2004 US Fort Lauderdale, FL 4-01NTSB LDOR Accident LJ25 FXE 3/31/2004 US Fort Lauderdale, FL NTSB LDVO Accident C402 FXE 7/19/2004 US Fort Lauderdale, FL 4-01NTSB LDOR Accident LJ55 FXE 09/08/2004 US Charleston NTSB TOOR Accident C402 CRW 12/1/2005 US Sioux Falls, SD AIDS LDVO Incident SW4 FSD 6/6/2006 US Fort Lauderdale, FL AIDS TOVO Incident SW3 FXE 2/4/2007 US Miami, FL NTSB LDVO Incident DC87 MIA 11/1/2007 US Fort Lauderdale, FL AIDS LDOR Incident GLF2 FXE 1/27/2008 US Spokane, WA AIDS LDOR Incident B731 GEG 5/23/2008 US Fort Lauderdale, FL AIDS LDVO Incident SBR1 FXE 01/19/2010 US Charleston NTSB TOOR Accident CRJ2 CRW Table 8. Accidents and incidents at selected airports.
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From page 34... ...
The results concur that the sample of airports is representative of conditions for the population of airports in the United States. The largest difference was found for landing veer-offs; however, the incident rate, particularly for Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport, was unusually high during the analysis period.
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From page 35... ...
Validation of Risk Model The second part of the validation effort consisted of the comparison of actual risk rates with those estimated for the sample of eight airports. The estimated risk is associated with the likelihood of an accident, rather than an incident.
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From page 36... ...
Again, the results are in excellent agreement with the exception of the ratio for TOVO since none of the airports included in the sample had this type of incident. This can be attributed to chance, since the estimate is in good agreement with the historical level in the United States.
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