Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels (2013) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix G: Fuels
Appendix G: Fuels
Pages 305-330
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From page 305... ...
The quantities are measured in terms of ethanol equivalent gallons. • Advanced biofuels, which are renewable fuels other than corn-grain ethanol, achieve at least a 50 percent reduction in life-cycle GHG emissions.
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From page 306... ...
1 The mandate requires 4 billion gallons per year of advanced biofuels measured in terms of ethanol equivalent gallons in 2022. • Cellulosic biofuels are renewable fuels derived from any cellulose, hemicellulose, or lignin from renewable biomass that achieve at least a 60 percent reduction in life-cycle GHG emissions.
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From page 307... ...
RFS2 requires that all renewable fuels be made from feedstocks that meet a new definition of renewable biomass. In EISA 2007, the definition of renewable biomass incorporates land restrictions for planted crops, crop residue, planted trees and tree residue, slash and precommercial thinnings, and biomass from wildfire areas.
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From page 308... ...
The panel assessed the potential availability of biomass feedstock that would not incur competition for land with crops or pasture and for which the environmental impact of biomass production for biofuels was no worse than the original land use. They concluded that 550 million dry tons of cellulosic feedstock could be sustainably produced for biofuels in 2020.
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From page 309... ...
0.89 gge/day $530 TABLE G.3 2030 Fuel Infrastructure Investment Costs per Vehicle -- Highest to Lowest 2030 Investment Cost, Infrastructure $/gge per day or Car Fuel Use/Day, Investment Cost, Alternate Fuel $/kWh per day gge/day or kWh/day $/Vehicle Electricity BEV 330 $/kWh per day 8.92 kWh/day $2,930 Electricity (PHEV-40) 530 $/kWh per day 5.45 kWh/day $2,880 Biofuel (thermochemical)
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From page 310... ...
Actions to ensure continued research, development, X X X demonstration and deployment of CCS.d Actions to encourage the initial deployment of the fuel infrastructure to coincide with Xe Xf Xg X vehicle introductions and early growth. Actions to reduce the consumer price of alternate fuels at the beginning of a transition to Xh X X X encourage the use in existing vehicles or new vehicle types.
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From page 311... ...
primarily analyzed biomass production from energy crops and forest and agricultural residue recovery. Its estimate of biomass availability for cellulosic biofuels in 2022 is comparable to the 550 million dry tons that the NAS-NAE-NRC (2009)
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From page 312... ...
forestlands, including roundwood products, logging residues, and other removals from growing stock and other sources, were estimated to be about 21.2 billion cubic feet annually, which is about 320 million dry tons of biomass. This level of harvest is well below net annual forest growth and only a small fraction of the total timberland inventory (Figure G.4)
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From page 313... ...
However, the adequacy of an attributional LCA for reliably assessing the GHG impacts of fuels is being called into question, with GHG emission effects from land-use changes being a major area of uncertainty. Complex LCA calculations, including estimated changes in land use induced by increasing use of biomass as an energy source, have shown variable results because of different assumptions on the magnitude of the changes, the amount of GHG emitted, and the time frame considered.
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From page 314... ...
Growing dedicated bioenergy crops could be a better management for some unmanaged pasture or abandoned cropland than their current use, because dedicated bioenergy crops can have deep root systems and sequester carbon in soil. The GHG emissions of most concern and uncertainty are the secondary emissions that result from displacement of food crops by bioenergy feedstock (for example, corn, soybean, and switchgrass)
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From page 315... ...
The large first-year GHG emissions takes 14 years to be repaid by the GHG benefits of corn-grain ethanol instead of petroleum-based fuels. For the purpose of approximating annual emissions impacts for biofuel scenarios, an assumption is made here that the ILUC emissions associated with an expansion of biofuel capacity all occur in the first year.
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From page 316... ...
The annual GHG emission profiles of these two expansion scenarios are given in Table G.6, which includes annual values for the calculated WTW GHG emissions relative to petroleum-based gasoline on a gallon of gasoline equivalent basis. WTW GHG emissions for petroleum-based gasoline are 98 kg CO2e/MMBtu or 11.38 kg CO2e/gge.
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From page 317... ...
