Titanium Past, Present, and Future (1983) / Chapter Skim
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Chapter 10: Titanium Supply, Demand, and Price Trends
Chapter 10: Titanium Supply, Demand, and Price Trends
Pages 125-152
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From page 125... ...
defense strategy from dependence on manned aircraft to nonairbreathing missiles. Present and future sponge producers must have carefully examined the current prospects for titanium sponge and mill products before deciding to proceed with their expansion and new plant plans .
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From page 126... ...
Since 19 79, world capacity for producing titanium sponge has increased by 29 percent to 228 million lbs in 1981, including the Japanese expansion of 100 percent since early 1979. It will increase to about 270 million lbs based on new greenfield plants planned in the United States and the United Kingdom.' In addition, there are many announced or unannounced studies being conducted in the United States and abroad concerning the opening of new sponge plants.
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From page 127... ...
Imported sponge accounted f or about 25 percent of the sponge consumed during the f irst half of the 1970s. This declined to about 10 percent when imported sponge was in short supply due to the virtual withdrawal of Soviet sponge and the diversion of Japanese sponge to it s own and European consumption.
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From page 128... ...
, . ,_ ~[ piracy /// Estimated Spot Prices (excess capacity J 0 ~I I I ~ 1 1979 1 980 1 98t ~ 1982 1983 1984 YEAR Figure 19 Ti tank sponge prices .
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Moreover, Western World (U.S., Japanese, and European) sponge capacity is 125 million lbs, 40 million lbs above f ull ingot melting capacity.
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S . melting capacity could be increased relatively quickly at a co st of about $1,000 per annual ton, in contrast with the estimate of $10,000 per annual ton for new sponge capacity .
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The deformation processing characteristics of titanium and its alloys are similar to those of stainless steel except that greater attention must be paid to surf ace processing with attendant greater losses. The problem of high deformation resistance of titanium alloys could be overcome by the use of heavier equipment capable of larger reductions at lower temperatures.
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From page 132... ...
The mill capacity to produce large titanium plate is believed to be ent irely adequate . Approximately two-thirds of the total capacity to produce mill products of all types resides with the three integrated producers of sponge titanium, TIMET, RMI and OREMET, and one nonintegrated company, Martin Marietta Aluminum (MMA)
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S market for titanium mill products was about 50 million lbs and was composed roughly of 70 to 80 percent commercial and military aerospace demand in equal amount s and 20 tc, 30 percent of other industrial demand .
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TABLE 31 1980 U.S. Titanium Mill Products Production (millions of lbs)
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The industrial market probably has been hurt by the sharp increase in the cost of titanium mill products, particularly tubing. Thus, over the next five years an oversupply of U.S.
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From page 136... ...
The $5-$6 per lb price, which reflects actual costs plus a reasonable return on investment, could stimulate increased sales of titanium products. Long Term The key question for the long term is: At what stage of maturity is titanium with its present size of 25,000 tons per year of mill products?
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Source: Williams 1965, updated by Wood 1981. Major Future Titanium Markets Several ma jar applications f or titanium appear to be in the of f ing that might require a titanium industry at least twice its present size.
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From page 138... ...
The assumptions in Table 33 of 6,000 new aircraft by 2000 and the buy weight of titanium for the average modern transport at about 40,000 lbs appear to be realistic. Thus, the amount of titanium mill products needed in new commercial aircraft is estimated to be 240 million lbs.
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From page 140... ...
TABLE 34 Estimated Titanium Mill Product Requirements Selected Hi litary Aircraf t, 1981-1985 (millions of lbs) Mode 1 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 F-14 1.856 1.8561.350a a F-15 4.442 4.4421.568a a F-16 1.162 1.1620.5361.072 b F-18 1.844 1.8440.615b b A-10 0.262 0.262bb b B-1 __ c2.614~ 1.329 10.457 _ ~ Total 9.566 9.5666.68312.401 10.457 a Production runs terminating.
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From page 141... ...
The present capacity of the titanium industry supplemented with imported sponge should be able to meet this additional requirement without expansion. Industrial The world industrial market for titanium in 1978 and 1980 was 21 and 24 million lbs, respectively, and was distributed by type of mill product as shown in Table 35.
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From page 143... ...
Ap plicat~on 1978 1980 Heat transfer 11 13 Electrodes 5 5 Chemical equipment 4 4 Mi scellaneous 1 1 Total 21 24 Source: Kane 1981. These categories were broken down further in Table 37; these data will be used as a basis for estimating long-term demand.
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S titanium industry to take cognizance of OTEC' s existence and assiduously to mono tor its progress worldwide.
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titanium mill product production in it s peak year, 198()
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General Electric plans to use an aluminum heat exchanger and Ocean Thermal, titanium (Richards 1982~. Ti tantrum i s a logical candidate f or OTEC heat exchangers because it can be expected to serve reliably for at least 30 years whereas aluminum presents serious questions about adequate longevity; estimated at 15 years despite at least doubled wall thickness compared with titanium.
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Chemical Process Equl pment (Excluding Heat Transfer) After a long period of introduction, titanium has become a well-established material of construction for chemical process equipment ~ Table 41)
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From page 148... ...
TABLE 41 Ti tanium Use in Chemical Process Equipment (millions of lbs . Equipment Type 1978 1980 _ Tanks and vessels 2.0 2.5 Mixers and internals 0.5 0.6 Drum washers and diffusers 0.5 0.6 Piping systems 0.4 0.3 Hardware - pumps, valves, etc.
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From page 149... ...
Titanium alloys also could be useful for deep geothermal wells because the environment is similar, although the temperatures and pressures are less. However, far fewer geothermal wells would be drilled.
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From page 150... ...
As the supply of titanium products nears the capacity of the domestic industry supplemented by imports, the shortage is easily exacerbated by purchases for inventory anticipating short supply. This drives up the price of titanium and extends delivery lead time s .
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Many projected major new applications will not materialize if the prices of titanium mill products stay at their present level relative to the price of alternative materials. Thus, the anticipated decline in titanium prices resulting f ram increased worldwide sponge capacity should have a marked beneficial effect in stabilizing and expanding the industrial market.
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From page 152... ...
AVERY, W H., OTEC Methanol, APL Quarterly Report, October-December 1981, 9-10.
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