Finding Common Ground U.S. Export Controls in a Changed Global Environment (1991) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix J
Appendix J
Pages 349-355
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From page 349... ...
the use of quantitative analysis to assist in list construction. DEFINING AN ITEM GROUP To facilitate judgments about the need to control different items within a broad class of items (an internationally accepted standard category, for in 349
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From page 350... ...
Suppose that the highest performance version of I hasps = Pickax end p2 = P2maX The situation is shown graphically in Figure I- 1 . The shaded portion of this figure represents the subset of items of type I that are subject to export control.
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From page 351... ...
. · By dividing according to natural "technological generations." · By sorting specific products.
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From page 352... ...
However, an intelligence-based analysis of Soviet weapons systems development could be useful. USE OF QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS TO ASSIST IN LIST CONSTRUCTION In the list construction method proposed in Chapter 10, defense and intelligence decision makers identify dual use items of potential concern and then rank order them and assign weights to each item-group in terms of the security risks posed by trade to the targeted country.
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From page 353... ...
For purposes of illustration, however, suppose that it is. The communities concerned with foreign policy and international trade might produce a weighted list of the following sort to indicate their judgment of the relative costs of restricting trade in each item-group: Item-group R Item-group C Item-group F Item-group A Item-group B 470 points 336 109 53 32 1,000 If guidance provided in the national security directive on export controls led the decision makers doing the balancing to weight foreign policy and trade considerations with half the weight of national security considerations, the approximate net benefit of controlling each item-group could then be computed as follows: Item-group F Item-group B Item-group A Item-group R Item-group C 470 - (0.5*
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From page 354... ...
Then, foreign policy and trade decision makers might produce the following partly ordered list: Item-group R Item-group C Item-group F Item-group A Item-group B Suppose again, for illustration, that guidance provided in the national security directive leads decision makers to assign no weight to any itemgroup ranked as category 3, and twice the weight to items in category 1 as items in 2. Continuing to weight foreign policy and trade considerations with half the weight of national security considerations, there are 500 points to be allocated across two item-groups in category 1 and one item-group in category 2.
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From page 355... ...
One would never want to make decisions slavishly on the basis of such quantitative evaluations of the net benefits of proposed control. However, as a "decision aid" to assist decision makers to regularize the list construction process and focus their attention on the decisions for which their powers of qualitative judgment are most needed, a quantitative approach, of the sort briefly illustrated here, could be very useful in supporting the implementation of a specific decision process within the general philosophical framework proposed in Chapter 10.
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