TABLE G.6 GHG Emissions for Biofuels Relative to Petroleum-Based Fuels Only Meeting RFS2 Corn-Grain Ethanol "Drop-In" Cellulosic Biofuels Maximum Biofuels Billion Percent GHG Reduction Percent GHG Reduction GHG Reduction Gallons Per Compared to Petroleum- Billion Compared to Petroleum- Billion Compared to Year Year Based Fuels gge/year Based Fuels gge/year Petroleum-Based Fuels 2010 13 48.0 2011 14 118 2012 15 113 2013 15 48.0 2014 15 48.0 2015 15 48.0 0.8 507 1.9 507 2016 15 48.0 1.6 260 3.8 560 2017 15 48.0 2.3 177 5.8 177 2018 15 48.0 3.1 136 7.7 136 2019 15 48.0 3.9 111 9.6 111 2020 15 48.0 4.7 95.8 11.5 94.8 2021 15 48.0 5.5 83.1 13.4 83.1 2022 15 48.0 6.3 74.2 15.4 74.2 2023 15 48.0 7.0 67.4 17.3 67.4 2024 15 48.0 7.8 61.9 19.2 61.9 2025 15 48.0 8.6 57.4 21.1 57.4 2026 15 48.0 9.1 53.6 23.0 53.6 2027 15 48.0 10.2 50.4 25.0 50.4 2028 15 48.0 10.9 47.7 26.9 47.7 2029 15 48.0 11.7 45.4 28.8 45.4 2030 15 48.0 12.5 43.3 30.7 43.3 2031 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 32.6 41.5 2032 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 34.6 39.9 2033 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 36.5 38.4 2034 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 38.4 37.1 2035 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 40.3 35.9 2036 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 42.2 34.9 2037 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 44.2 33.9 2038 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 46.1 33.0 2039 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 48.0 32.2 2040 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 49.9 31.4 2041 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 51.8 30.7 2042 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 53.8 30.0 2043 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 55.7 29.4 2044 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 57.6 28.9 2045 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 59.5 28.3 2046 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 61.4 27.8 2047 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 63.4 27.4 2048 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 65.3 26.9 2049 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 67.2 26.5 2050 15 48.0 12.5 12.4 69.1 26.1 317
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From page 318... ...
In addition, the LCA GHG emission calculations assume the current emissions profile from electricity generation and that all transportation fuels used to grow, harvest, and transport the biomass are produced from petroleum. As the electricity grid is decarbonized and the biofuel industry expands, the emissions from these sources will decrease as would the overall GHG emissions from biofuels.
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From page 319... ...
Each vehicle is assumed to travel 13,000 miles per year with the fraction of electric miles taken from the NRC study Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies -- Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (NRC, 2010) : 20 percent electric miles for PHEV-10, 60 percent for PHEV-40, and 100 percent for the all EVs.
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From page 320... ...
TABLE G.8 Reference Grid 2010 2020 2035 2050 PHEV-10 AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.088 0.092 0.094 Charger cost, $/car 849 748 598 448 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.066 0.058 0.047 0.035 Into LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.162 0.146 0.139 0.129 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2499 2418 2753 3042 WTT GHG kgCO2/kWh 0.631 0.582 0.594 0.592 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.06 19.42 19.85 19.78 Investment, $/kWh/day 362 319 255 191 Investment, $/gge/day 12317 10862 8679 6495 PHEV-15 AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.088 0.092 0.094 Charger cost, $/car 849 748 598 448 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.048 0.042 0.034 0.025 Into LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.144 0.130 0.126 0.119 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2499 2418 2753 3042 WTT GHG kgCO2/kWh 0.631 0.582 0.594 0.592 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.06 19.42 19.85 19.78 Investment, $/kWh/day 260 230 183 137 Investment, $/gge/day 8853 7807 6238 4669 PHEV-20 AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.088 0.092 0.094 Charger cost, $/car 849 748 598 448 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.038 0.034 0.027 0.020 Into LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.134 0.122 0.119 0.114 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2499 2418 2753 3042 WTT GHG kgCO2/kWh 0.631 0.582 0.594 0.592 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.06 19.42 19.85 19.78 Investment, $/kWh/day 208 184 147 110 Investment, $/gge/day 7082 6246 4990 3735 PHEV-30 AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.088 0.092 0.094 Charger cost, $/car 4183 3411 2606 1926 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.139 0.113 0.087 0.064 Into LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.235 0.201 0.179 0.158 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2499 2418 2753 3042 WTT GHG kgCO2/kWh 0.631 0.582 0.594 0.592 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.06 19.42 19.85 19.78 Investment, $/kWh/day 760 620 474 350 Investment, $/gge/day 25854 21085 16111 11906 PHEV-40 AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.088 0.092 0.094 Charger cost, $/car 4183 3411 2606 1926 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.123 0.100 0.077 0.057 Into the LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.219 0.188 0.169 0.151 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2499 2418 2753 3042 WTT GHG kg CO2/kWh 0.631 0.582 0.594 0.592 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.06 19.42 19.85 19.78 Investment, $/kWh/day 673 549 419 310 Investment, $/gge/day 22888 18666 14262 10539 Battery Electric AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.088 0.092 0.094 Charger cost, $/car 4237 3460 2646 1957 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.076 0.062 0.047 0.035 Into the LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.172 0.150 0.139 0.129 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2499 2418 2753 3042 WTT GHG kg CO2/kWh 0.631 0.582 0.594 0.592 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.06 19.42 19.85 19.78 Investment, $/kWh/day 416 340 260 192 Investment, $/gge/day 14142 11548 8833 6533 320
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From page 321... ...
