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Appendix D: Reports on Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections to 2050
Appendix D: Reports on Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections to 2050
Pages 171-206
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From page 171... ...
These estimates are based on studies that evaluated the fuelconsumption reduction potential of plausible improvements in vehicle technologies, including alternative powertrains. Each entry in Table D.1 is the fuel consumption (in gasoline equivalent)
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. Greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen production are estimated for hydrogen produced from natural gas.
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For example, while the NRC report Transitions to Alternative Transport Technologies: A Focus on Hydrogen (NRC, 2008) concluded that up to 2 million hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs)
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The cumulative fuel savings under each scenario compared with this no-change baseline are indicated. Note that this no-change baseline includes some growth in overall fleet size and miles driven but no resulting change in vehicle fuel economy.
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Figure D.3 depicts the maximum potential build-up of cellulosic ethanol, one of the alternative fuels specified as part of the Renewable Fuel Standard 2 (RFS2)
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TABLE D.5 Net CO2 Emissions (tonnes per barrel gasoline eqivalent) Fuel Type Net CO2 CFT 1.06 CFT-CCS 0.44 CMTG 1.10 CMTG-CCS 0.42 Corn ethanol 0.37 Cellulosic ethanol −0.10 BTL −0.13 BTL-CCS −0.76 CBFT 0.49 CBFT-CCS −0.21 CBMTG 0.47 CBMTG-CCS −0.13 Gasoline 0.42 176
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GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (DOT, 2010) Under EISA 2007, the Department of Transportation (DOT)
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Hydrogen fuel cells were considered separately because they would require a transition to an alternative fuel. In addition to technology that addresses fuel consumption, it is possible to reduce GHG emissions by addressing mobile air conditioning (MAC)
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Utility factors for the PHEV-10, -40, and -60 are 0.23, 0.60, and 0.75, respectively. D.3.3 Vehicle Miles Traveled Strategies An alternative way to reduce fuel consumption by the transportation sector is to simply use vehicles less.
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2 They looked at a range of battery and hydrogen fuel cell prices to examine the potential for novel technologies to make a significant impact. Although hybrid vehicles require a small battery, it is a small component of the cost of the vehicle, and because of its 33 percent reduction in consumption beyond that of the advanced ICE vehicle (ICEV)
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. In the LDV fleet, these efficiency improvements would result in a fleetwide fuel economy of 35 mpg by 2050.
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A major result in all studies is the complete lack of hydrogen vehicle penetration -- the authors note, however, that hydrogen penetration is particularly sensitive to the cost of fuel cell technology, oil price, and discount rate assumed. By comparing the scenarios with and without a biofuel mandate, it is clear that ethanol use in the fleet for flex-fuel vehicles is driven by a mandate; however, looking at the fuel mix results, ethanol still can have significant penetration, even without a mandate.
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TABLE D.8 Assumptions for the Three Deep-Reduction Scenarios for U.S. Domestic Emissions in 2050 Shares of Miles by Fuel Type Normalized Normalized Normalized Transport Energy Carbon Intensity Intensity Intensity Petroleum Biofuels Hydrogen Electricity (1990=100%)
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FIGURE D.5 Greenhouse gas emissions for the transportation sector in 2050 for deep-reduction scenarios. SOURCE: McCollum and Yang (2009)
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The panel's report focuses on actions to reduce domestic GHG emissions and other human drivers of climate change, such as changes in land use. As part of its analysis, it examined the energy demand from the transportation sector.
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However, in the case of electric vehicles, shifting the fuel source to the grid would require a decarbonization of the grid to make a significant impact. New natural gas plants can compete with new coal plants thanks to the plummeting costs of natural gas, and it emits about half the CO2.
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For biofuel availability, the authors estimate as much as 60 billion gallons could be produced annually in 2050. In the case of electricity, the report cautions against battery electric vehicles due to costs and range anxiety, estimating instead as many as 20 million PHEVs on the road by 2050.
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FIGURE D.8 Greenhouse gas emissions from the U.S. transportation sector for different policy scenarios.
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The level of fuel economy necessary to reduce GHG emissions by 1 gigaton is highly dependent on the initial level of fuel economy in the base case. If instead of 30 mpg the average fleetwide fuel economy today were 24 mpg, then the entire fleet would only need to achieve 40 mpg in 2050 to achieve a reduction of 1 gigaton of carbon.
