Distributed Decision Making Report of a Workshop (1990) / Chapter Skim
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Empirical Research for Distributed Decision Making
Empirical Research for Distributed Decision Making
Pages 7-20
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From page 7... ...
Standard operating procedures are designed to direct actions in uncertain situations; however, that very uncertainly often leaves some latitude for determining exactly what situation exists at any moment. lt woWd be very helpful to Mow how (and how weld people create, maintain, and manipulate their mental pictures of such complex, dynamic systems.
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From page 8... ...
of the different consequences, and combining all these considerations according to a defensible decision rule (von Winterfeldt and Edwards, 1986; Watson and Buede, 1988~. Basic research into cognitive processes suggests that these are difficult mental operations under any circumstances; specific research into intuitive decision-making processes shows a variety of potential deficiencies; the speeded conditions of decision making in distributed systems should severely stress whatever capabilities people bring to it.
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From page 9... ...
~ ~ r`~clllt th'~.re. i.~ the natural concern about their generalizability and ~ ~ ~ ~ _v ~ ~ even about whether apparently suboptimal behavior actually serves some higher goal (e.g., reflecting the occasional errors produced by generally valid judgmental strategies, reflecting strategies that pay on over a longer run than that inferred by the investigator)
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From page 10... ...
In some cases, they might even want to sacrifice a little actual reliability for more realistic operator expectations (Fischhoff and MacGregor, 1986~. Expectations for the components of distributed decision-maldng systems presumably draw on cognitive processes akin to those used in predicting the behavior of humans and machines in other situations (e.g., Fischhoff, MacGregor, and Blackshaw, 1987; Furnham, 1988; Moray, 1987a, 1987b; Moray and Rotenberg, 1989; Murphy and Rankler, 1984; Reason, in press)
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From page 11... ...
This imperative should be particularly strong in distributed decision-making systems because the promise of having a proxy expert online ~ the machines available at remote sites seems like an obvious way of maintaining a consistent policy and centralized control throughout. Like any other decision aid, the contribution of expert systems to system performance depends both on their capabilities and on the appropriateness of the faith placed in those capabilities.
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From page 12... ...
For example, is it better to examine potentially significant changes constantly to determine their effect on one's understanding? Or is it better to conduct periodic reviews, looking for aggregate impacts that might be more readily discernible recognizing that one may be functioning with an outdated model between reviews?
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From page 13... ...
Achieving this goal is in part a matter of training, so that distn~uted operators share certain common conceptions, and in part a matter of distributing current information, so that they stay in touch conceptually. Insofar as it is impossible to tell everybody everything, the designers of a system need to know what is the minimal level of explicit sharing needed to ensure adequate convergence of views.
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From page 14... ...
These are obvious parts of its design, which would exist even were there no technology involved at ale Considering technology raises a few issues calling for particular input from human factors specialists. One is how the distribution of technical knowledge about the equipment affects control over the system.
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From page 15... ...
Where this happens, changes in the technology or its management are needed (Impair, Fischhoff, and Johnson, 1988~. Research Topics in Organizational Behavior Most of the research topics described in the preceding sections concern the reality facing individuals in distributed decision-making systems and how their performance may be improved by better design of equipment and procedures.
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From page 16... ...
Because such change and maintenance are not always part of an organization's explicit mission, they may need to be studied and identified lest they be ignored. Research Methods for Distributed Decision Maldng Each of the research topics cited in the previous section of the report has particular methodological demands.
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From page 17... ...
Especially central participants may be reluctant to reveal what they lmow, in order to present themselves in a more favorable light. In addition, critical events may simply go unobserved.
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From page 18... ...
Participants agreed that significant research progress depends on the creation of a research community that allows and reinforces sustained interaction among leading scholars in the venous relevant disciplines, and between these scholars and substantive experts familiar with the operation of actual systems. Consideration of distributed decision-making systems raises cutting-edge issues in many disciplines.
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From page 19... ...
One response to these obstacles is to look elsewhere for researchers in settings less subject to the constraints of a university-based culture, say, to a private research and consulting organization. This is an appropriate solution when such an organization can provide the laud of enrichment that comes from interdisciplinary exchanges comparable to Pose of an academic environment and from the rigor that comes from peer review.
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