TABLE G.9 Low GHG Grid Case 2010 2020 2035 2050 PHEV-10 AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.112 0.126 0.148 Charger cost, $/car 849 748 598 448 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.066 0.058 0.047 0.035 Into LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.162 0.170 0.173 0.183 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2516 1771 1270 648 WTT GHG kg CO2/kWh 0.635 0.463 0.319 0.155 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.21 15.48 10.67 5.17 Investment, $/kWh/day 362 319 255 191 Investment, $/gge/day 12317 10862 8679 6495 PHEV-15 AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.112 0.126 0.148 Charger cost, $/car 849 748 598 448 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.048 0.042 0.034 0.025 Into LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.144 0.130 0.126 0.119 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2516 1771 1270 648 WTT GHG kg CO2/kWh 0.635 0.463 0.319 0.155 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.21 15.48 10.67 5.17 Investment, $/kWh/day 260 230 183 137 Investment, $/gge/day 8853 7807 6238 4669 PHEV-20 AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.112 0.126 0.148 Charger cost, $/car 849 748 598 448 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.038 0.034 0.027 0.020 Into LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.134 0.122 0.119 0.114 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2516 1771 1270 648 WTT GHG kg CO2/kWh 0.635 0.463 0.319 0.155 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.21 15.48 10.67 5.17 Investment, $/kWh/day 208 184 147 110 Investment, $/gge/day 7082 6246 4990 3735 PHEV-30 AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.112 0.126 0.148 Charger cost, $/car 4183 3411 2606 1926 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.139 0.113 0.087 0.064 Into LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.235 0.201 0.179 0.158 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2516 1771 1270 648 WTT GHG kg CO2/kWh 0.635 0.463 0.319 0.155 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.21 15.48 10.67 5.17 Investment, $/kWh/day 760 620 474 350 Investment, $/gge/day 25854 21085 16111 11906 PHEV-40 AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.112 0.126 0.148 Charger cost, $/car 4183 1967 1266 690 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.123 0.058 0.037 0.020 Into the LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.219 0.170 0.163 0.168 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2516 1771 1270 648 WTT GHG kg CO2/kWh 0.635 0.463 0.319 0.155 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.21 15.48 10.67 5.17 Investment, $/kWh/day 673 549 419 310 Investment, $/gge/day 22888 18666 14262 10539 Battery Electric AEO base elec cost, $/kWh 0.096 0.112 0.126 0.148 Charger cost, $/car 4237 3460 2646 1957 Charger cost, $/kWh 0.076 0.062 0.047 0.035 Into the LDV elec cost, $/kWh 0.172 0.174 0.173 0.183 AEO GHG, MMTCO2 2516 1771 1270 648 WTT GHG kg CO2/kWh 0.635 0.463 0.319 0.155 WTT GHG, kg CO2/gge 21.21 15.48 10.67 5.17 Investment, $/kWh/day 416 340 260 192 Investment, $/gge/day 14142 11548 8833 6533 321
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From page 322... ...
G.6.4 Conversion of Existing Power Generation Sources to Low-GHG Emissions Beyond the investment needed to provide the incremental power for EVs, there is an additional cost required to convert the existing grid to produce much lower emissions of GHGs, especially CO2. This is because the grid does not preferentially transmit power from particular plants to specific loads.
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From page 323... ...
However, the optimal mix of technologies for producing natural gas-based fuels is unclear. Issues include the cost of 1 gge in comparison with petroleum-based fuels, the need for any new fuel manufacturing and distribution infrastructure, the minimum economic increment of infrastructure investment, the availability and cost of vehicle technologies suitable for the particular fuel, and the life-cycle GHG emissions of the various natural gas-based fuel and vehicle technologies.
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From page 324... ...
• GHG emissions are high relative to other alternative fuels. G.7.1.4 Natural Gas to Methanol ("The Methanol Economy")
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From page 325... ...
An FCEVs also uses a battery and an electric motor, but replaces the ICE with a hydrogen fuel cell. Table G.11 shows annual total natural gas usage if the entire LDV fleet was powered with conventional ICEs using natural gas as fuel from various pathways.
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From page 326... ...
, methanol's decline might have been prompted in part by the occasional dramatic increases in natural gas prices, from which methanol is manufactured. Methanol is one of the alternative fuels being pursued in China.
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From page 327... ...
With the recent emergence of plentiful and potentially cheap natural gas and, therefore, the potential for plentiful and cheap methanol, methanol will likely remain under consideration as an alternative fuel, probably prompting further studies of its environmental characteristics and health effects. G.9 INFRASTRUCTURE AND IMPLEMENTATION FOR COMPRESSED NATURAL GAS AS AN AUTOMOBILE FUEL G.9.1 Capital Costs of the Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure The EIA forecasts show significant increases in future natural gas usage, albeit not for automotive use.
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From page 328... ...
A station would serve 1,000 cars per week, 10 gge/fill/car/week, with $0.50 margin over the cost of natural gas for a 15 percent return on investment. The natural gas filling station infrastructure costs can be estimated based on the above investment offer by assuming one filling station per 1,000 CNG vehicles and a cost of $1.3 million per filling station (land, buildings, and equipment)
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From page 329... ...
2010. Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies -- Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles.
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From page 330... ...
2011. Electric utility preparations for electric vehicles.
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