Technology and Environment (1989) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 23-94
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From page 23... ...
The industrial system of today resembles the earliest stage of biological evolution, when the most primitive living organisms obtained their energy from a stock of organic molecules accumulated during prebiotic times. It is increasingly urgent for us to learn from the biosphere and modify our industrial metabolism, the energy- and value-yielding process essential to economic development.
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From page 24... ...
, which induced a reaction producing the desirable sodium carbonate and a new waste product, calcium sulfide (Multhauf, 1967~. Meanwhile, the market for ammonium chloride failed, so sodium sulfate had to be produced in the same complex by reacting sulfuric acid with common salt.
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From page 25... ...
be used for energy recovery. It is difficult to estimate the fraction of the total mass of processed
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From page 26... ...
. The annual accumulation of active materials embodied in durables, after some allowance for discard and demolition, is probably not more than 150 million tons, or 6 percent of the total.
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From page 27... ...
significantly underpriced in the past. For this reason, such resources have generally been overused.2 As noted, the total mass of waste residuals produced each year by industrial metabolism far exceeds the mass of active inputs derived from economic activities.
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From page 28... ...
Lead-acid batteries are recycled. Includes solders, contacts, semiconductors, and other special materials (but not copper wire)
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From page 29... ...
It is less well known that carbon monoxide plays an active, and not necessarily benign, role in a number of atmospheric chemical reactions before it is ultimately oxidized to carbon diomde. Inefficient combustion processes convert up to 10 percent
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From page 30... ...
, with a carbon content of 47 million tons. Emission controls reduced the net output of carbon monoxide in 1980 to about 85 million tons (U.S.
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From page 31... ...
In effect, at high temperatures, some of the atmospheric nitrogen is literally "burned." Nitrogen oxides are implicated in many atmospheric chemical reactions (including those that create smog) and eventually oxidize to nitric acid, which contributes to acid rain.
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From page 32... ...
Clearly, a powerful long-term strategy for improving overall effectiveness in production is the development of new processes to shorten these process chains, bypassing as many intermediates as possible. In other words, one would like to be able to produce final products such as polyethylene or synthetic rubber directly from first-tier intermediates or even from primary feedstocks such as ethane and propane.6 Biological organisms differ from industrial organizations in that they are able to build complex molecules directly from elementary building blocks with relatively few intermediates.
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From page 33... ...
The chemical waste dump used by Hooker Chemical Company at Love Canal, near Niagara Palls, is one example. Meanwhile, suitable sites for disposal of hazardous solid or liquid wastes are becoming scarce.7 Materials that are recovered and reused internally or embodied in marketable products that can be readily and effectively recycled are less likely to cause this kind of problem.8 The incentives for technological innovation in the area of waste reduction and disposal are not always operating, especially where there are massive market failures.
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From page 34... ...
1b relate this general point to the present context, one might postulate a long-run evolutionary imperative favoring industrial metabolic technologies that result in reduced extraction of virgin materials, reduced loss of waste materials, and increased recycling of useful materials. For convenience, one might refer to this overall trend if it exists as an imperative to reduce materials intensiveness, or dematerialization (see Herman et al., this volume)
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From page 35... ...
1b take one example, a future industrial metabolism deriving its energy ultimately from nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, or the sun itself, rather than from fossil fuels, would necessitate a completely different chemical energy carrier system. The most likely bulk energy carrier appears to be hydrogen.
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From page 36... ...
In the long run, it appears likely that all of them will have to be replaced or used only in applications permitting an extremely high degree of recycling. It is probably safe to say that the industrial metabolism of the next century will recycle many of the waste products that are produced in the largest quantities today, notably sulfur, fly ash, and lignin wastes from the paper industry.
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From page 37... ...
Assuming the production and use statistics for hydrofluoric acid were correct, one would have to believe that the indirect estimate based on materials-balance considerations was probably more reliable than the estimate based on partial and questionable direct measurements. Another application of materials-balance methodology is in the reconstruction of historical emissions data.
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From page 38... ...
38 A) loying Metallurgical \ \ \/ ~ ~ /~ ¢)
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From page 39... ...
