Outlook for Nuclear Power Presentations at the Technical Session of the Annual Meeting--November 1, 1979, Washington, D.C. (1980) / Chapter Skim
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Need for Nuclear Power Worldwide: World Regional Energy Modeling
Need for Nuclear Power Worldwide: World Regional Energy Modeling
Pages 1-25
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From page 1... ...
The bases are two scenarios -- defined by close to observed trends of population and economic growth -- that indicate a conceivable energy demand range until 2030. These scenarios are quantified for seven comprehensive world regions by way of a highly iterative model set designed at IIASA to study long-term, dynamic, and regional/global aspects of large-scale energy systems.
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• There is a severe lack of input data, required for standard energy planning tools, with respect to the 50-year time frame and the way the world will then look geopolitically. Or what about elasticities, for example, i.e., the change in percent in the demand for a given secondary energy as a function of percentage changes in various determinants, such as prices or gross domestic product?
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From page 3... ...
The remaining 6% enjoy a per capita energy use of 7-l2 kWyr/yr. If, as in Figure 3, one assumes a doubling of the world population in the coming 50 years -- a change Keyfitz considers rather conservative -- and in an increase in the per capita average to 3 or 5 kWyr/yr, the world's energy demand rises to 24 or 40 TWyr/yr, respectively.
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billion people 10 + 8 6 2 study period world in transition 1800 1900 2000 2100 FIGURE 3 World population: historical and projected.
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This linear programming model allocates specified quantities of primary energy, such as oil, gas, coal, uranium, etc., to the generation of secondary energy over a period of 50 years. It produces optimal discounted costs and, most important, takes into account various constraints, providing in this sense an optimal supply mix of primary energies in a region.
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o o LU CC _= = >>>> D a z < oo 2< a: tUJ 00 i < <_> 2 X < 5 I E I = Q < 2 OC LU O 2 << *
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In the Low Scenario, the per capita GDP growth for North America (Region I) goes down to 0.7%/yr, and that for Europe (or more exactly, Region III)
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It surfaces in the discussion on energy coefficients, that is the percentage of energy growth required per percent of GDP growth. And as we will see in a moment, differentiation of final energy and primary energy is very important in this context.
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. Such demand considerations lead to a per capita primary energy demand in the scenarios as in Table 3t a world average of 3 or 4.5 kWyr/yr, respectively, in 2030 -- similarly as was noted above -- instead of 2 kWyr/ yr per person as of today.
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l0 M-l 0 c o -H -- P -H 01 •d in O 0)
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ll I in Q
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101975 2000 2030 of about 2, considerable inequities between developed and developing countries remain, and the gap continues to be a problem far into the next century. The global primary energy demand is projected in Table 4, with 22 TWyr/yr in the Low Scenario and 36 TWyr/yr in the High Scenario.
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At the other end of the spectrum, however, there are world energy consumption estimates of clearly more than 40 TWyr/yr. The political concept of the New Economic Order, for example, pronounced by the UN group of the 77 at UNCTAD conferences, leads to such higher energy demand values.
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Geologists apparently tend towards cautious estimates. Economists, on the other hand, guided by the role of price increases, proceed from a de facto unlimited resource base.
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, j- b.U fuel farms Solar panels Soil storage 5.0 Heat pumps Hydropower 2.9 Wind 3.0 OTEC l.0 Geothermal 0.2 Organic wastes 0.l Glacier power 0.l Tidal 0.04 TOTAL 20 5.l l.0 l.5 l.0 0.5 0.6 0.l 0 0 9.7 TW ecological climatological economic technological ecological social economic ecological climatological technological economic balanced technological computational
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In the present context, the question is above all the magnitude of what nuclear energy can at best Demand lamie of demand densities, typical urban systems 1975 W/m' -r 10 f t 1.0 range of demand densities, Regions l -Vll 2030 0.1" FIGURE l0 Energies densities. 0.01 -4 -- Supply wind (North Sea coast)
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primary energy consumption of l7 TWyr/yr would correspond. (Note that TWyr/yr always implies annual calorific input to produce power.)
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In this respect it is useful to realize that the fusion reactor of the future, based on the present design, will also be a breeder reactor. Granting the central fusion process of energy release in the plasma to be typically different from the process of nuclear fissioning, there are yet remarkable parallels between fusion and fission breeders in strategic energy planning and reactor operation: lithium in fusion corresponds to U-238 (and Th-232)
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Figure l3 shows the evolution of the primary energy mix by 2030. It is to be taken with a grain of salt, but note the slightly reducing share of gas and the overall fairly constant share of oil together with synthetic fuels, e.g., methanol.
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Together, such and the traditional uses of coal lead to a rather uniform overall share of coal in the primary energy market, with the traditional share decreasing steadily. This decline is offset by a rise in nuclear energy for electricity generation.
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also were exporters in l975, supplying Region I (North America) and Region III l lll 1200 lV Vl 400 1975 REGlON lMPORTS 100 90 700 2030 "HlGH' EXPORTS 1400 lMPORTS EXPORTS 1500 FIGURE l4 Oil trading regions, l975 and 2030 (GWyr/yr)
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By that time a transition to nuclear and solar will be inevitable. This exercise in how supply schemes affect resource allocation demonstrates the usefulness of the scenario approach, by which anticipated TABLE l0 Cumulative Uses of Fossil Fuels, l975 to 2030, High Scenario Total Resource Total Consumed Available (TWyr)
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In short, the insights gained from these calculations make coal a scarce resource after the turn of the century. It figures high in world trade and is likely to be processed by various new technologies, in order to substitute oil as a liquid secondary energy carrier.
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+ NONFOSSlL * 3/2 H20 -» CH3OH + 1/402 + WASTE HEAT ROUTE ENERGY FIGURE l5 Methanol production routes.
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From page 25... ...
5. Hafele, W., Der Beitrag der Sonnenenergie zur Deckung des gegenwartigen und zukunftigen Energiebedarfs, presentation, BMWF/ASSA Symposium on Solar Energy Research on the Occasion of Austria's National Holiday, Vienna, ASSA Information Service (l978)
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