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From page 192... ...
In this case, however, the authors found that the carbon emissions reductions from using carbon-free electricity that displaces coal and natural gas power plants were significantly larger than using this carbon-free electricity that displaces gasoline and diesel. D.9.4 Biomass Fuel for Fossil Fuel The displacement of carbon-rich fossil fuel with biofuels offers another potential wedge.
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Via conventional vehicle technologies (including but not limited to lightweighting, aerodynamics, and transmission upgrades) , the report estimates that "evolutionary vehicle technologies could, if focused on vehicle efficiency, reduce fuel consumption by 2.6 percent per year through 2025, 1.7 percent per year in the 2025-2035 time frame, and 0.5 percent per year between 20352050" (p.
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This would result in an upper bound of 63 billion gallons of ethanol producible in 2050. D.10.4 Greenhouse Gas Emissions The committee examined three scenarios that offered substantial CO2 emissions reductions by 2050: (1)
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2011 2015 2020 2030 PHEV-40 14,100-18,100 11,200-14,200 9,600-12,200 8,800-11,000 PHEV-10 5,500-6,300 4,600-5,200 4,100-4,500 3,700-4,100 D.11 TRANSITIONS TO ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGIES -- PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES (NRC, 2010b) PHEVs were not included in the original analysis of this committee (NRC, 2008; see Section D.10)
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. D.11.3 Petroleum and Greenhouse Gas Reductions A PHEV gets its fuel economy benefits from the fact that the vehicle is using an electric motor for a substantial fraction of its mileage.
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clean grid. Greenhouse gas (GHG)
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TABLE D.13 Key Parameters of Power Generation Scenarios Scenario Definition High CO2 Intensity Medium CO2 Intensity Low CO2 Intensity Price of greenhouse gas Low Moderate High emission allowances Power plant retirements Slower Normal Faster New generation Unavailable: Available: Available: technologies Coal with CCS IGCC coal with CCS Retrofit of CCS to New nuclear New nuclear existing IGCC and PC New biomass New biomass plants Advanced renewables Lower performance: Nominal EPRI Higher performance: SCPC, CCNG, GT, wind, Performance Wind and solar and solar Assumptions Annual electricity demand 1.56% per year on 1.56% per year on 2010-2025: 0.45% growth average average 2025-2050: None NOTE: PC = pulverized coal; CCNG = combined cycle natural gas; CCS = carbon capture and storage; SCPC = supercritical pulverized coal; GT = gas turbine (natural gas)
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3 When the PHEV is running in charge-sustaining mode, it is assumed that it will have the same fuel economy as a hybrid vehicle. The hybrid is assumed to have 35 percent better fuel consumption than a similar conventional vehicle.
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High Medium Low PHEV Fleet Low 163 177 193 Penetration Scenario Medium 394 468 478 High 474 517 612 D.13 STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACT OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE (BURBANK, 2009) This study was commissioned by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials as part of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program through the TRB and examines the ability of the United States to reduce GHG emissions in the transportation sector.
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D.13.1 Light-Duty Vehicle Scenarios In order to ascertain future directions of policy and the potential for GHG reductions in the transportation sector, a series of projected scenarios were carried out looking forward to GHG emissions in 2050. They assumed some amount of operational efficiency improvements (e.g., traffic smoothing, "ecodriving")
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D.14 ASSESSMENT OF FUEL ECONOMY TECHNOLOGIES FOR LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES (NRC, 2011) The Committee on the Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy was faced with the task of assessing the costs of LDV technologies that might be used to reduce fuel consumption in vehicles over the next 15 years, including significant changes to the powertrain and advanced lightweighting.
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D.15 LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLE FUEL CONSUMPTION DISPLACEMENT POTENTIAL UP TO 2045 (ANL, 2011) The Vehicle Modeling and Simulation group at Argonne National Laboratory prepared a report that examined the technologies likely to be implemented by 2045 and the costs associated with them in order to evaluate the breadth of LDV technologies and ensure that the DOE is focusing its research on the most promising technologies.
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This is followed by the percentage of cellulosic ethanol in future gasoline, which has a strong impact on the well-to-wheel emissions of the fleet. There is a comparable strong dependence on the emphasis on reducing fuel consumption (ERFC)
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2008. On the Road in 2035: Reducing Transportation's Petroleum Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
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2007. Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles -- Volume 1: Nationwide Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
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