It is also clear that where the production and use of by-products are concerned, many industrial processes involve multiple steps, resulting in a low level of system efficiency, especially in comparison with biological systems. The sum of the argument here suggests that we should not only postulate, but indeed endorse, a long-run imperative favoring an industrial metabolism that results in reduced extraction of virgin materials, reduced loss of waste materials, and increased recycling of useful ones.
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From page 40... ...
40 Hydroxide H2SO4 | Hydroxide .
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From page 41... ...
. They obtained the energy needed to sustain the reproduction cycle from the anaerobic fermentation of organic molecules previously created by natural geophysical processes in an atmosphere containing no free oxygen.
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42 cn o cS 1 .
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In this sense, the industnal system of today resembles the earliest stage of biological evolution, when the most primitive living organisms obtained their energy from a
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From page 44... ...
The so-called carbothermic reduction process by which iron ore is converted to pig iron is a typical example of the third category. In this reaction, coke is partially oxidized to carbon monoxide, which in turn reacts with the ore-at appropriate temperatures to reduce the iron oxides, while converting the carbon monoxide to carbon dioxide.~9 The temperature determines which way the reaction goes.
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From page 45... ...
. mew Materia:3 Physical Separation and Refining | (Beneficiation, Smelting, etc.)
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From page 46... ...
Here the distinction between renewable and nonrenewable resources is critical: although renewable resources can obviously create pollution problems, such as sewage, they are almost invariably localized in nature and can be abated at moderate cost. This is emphatically not the case for combustion products of fossil fuels or dispersion of toxic heavy metals.
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From page 47... ...
These metals could probably be recovered commercially if, for example, bauxite became unavailable (Ayres, 19823. Alternatively, fly ash could be used as a substitute, or more likely as a supplement, for Portland cement in the manufacture of concrete and concretelike products.
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From page 48... ...
When this reacts with sodium chloride, sodium carbonate and ammonium chloride are produced. Finally, calcium hydroxide and ammonium chloride are reacted to recover ammonia (gas)
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From page 49... ...
in air to yield a mixture of nitrogen, steam, and carbon monoxide. The steam in the hot combustion products could then be reacted with additional natural gas to generate hydrogen and more carbon monoxide to be used as feedstock for the shift reaction.
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From page 50... ...
Dematerialization ROBERT HERMAN, SIAMAK ~ ARE, JESSE H AUSUBEL Until recently the role of consumption as a driving force for environmental change has not been widely explored.
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From page 51... ...
From an environmental viewpoint, therefore, (deymaterialization should perhaps be defined as the change in the amount of waste generated per unit of industrial products. On the basis of such a definition, and taking into account overall production and consumption, we have attempted to examine the question of whether dematerialization is occurring.
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From page 52... ...
Although dematerialization may be the case on a per-unit basis, the increasing number of units produced can cause an overall trend toward materialization with time. As an example, the apparent consumption of shoes, which seem increasingly difficult to repair, has risen markedly in the United States since the 1970s, with about 1.1 billion pairs of nonrubber shoes purchased In 1985, compared with 730 million pairs as recently as 1981 (Table 1~.
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From page 53... ...
For example, the ease of manufacture of a particular product in smaller and lighter units may result in lower production cost and cheaper products of lower quality, which will be replaced rather than repaired on breaking down. Although a smaller amount of waste will be generated on a per-unit basis, more units will be produced and disposed of, and there may be an overall increase in waste generation at both the production and the consumption ends.
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From page 54... ...
Bureau of the Census (197~1985~. NOITE: Lines connecting data points are for clarity only.
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From page 55... ...
NOTE: Lines connecting data points are for clank only. The societal driving forces behind dematerialization are, at best, diverse and contradictory.
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From page 56... ...
stone, and from sand and gravel for concrete. These materials may be less important for environmental quality than others that are more active in our "industrial metabolism" (see Ayres?
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From page 57... ...
Often, increasing energy efficiency involves substituting durable capital goods in the form of better or larger amounts of building materials such as insulation. However, further evidence of dematerialization at the production end is provided by data on industrial solid waste generation, which show a significant decline from 1979 to 1982 (Figure 4~.
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From page 58... ...
