Estimating Losses from Future Earthquakes Panel Report (1989) / Chapter Skim
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9. Conclusions and Recommendations
9. Conclusions and Recommendations
Pages 66-77
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From page 66... ...
9 Conclusions and Recommendations SUMMARY GUIDELINES FOR MULTIPURPOSE, [ARG~SCA[E EARTHQUAKE [OSS EST=ATES This chapter presents the panel's conclusions and recornmendations for conducting general loss estimate studies of the type currently being funded by FEMA and primarily intended for use by local and state governments for disaster response and mitigation planning, and to aid in the formulation and implementation of near- and long-term strategies for earthquake hazard reduction. study Preparation and Pawning The objectives and scope of a study must be defined clearly and early in a study.
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From page 67... ...
More complex representations of ground shaking, for example, through a filtered detectives peak motion, a s~ngle-degreeof-freedom linear response spectrum, a nonlinear spectrum, a time history of motion, and the duration of strong shaking, have the ability to be more accurate predictors of damage and loss. There is less agreement, however, on how to estimate these functions for a future earthquake, how to quantify the single- or multidimensional hazard associated with them, and how to derive an accurate predictor of damage from them.
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From page 68... ...
from actual earthquake experiences. This information takes the form of average property loss ratios for selected classes of buildings versus intensity of ground shaking.
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From page 69... ...
prefers a method set forth by ATC in which casualty rates are linked to degree of damage and class of construction; this is a rational approach but must be used with considerable judgment. Estimates for the number of people requiring shelter are also important for planning of postdisaster operations, and for this purpose as well as for casualty prediction it is necessary to forecast the amount of severe damage rather than just the mean overall Toss.
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From page 70... ...
Unfortunately, to do this systematically is a major and expensive task, and it may be necessary to rely on the judgment of experts. ATC has developed a rational sequence of steps for developing DPMs for structures affected by ground failure, once such areas have been identified by geologists and geotechnical engineers.
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From page 71... ...
Precise quantitative loss estimates are not always necessary to point the way toward improvements in hazard reduction and emergency planning efforts. An inventory of hazardous materials is desirable, but its preparation will depend on state and local inventories and existing programs of environmental health agencies and fire departments.
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From page 72... ...
Independent Guidance and Review Experts unaffiliated with the organizations conducting a loss study should provide independent guidance and review of an earthquake loss study. This policy is recommended for budgeting and implementation in future federally funded loss studies.
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From page 73... ...
While no one can promise that a loss study will lead to the passage of improved building or land-use ordinances, it is possible to schedule statewide conferences, as well as legislative briefings, for building officials and city planners following the completion of a loss study to consider its implications. State and local offices of emergency services can be expected to take a new loss study's findings into account in their earthquake disaster response planning, and this emergency plan revision effort can be scheduled to begin when the Toss study is completed.
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From page 74... ...
Two examples from the inventory part of the problem are: Where an exact inventory exists, such as with unreinforced masonry buildings in Los Angeles, compare these hard data with the inventories established by approximate methods; Where an approximate loss estimation inventory has been prepared for a region, and this inventory can be disaggregated to small areas, prepare for comparison a complete inventory of one or more categories of buildings for a small area Corresponding opportunities will occur for other components of an overall methodology, for example, predicted and actual intensity of ground motion, or comparison of maps showing probable ground failure zones with maps locating actual failures prepared after an earthquake. Sensitivity Analysis For one or more methods, the pane!
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From page 75... ...
Such studies should be done using methods involving different degrees of approximation, and the resulting differences in the mean and ranges of estimated losses contrasted with the effort to prepare the estunate. Development of Unproved Methods The ATC-13 report and other recent studies have made excellent contributions toward development of improved methods for evaluating losses.
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From page 76... ...
For example, while reconnaissance efforts are common, collection of good-quality damage data and information on casualties, property loss, and functional loss requires noting the performance of all buildings of a given type in a given area. Documenting the performance of only the small number of buildings that experience dramatic damage does not provide the needed statistics.
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From page 77... ...
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