Guidelines for Analysis of Investments in Bicycle Facilities (2006) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 21-27
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From page 21... ...
This method has been incorporated into the guidelines. The literature review is described as follows: first is the literature on measuring demand, including some original contributions; second is the literature on modeling demand, that is, relating demand to bicycle facilities (the team makes original contributions by developing a demand model for the Twin Cities area)
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From page 22... ...
However, within the short to medium time frames that most bicycling forecasts are concerned with, it is more accurate to base predictions on known facts rather than on theoretical and possibly unproven relationships. Section 2.21 describes the results of several surveys and other measurements of general bicycling demand that have been done during the last decade.
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From page 23... ...
Source and Area Measure Average Range Travel Behavior Inventory, Twin Cities MSA National Household Travel Survey, U.S. Total (45)
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From page 24... ...
The hypothesis is that subjects living in closer proximity to a bike facility will be more likely to travel by bike compared with those who live more than 1 mi from the nearest bike facility. The outcome of interest (any bicycle use in the preceding 24 hours)
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From page 25... ...
Using a series of logistic regression models, it was found that subjects living within 400 m of an on-road bike facility had significantly increased odds of bike use compared with subjects living more than 1,600 m from an on-road bike facility. As expected, those that lived within 400 to 799 m of an on-road bike facility also had significantly increased odds of bike use compared with subjects living more than 1,600 m from an on-road bike facility, although the odds of bike use were slightly lower than for those living closest to an on-road facility.
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From page 26... ...
Indeed, the other main "result" of the Twin Cities model was that on-street bike lanes were very strongly and positively associated with increased riding. By contrast, lanes in some newer cities in California do 26 not seem to have high riding levels (55)
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From page 27... ...
The demand model outlined should be accessible to decision-makers and provide a known range of outcomes.iii Description of Process The process for estimating the increase in demand due to a facility is based on two steps derived from the team's research described in this chapter and in the Appendix A and B The first step uses the bicycling commute share in the area around the proposed facility to generate low, medium, and high estimates of the total number of current adult bicyclists in the area (i.e., the average number on a given day)
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