Review of the Draft 2014 Science Mission Directorate Science Plan (2013) / Chapter Skim
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2 Responsiveness to NRC Guidance
2 Responsiveness to NRC Guidance
Pages 9-24
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From page 9... ...
Since the first astronomy survey in the 1960s, the decadal survey process has matured into a robust method for developing a set of goals and objectives for various programs that are based on a community consensus on an achievable suite of science programs in pursuit of high-priority, compelling science questions. The most recent decadal surveys of relevance to this review of SMD's draft Science Plan are as follows: • Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society, published in 2013; 1 • Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022, published in 2011; 2 • New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics, published in 2010; 3 and • Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond, published in 2007.
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From page 10... ...
The solar and space physics community provides a framework for future exploration of our heliosphere through the production of a decadal survey, the most recent of which is Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society. 7 The goals noted in the solar and space physics sections of the draft Science Plan are in reasonable agreement with the four key science goals outlined in the 2013 decadal survey that focus on the following: the origins of the Sun's activity and variations in the space environment; the dynamics and coupling of Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere and their response to solar and terrestrial inputs; the interactions of the Sun with the solar system and the interstellar medium; and fundamental processes within the heliosphere and throughout the universe.
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From page 11... ...
This matter is not discussed in the draft plan nor is that fact that the slowing of the Explorer cadence and delay of the next strategic mission may exceed the trigger points recommended by the decadal survey for a review of the SPP mission in the context of overall program balance. In summary, the Heliophysics section of the draft Science Plan generally follows the priorities and decision rules of the 2013 decadal survey.
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From page 12... ...
Although the DRIVE initiative and Explorer program are discussed in the draft Science Plan, their potential for achieving Heliophysics science goals, even in challenging times, is not emphasized -- something the committee considers to be a lost opportunity to present the compelling nature of the science and its importance to society -- key themes of the decadal survey. As described in the draft Science Plan, there would be insufficient resources available to make balanced progress on the scientific goals laid out by the 2013 solar and space physics decadal survey.
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From page 13... ...
16 The goals noted in the planetary science section of the draft Science Plan map well to the science priorities of 2011 planetary science decadal survey and its crosscutting themes: building new worlds -- understanding solar system beginnings; planetary habitats -- searching for the requirements for life; and workings of solar systems -- revealing planetary processes through time. However, the committee notes that although general alignment with past planning documents is good, the draft Science Plan fails to note that the recommendations of the 2011 decadal survey -- e.g., the initiation of a Europa orbiter mission and a 24-month cadence for the selection of new Discovery missions -- are not being followed due to the fiscal constraints imposed on the Planetary Science Division by NASA's proposed budget for 2014 and beyond.
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From page 14... ...
The draft Science Plan fails to articulate clearly how NASA intends to achieve balance in its planetary science activities. While the 2011 planetary science decadal survey provides recommendations on balance, including decision rules that provide clear guidance for dealing with a reduced budget environment, these recommendations are notably lacking from the draft Science Plan.
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From page 15... ...
Additional stresses result from directed activities and missions that are not included in the 2011 planetary science decadal survey. Recommendation: The Science Plan should explicitly discuss the threats to the implementation of the 2011 planetary science decadal survey recommendations and priorities, demonstrate and describe how the currently proposed plan will support or not support the decadal survey, and present an associated rationale and mitigation plan.
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From page 16... ...
The committee applauds the statements in the draft Science Plan that discusses requirements to "establish a budget for each new mission that matches a probable life-cycle cost defined by engineering studies and independent cost estimates"; "providing realistic budget envelopes and mission concept cost estimates as basic input to NRC committees formulating decadal surveys"; "establishing program lifecycle budget at the 70% confidence level"; "obtaining multiple, independently generated internal and external cost estimates"; and "reviewing projects at multiple, formal key decision points that function as gates to the next stage of development." 23 However, these statements only have value if the managers and leaders at NASA Headquarters and the implementing center take them seriously and apply them effectively. As an example, the very recently conducted Mars 2020 Mission Concept Review yielded a CATE estimate of ~$100 million greater than the stated $1.7 billion cap, before the payload has even been selected.
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From page 17... ...
However, the committee notes that NASA's Astrophysics Division published an implementation plan in 2012 in response to the significant budget cuts at that time. 28 That plan provided a level of detail and specificity with reference to the recommendations of the 2010 astronomy and astrophysics decadal survey that would improve the current draft Science Plan.
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From page 18... ...
Nor does the draft Science Plan indicate how NASA is going to mitigate the risks to the overall direction and recommendations of the 2010 astronomy and astrophysics decadal survey. Recommendation: The Science Plan should discuss in more detail the options for implementing the science goals of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope mission, as well as the status and science capabilities of the European Space Agency's Euclid dark energy mission.
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From page 19... ...
Science Balance The Astrophysics program at NASA as described in the draft Science Plan is not well-balanced at present, either scientifically or in terms of program size. A better scientific balance would mean being able to address more of the questions and goals outlined in the 2010 decadal survey.
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From page 20... ...
involvement and leadership, on the science goals of the 2010 astronomy and astrophysics decadal survey in the current, tight budget climate. EARTH SCIENCES The draft Science Plan explains that the "purpose of NASA's Earth science program is to advance our scientific understanding of Earth as a system and its response to natural and human-induced changes and to improve the ability to predict climate, weather, and natural hazards." 33 Such an undertaking requires coordinated scientific studies of Earth's land surface interior, atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and cryosphere.
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From page 21... ...
Although such a strategy did underlie the core of the 2007 decadal survey recommendations, for the various programmatic and budgetary reasons noted above, the program of planned Earth science missions, as described in the draft Science Plan, falls short of addressing the full spectrum of Earth system science. Given this reality, ESD faces a challenge to prioritize objectives that can be accomplished with limited and unstable resources.
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From page 22... ...
However, four major threads link many of the concerns the committee has expressed concerning SMD's heliophysics, planetary science, astrophysics, and Earth science activities as described in the draft Science Plan. These four threads or common themes are as follows: responsiveness to and implementation of the decadal surveys; scientific balance; the role of small-/medium-size missions, which that are typically led by a PI; and the potential threats posed by the implementation of large missions.
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From page 23... ...
Recommendation: The draft Science Plan should be amended to place more emphasis on the potential of principal-investigator-led missions to achieve important science goals, even in challenging times. Explicit priorities for augmentation of these programs should be stated, and program balance with missions should be addressed via the application of the decision rules from the relevant decadal survey.
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From page 24... ...
2012. Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Midterm Assessment of NASA's Implementation of the Decadal Survey.
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