Challenges for the 1990s for Arms Control and International Security (1989) / Chapter Skim
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5. Whither Conventional Arms Control?
5. Whither Conventional Arms Control?
Pages 47-56
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From page 47... ...
NEW INITIATIVES IN CONVENTIONAL ARMS CONTROL A number of seminal changes have converged to make possible a new political and military relation between East and West. One is the increasing realization of how much it costs to maintain the present military confrontation in a time when so many other needs cry for attention.
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From page 48... ...
A number of Gorbachev's proposals in arms control have set the stage for serious negotiation: the most crucial have been the enlargement of the realm for negotiations from central Europe to the AtIantic-to-the-Urals region, asymmetric reductions to reach parity and advocating very deep cuts, and a restructuring of armed forces to defensive postures. In the realm of action the unilateral cuts in Soviet military forces proposed last December are already under way and wild substantially reduce the surprise attack capability of the Warsaw Pact.
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From page 49... ...
Planning began in November 1986 for two sets of conventional arms control negotiations to start not later than January 1989 in Vienna. These sessions were part of a larger forum based on the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, whereby Tree areas are considered together: secunty, economic cooperation, and human rights.
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From page 50... ...
Moreover, Eastern European governments have subsequently announced plans for reducing their aImed forces by 46,000 men and 1,700 tanks. These moves constitute the most impressive unilateral step taken since the end of World War II.
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From page 51... ...
OPENING POSITIONS By mid-January 1989 all disputes—now mostly intraalliance disagreement had been resolved. Agreements reached in Vienna covered not only the mandates for the CFE and CSBM conventional arms negotiations but also important agreements on human rights, terrorism, scientific cooperation, trade, travel, and freedom of information—an important advance over the original Helsinki Final Act of 1975.
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From page 52... ...
Moreover, there seems to be wide agreement on the need for intensive verification measures and the establishment of a common data base in order to determine what cuts have to be made. The NATO proposal puts a cap on tanks, artillery, and armored troop carriers at 90 to 95 percent of present NATO levels for both sides.
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From page 53... ...
OBSTACLES AND HOPE Deep reductions will force a profound recasting of not only military doctrine and force structure but also of traditional public and governmental attitudes as well. This, in turn, will create an opportunity to move toward convincing defensive postures that would greatly reduce the threat in Central Europe.
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From page 54... ...
Epstein of the Brookings Institution has just developed his own dynamic mode! to the point where it can compare the relative advantage to each side of the current arms control proposals using a variety of attack scenarios.
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From page 55... ...
This negotiation could possibly produce agreements on su~veillance, repositioning of forces to the rear, and limits on the size of exercises that would greatly enhance European security well before actual force reductions reached parity. Furthermore, it may turn out that reductions of troops and weapons by means of a series of reciprocal steps similar to the Soviet unilateral initiative of last December might be undertaken if the present plans prove too cumbersome.
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From page 56... ...
and Soviet troops stationed in Europe to a common ceiling of 275,000, that combat aircraft and helicopters be reduced to 15 percent below current Alliance holdings, and that all withdrawn equipment be destroyed. These new proposals will be tabled in detail in Vienna in September 1989.
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