58 a> s o o ._ Go on 4)
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From page 59... ...
33-37~. TABLE 4 Energy Intensity of Selected National Economies, 197~1985 Energy (megajoules)
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From page 61... ...
61 new newspapers. Wastepaper consumption in the newspaper industry rose from about Z6 million short tons in 1977 to 3.6 million short tons in 1987 (Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, 1988, p.
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From page 62... ...
ARDEKANI, ID JESSE H AUSUBEL in the year 1982-1983, and the Princeton University computer center used close to 6 million pages of letter-sized laser paper in 1986, plus about 4,500 cartons of impact printout paper.
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From page 63... ...
, only 24 percent of the 47 million short tons of recyclable paper in U.S. solid waste was recovered in the early 1970s.
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From page 64... ...
Material 1977 1982 1987 Percentage of Total Consumption in Recycled Scrap 1977 1982 1987 Aluminum6.49 5.94 6.90 24.1 33.3 29.6 Copper2.95 2.64 3.15 39.2 48.0 39.9 Lead158 1.22 1.27 44.4 47.0 54.6 Nickel0.7S 0.89 1.42 55.9 4S.4 45.4 Steel/iron142.40 84.00 9950 29.4 33.4 465 Zinc1.10 0.78 1.05 20.9 24.1 17.7 Paper60.00 61.00 76.20 24.3 245 25.8 SOURCE: Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries (1988~. economic standpoint, high-grade resources are exploited before lower grade resources and recycling are considered economically viable.
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From page 65... ...
According to a 1987 international treaty the industrial countries agreed to cut CFC production in half by the year 2000. In March 1989 there was a conference in London, attended by over 100 nations, at which a proposal for the total elimination of CFCs by the year 2000 was entertained.
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From page 66... ...
The risks considered included cancer risk noncancer health risks, ecological effects, and welfare ejects such as materials damage to industrial, agricultural, commercial, and residential properties, among others. Lead and CFCs along with, for example, sulfur dioxide, suspended Articulates, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides were included in three air pollutant categories regarded as having relatively high risks.
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From page 67... ...
In general, a more thorough examination of practices in the construction industry regarding waste generation and processing is warranted in studies of dematerialization. How much waste is generated in construction activities such as paving roads and building houses?
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From page 68... ...
tons of oil or 19 U.S. tons of coal, and in telecommunications 1 ton of copper wire can now be replaced by a mere 25 or so kilograms of fiberglass cable, which can be produced with only 5 percent of the energy needed to produce the copper wire it replaces.
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From page 69... ...
Detroit, Mich.: Wards Communications. Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association.
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From page 70... ...
Regularities in Technological Development: An Environmental View JESSE H AUSUBEL Forward, forward let us range; Let the great world spin forever down the ringing grooves of change.
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From page 71... ...
luedmo~ penally u~a~uON uOl~u! llna nor sue pus 'sosaoq 'salvos 1oqel angel 'poor Jo somnlo~ oSml ~ulsn ~ Ins Alan Xep cod sollm 8 Jo SplOOO~ laurel ~DEJ1 JO dn-=olD :htal7q 'WOW eueluo~ lseA All shoe L~1 U!
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From page 72... ...
72 JESSE H AUSUBEL wood, cars were wood, some of the rails were wood, trestles were wood and most important, crossties were wood.
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From page 75... ...
REGULARTrlES 12V 1:E:CHNOL~OGICAL DEVELOPMENT 1o1 10° 10-' 10-2 / I 1870 ., r fit - 54 yr f 1900 1930 1950 Year 75 FIGURE 4 Growth of the length of wire for the U.S. telegraph system.
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From page 76... ...
, shows that, from an environmental point of view, cars were a marvelous technological innovation, at least when they were not much more numerous than horses. Figure 6, showing the substitution of cars for horses, emphasizes the continuity of the demand for personal transportation service and the fact that technologies or modes compete to meet such demand.
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From page 77... ...
REGULARITIES IN TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT fog 101 - O _ 1o-l ~ -2 ~/ 1 1 1 900 / 1910 Ho: At/ Year 1 920 77 / 0.99 0.90 Cal c to 0.70 <5 0.50 LL _ 0.10 0.01 1 930 FIGURE 6 Replacement of homes by automobiles in the United States. Irregular lines are historical data; smooth lines are best fit and extrapolation.
