Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters and Techniques (2012) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix A - Federal Planning and Modeling Requirements
Appendix A - Federal Planning and Modeling Requirements
Pages 117-123
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From page 117... ...
The requirements for three agencies are presented -- the Environmental Protection Agency, the Federal Highway Administration, and the Federal Transit Administration -- and are up to date as of the time of the writing but are subject to change based on updated legislative and rulemaking actions. A.1 Environmental Protection Agency The most specific federal agency requirements for travel demand forecasting are found in the Transportation Conformity Rule, promulgated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
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From page 118... ...
, which are derived from the travel models used by transportation planning agencies to forecast travel demand under alternative transportation scenarios. The 1997 conformity rule amendments, among other changes, mandated the use of network-based travel models to support conformity determinations in certain nonattainment areas, and included other requirements relating to model structure, input assumptions, included variables, and validation procedures.
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From page 119... ...
In an effort to encourage its field planners to increase awareness of the importance of travel models at MPOs, the FHWA developed a "certification checklist for travel forecasting methods" (Federal Highway Administration, 2009) , to be used in certification reviews.
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From page 120... ...
To the extent that these changes are minimal, the FTA deems the older data acceptable for current day predictions. The success of rider surveys in capturing the current transit travel patterns depends on the design of the surveys in terms of the sampling plan, the questionnaire, and the data items included in the questionnaire.
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From page 121... ...
The FTA requires that the model forecasts serve as a useful basis for quantifying and understanding user benefits from the proposed New Starts projects. The implications of a careful calibration and validation methodology are threefold: first, it necessitates better current data; second, it calls for a better focus on transit markets; and third, it requires better tests and standards.
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From page 122... ...
The FTA defines validation as a valid description of travel behavior as well as plausible forecasts of "deltas" for the future year. The FTA recommends careful documentation of key transit markets, current transit modes, and calibration forecasts to help evaluate the overall effectiveness of the model for New Starts analysis.
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From page 123... ...
The FTA's expectations from travel models and the New Starts process can be summarized as follows: • Coherent narrative of the model parameters, inputs, and outputs; • Regular and early communication regarding model parameters and forecasts to ensure that the agency/sponsor is proceeding in the proper direction; • Reasonable model forecasts in light of the expected land use growth, service characteristics, and other project-related attributes; and • Proper documentation and uncertainty analysis, which is directly related to the requirement of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) of 2005 that asks the FTA to provide the U.S.
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