Food Aid Projections for the Decade of the 1990s (1988) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix A: Medium Term Estimates of Demand-Based Food Aid Requirements and Their Variability
Appendix A: Medium Term Estimates of Demand-Based Food Aid Requirements and Their Variability
Pages 47-90
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From page 47... ...
In part I, the report summarizes the basic methodology adopted in the study and also presents the changes in scope and methodology that have been made in the present study. In part 2, the report presents the new estimates of program food aid requirements for future years, extending to the year 2000, that have been obtained for all the developing countries covered as well as separately for low-income developing countries.
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From page 48... ...
The volume of food that a country should be expected to import commercially in relation to its food import gap is therefore a policy variable and should not be determined merely from the past behavior of such imports. ESTIMATION OF FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS In this study, food aid requirements are defined as that part of the food import requirements of developing countries determined at a reasonable price level that are not filled by commercial food imports.
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From page 49... ...
The seed use of staples is estimated by applying the proportion of seed use to production prevailing in a base period to the production estimates of the various staples in different future years. The other uses of staples, consisting of industrial uses and wastes, are estimated by applying the proportion that such uses formed to the sum of food and feed use in the base period to the estimated sum of food and feed use in different future years.
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From page 50... ...
Given the import gap estimate, the estimate of food aid requirements depends on the assumptions made regarding commercial cereal imports. However, the estimate of food aid requirements ultimately depends as much on the food gap itself and therefore also on the first two terms of the equation.
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From page 51... ...
Since demand based food aid requirements are estimated by deducting commercial food imports from the food import gap, it becomes necessary to generate an estimate of commercial imports. However, without a clear conception of the policy-related nature of demand-based food aid requirements, and, therefore, without any statement of the policy objectives underlying the provision of food aid for sale in the market, earlier studies were not able to provide a rationale for determining the extent to which commercial imports of food should fill the food import gap in order to determine the residual requirement for food aid.
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From page 52... ...
An initial or high estimate was obtained by keeping net commercial cereal imports, that is both gross imports and exports, constant at the base period level. A second or low estimate was obtained by raising gross commercial imports at the rate of growth of aggregate GNP, while exports were assumed to grow at the rate of growth of domestic food production.
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From page 53... ...
2 Trend Estimates HIGH AND LOW ESTIMATES As in the earlier study, an initial estimate of food aid requirements was made for 85 developing countries on the assumption that net commercial imports are held constant at the average level of the base period. The base period for this purpose was taken at 1979-83, 53
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From page 54... ...
The results show the estimated program food aid requirements of 85 developing countries rising from 31 million tons in 1990 to over 42 million tons in 1995 and almost 54 million tons in the year 2000 (Table 2.23. THE BASIC ESTIMATE The rate of growth of aggregate GNP, used in the second method to raise gross commercial cereal imports from their base level, is the sum of the rates of growth of population and per capita GNP.
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From page 55... ...
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From page 56... ...
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From page 57... ...
For the 85 developing countries covered in the study, estimated food aid requirements of 37.42 million tons in 1990, 54.96 million tons in 1995 and 73.78 million tons in 2000 compare with gross commercial imports of 41.77 million tons, 48.92 million tons and 57.73 million tons in those years. This shows that though the gross commercial imports of these developing countries increase over the decade by almost 16 million tons, food aid increases much more rapidly by over 36 million tons.
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From page 59... ...
For this purpose, developing countries were grouped into five income classes according to their per capita GNP level in 1980: 1. Less than $250, 2.
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From page 60... ...
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From page 70... ...
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From page 71... ...
In any case, it is only when the estimated food aid requirements of these countries are added back to their estimated commercial imports that the sum of their food aid requirements and gross commercial imports will add up to their total food import gap. The estimated food aid requirements of low income developing countries of 19.19 million tons in 1990, 28.58 million tons in 1995 and 39.43 million tons in 2000 can then be compared with total gross commercial imports of all developing countries of 60.00 million tons in 1990, 75.30 million tons in 1995 and 92.09 million tons in 2000 (Table 2.83.
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From page 72... ...
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From page 73... ...
Unner and Tower limits for food aid requirements around the basic estimates are then , . ~ obtained by deducting estimated commercial cereal Imports and the lower and upper estimates of production from the estimated consumption and then adding back the lower and higher estimates of cereal exports.
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From page 75... ...
The variability of food aid requirements for the world and for regional and sub-regional groups of countries when no income constraint is imposed on recipients of food aid is presented in Table 3.3. This shows that food aid requirement for all developing countries varies in 1990 between 42.29 million tons and 33.57 million tons around the trend estimate of 37.42.
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From page 76... ...
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From page 84... ...
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From page 85... ...
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From page 86... ...
This table shows that total food aid requirement for all low-income countries varies in 1990 from 23.3 million tons to 16.32 million tons around the trend requirement of 19.2 million tons. The positive percentage difference is 16.14~o and the negative percentage difference is 15~o.
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From page 89... ...
Basic Estimates Row 3: Lower Estimate. based on (Production + 1 S.D.
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From page 90... ...
LU no, {15 ~ .O ,~ ~ .O _ _ E ~: .O C) _ _ a, _ C ~ ._ Q ~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i I I I I I I 1990 90 95 90 95 90 95 90 95 90 95 90 95 90 95 90 95 90 95 90 95 90 95 90 95 90 95 1995 EACH REGION: 1990-1995 FIGURE 3.1 Percentage Difference of Upper and Lower Estimates of Food Aid Requirements from Basic Trend Estimates for Regions and Sub-regions 90
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