Challenges for the 1990s for Arms Control and International Security (1989) / Chapter Skim
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1. Challenges for International Security in the 1990s
1. Challenges for International Security in the 1990s
Pages 1-12
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From page 1... ...
Press called me a while back to make these remarks tonight, and I was deeply honored to be invited, he was gentle in his polite way, but his underlying message was, "Keep it general, Woolsey, and do not try to lecture all these distinguished scientists, the way you are wont to from time to time, on Me virtues of small mobile ICBMs and 30 PSI hard mobile launchers and the like." This subtle admonition not to lecture, lawyer-like, recalled an expenence I had when I was a lieutenant in the Anny, working in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Alain Enthoven, in Systems Analysis, back at the end of the 1960s. My boss was an Air Force colonel, a very able man with a great deal of technical training and scientific background.
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From page 2... ...
The largest Kentucky fried chicken restaurant in the world is now on Tiananmen Square. So as the leadership of communist China walks out of the funeral which they are attending there~he memorial service past tens of thousands of students chanting slogans that would have been familiar to Thomas Jefferson, they are overseen by the founder of their regime and by the Kentucky colonel.
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From page 3... ...
I think the loins Chiefs' formulation some years ago about SALT II, "modest but useful," is about right and that we are moving into a period in which we could with a lithe bit of luck and some sensible planning on our own part and the continuation of Mr. Gorbachev's reforms in the Soviet Union—produce some reasonably modest, useful arms control agreements, both on strategic and on conventional forces.
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From page 4... ...
It may be quite hopeful, but it may not work out. After all, if one wants to look for historical comparisons—for Russia, let us say there was another nation, at one time a very powerful rlation, that stood on the frontiers of Europe, and had an extremely autocratic state and church culture, the church as part of the state.
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From page 5... ...
What I do believe is that for a substantial period of time some of the old verities of maintaining deterrence~eterrence with a nuclear component to it and collective security with allies such as NATO and Japan are going to have to be a centerpiece of our policy in dealing with the Soviet Union. Nuclear weapons cannot be "disinvented" anyway.
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From page 6... ...
It is something that can set a framework for us to continue to maintain a survivable and, hopefully, more boring nuclear deterrent as the years roll on and we see what develops in this relationship with the East, whether they take the path of modern Spain or of Russia under Alexander II. Conventional forces of some strength and numbers I believe we are going to need for a substantial number of years—partly for reasons unrelated to the Soviet Union, having to do with renegade states such as Libya and the rest.
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From page 7... ...
With the right type of changes on the Soviet side and on our side, however, I think we can expect some substantial changes in the structure of those forces deployed in Europe perhaps a rather greater reliance on reserves both in Europe for the Europeans and in the United States for ourselves. That, in my mind, is the best way to trot to save money in the defense budget, not to try to destroy the modernization of our forces and not to drag down the readiness across the board, as was done in the 1970s in the aftermath of Vietnam.
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From page 8... ...
~ want to finish up by saying something about what ~ think is going to be, in many ways, the major challenge for international security for all of us, if we are able to see a continued positive evolution in the Soviet Union, maintain our own defenses prudently as ~ have suggested and have, perhaps, some framework-seuing arms control agreements of the sort that we are pointing toward in START and in the CFE (Conventional Forces in Europe) talks, as both sides have made their proposals in Vienna.
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From page 9... ...
We have increased our available energy by seven times as much using conservation, seven times as much as we have from all net energy increases, and due to the improvements we have brought about since the first oil shock in 1973, our annual energy bill in this country is roughly $430 billion instead of $580 billion, saving $150 billion a year. As Everett Dirksen used to say, "$150 billion here, $150 billion there, before you know it, it adds up to real money." But, again, if we just had European and Japanese energy efficiency today, we would be saving approximately another $200 billion on our energy bill.
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From page 10... ...
Yes, we have lost in some key areas, in electronics, particularly In teIms of manufacturing capability, partially because some of our friends in Asia have reamed manufacturing and quality control techniques that were invented here and that we forgot. But in terms of some overall share, decline of our influence in the world compared win any other part of the twentieth century, except the days immediately following World War II, is very hard to find.
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From page 11... ...
; it would keep the defense budget stable, in real terms, thereby holding on to what we may need for international security; and we would have enough left over to quadruple our national investment rate from 2 up to ~ percent or so, the way we talked about a minute ago. This could be done with these several years of foregone increases in consumption and an actual decrease in consumption down to a consumption level that is $500 per family below today.
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From page 12... ...
If we do not urge it, what we resemble is a physician who sees an important patient win a serious degenerative disease and decides that he has to choose between letting the disease run its course and major surgery, even Cough a modest diet would solve the problem. And if you ask him ask us "Why don't you recommend a modest diet?
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