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From page 78... ...
78 JESSE H AUSUBEL 2 _ ~ 0.99 Emission Catalyst / 1o1 10° 10- ~ _ 1 o-2 ,, 1 1 1 1 L/ 1 1 - ~1 1 1 1960 1 970 -1 No Con 0.90 0.50 _ IL _ _ 0.10 0.01 1 990 1 980 Year FIGURE 7 Substitution of emission controls in the U.S.
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From page 79... ...
, which chronicles London air pollution since the Middle Ages and describes how improvements in technologies for burning wood and coal and for ventilation helped population density to increase and morbidity to decline. In energy, as in transport, what is most striking is the overall consistency and stability of the evolution of the technologies favored, as illustrated in Figure 9, which shows consumption of hydrocarbon fuels wood, coal, oil,
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From page 80... ...
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From page 81... ...
SOURCE: Grubler and Nakicenovic (1988~. society has been moving steadily toward an economy running on natural gas and eventually on hydrogen.
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From page 82... ...
~ accommodate a further increase in per capita energy consumption, a society must shift each time to a form of primary energy that is not only economically sound, but also cleaner and in some ways more efficient, especially in terms of transport and storage. At a high hierarchical level, the pycle-adjusted view suggests that there are periods when the main orientation of the system is not so much growth as consolidation, with strong emphasis on squeezing more efficiency out of the system (a collection of technologies)
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From page 83... ...
If strong demand for energy growth does not resume for another 7-10 years, as implied by the long-wave perspective, then improved energy efficiency looks like the most important near-term energy strategy, along with preparing the way for natural gas to accommodate another growth pulse (see Lee. this volume)
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From page 84... ...
Fluorescent li a' /~ HT Steam ~Turbine Cornish Tungsten ~` / filament / / ,~~ ~ Prime Movers Cellulose ~ /. t 1 - 50% = 300 yr Filament:/ Edison's ,7 First Lamp/ /: Paraffin / ~ t 1 - 50% = 80 yr Candle / Mercury Sodium// / Lamp Lamp Lamp / /~ Ammonia Production | At 1 - 50% = 70 yr Lamps Year 50 to ce 1 .0 0.1 FIGURE 13 Examples of increasing energy efficiency.
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From page 85... ...
REGULARITIES TV TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT 40C 30 20 10 0~ 1950 1960 800 600 Year Steel Aluminum Projected ,, I i 1970 1 980 Projected' ~~M o 1955 19601970 1980 Year 10 Zinc Projected Hi' 1960 1970 1980 Year 85 0.8 10 8 6 4 2 o 1950 1 960 .2 Copper Projected '' Actual 1970 1 980 Year Nickel Projected '' 0.0 _ 1950 1960 1970 1980 Year FIGURE 14 Actual materials consumption for five metals, 195~1985, and projections made in 1970 for 197~1985. SOURCE: Tilton (1987~.
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From page 86... ...
The latter figure is an obvious and essential part of the explanation for the recent widely reported concerns about the deterioration of environmental quality at beaches in the United States and Europe (see Lynn, this volume)
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From page 87... ...
(9861) ll~eqellloS pue day Chinos spunod Jo suo!
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From page 88... ...
From numerous illustrations available in transport, energy, and materials it is evident that there is need to increase scrutiny of environmental problems and opportunities associated with growth of air transport; increasing reliance on natural gas; and disposal of plastics. Clear possibilities exist for the development of illuminating indicators, such as trends in the hydrogen-to carbon ratio and the composition of demandite, connected to technologies and resources that would be valuable in our diagnoses
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From page 89... ...
The term CH refers to the combination of coal, oil, and natural gas, which are all made up of carbon and hydrogen in different ratios. The subscript refers to the average hydrogen-to carbon ratio.
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From page 90... ...
1988. Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy.
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From page 91... ...
1971. The Depletion Myth: A History of Railroad Use of Timber.
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From page 93... ...
The Promise of Technological Solutions
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