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TO SUPPLY ENERGY: THE SUN
TO SUPPLY ENERGY: THE SUN
Pages 37-66
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From page 37... ...
economy. The writers of this report believe that if a national decision were made to encourage a rapid transition to renewable resources, solar energy could be far more significant than most energy forecasts indicate.
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From page 38... ...
The assumption that undergirds the scenario chapters, however, is that society is interconnected and evolves systemically. A shift in the direction of husbanding energy resources through energy conservation, an alteration in consumption habits, the development of renewable energy sources such as solar and geothermal -- all these need to be seen in a systemic context.
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From page 39... ...
We further assume that solar energy can meet 75 percent of the total demand for space and water heating and air conditioning in these buildings. Scenario B (Demand and Conservation Panel, 1976)
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Source: Adapted from Demand and Conservation Panel (1976) Industrial Sector Energy used in industrial processes accounted for about one-fourth of primary energy consumed in the United States in 1975.
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: Total 0.17 2 0.26 3 Hot water 0.07 0.12 Direct heat 0.1 0.14 100-177°C: Total 1.34 17 3.25 32 Steam 1.2 2.6 Direct heat 0.14 0.65 >177°C (350°F) : Total 6.35 81 6.53 65 Steam 0.5 0.56 Direct heat 5.85 5.97 99b 10.04 Total 7.86 100 aThese figures include about 80% of all process heat; about 20% is in unexamined small industries with unknown temperature distribution.
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From page 42... ...
Biomass The conversion of biomass to forms useful for meeting United States energy needs is extremely promising but singularly difficult to evaluate. Among the estimates are these from the CONAES Solar Resource Group: municipal wastes (1.7 quads)
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Because of the uncertain state of many of the technologies, we estimate a conservative 3 quads from all biomass sources. Solar Electricity Electricity production using solar technologies is the most uncertain of all.
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The only way in which solar electricity could play a significant role by 2010 is through vigorous and massive federal subsidy or through a policy that would not permit development of other generation sources, as in the event of a nuclear moratorium. Nevertheless, widespread interest in solar electric systems will probably encourage the government to build a number of solar thermal plants, virtually regardless of cost.
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From page 45... ...
However, it is impossible to separate passive solar from overall energy-conserving design of building. d Excluding solar Source: Adapted from Demand and Conservation Panel (1976)
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f> Solar heating and cooling substitutes virtually interchangeably for all energy forms, according to the Demand and Conservation Panel analysis. In scenario A essentially all of the energy requirements for heating, cooling, and hot water could be replaced by solar (14.6 quads)
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From page 47... ...
However, except possibly for domestic and commercial water heating, market saturation is not likely to occur before 2010. Table 8 Projected growth for solar technologies Application Energy produced in quads per year Growth per year (percent)
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Some solar electric capacity will, however, surely be installed if we are vigorous about developing solar energy. Nevertheless, in contrast with solar heating and cooling and solar process heat, solar electric generation cannot now be considered economically feasible.
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From page 49... ...
of CONAES, under the assumption that major research and development programs are successful, estimated that by 2010 costs for delivered solar heat and delivered solar air conditioning (Table 9) will be comparable to or below conventional fuel Table 9 Delivered solar energy costs in the year 2010 Delivered energy Cost in dollars per million Btu Domestic water heat 4.40 Passive space heat 4.60 Active space heat 7.30 Residential air conditioning 19.60 (6.1)
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, include only costs related to supplying the energy, Table 10 Energy cost assumptions under Demand and Conservation Panel scenario B, in dollars per million Btua Energy source Year 2010 1975 Distillate 6.74 2. 81 Utility residual 4.85 2.
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An optimistic busbar cost estimate for solar electricity, including required storage systems, is about $0.045/kWh. This is about $0.15/kWh greater than current busbar cost estimates for coalor nuclear-produced electricity.
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Table 11 Capital cost of energy supply and conservation technologies Technology Capital cost (thousands of dollars per barrel of oil equivalent per day) Traditional direct fuel technologies, 1950-1970 2-3 Imported oil or domestic coal, 1970s 2-3 Frontier oil and gas, 1980s 10-25 Coal synthetics and exotic hydrocarbons, 1980s 20-40 Central coal-electric with scrubbers, 1980s 170 Light water reactor, mid-1980s 200-300 Fluidized-bed gas turbine/district heating/heat pumps, early 1980s 30° Wind-electric 200 Retrofitted 100% solar space heat, mid 1980s 50-70° Bioconversion of agricultural/forestry residues, 1980s 13-20 Pyrolysis of municipal wastes, late 1970s 30 Improved end-use efficiency Q New commercial buildings 0-3 Common industrial/architectural leak-plugging 0-5 /•» Most industrial/architectural heat-recovery systems 5-15 CDifficult, extremely thorough building retrofits 25 a!
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From page 53... ...
A national decision to produce 10 percent of this electricity using solar power -- which would mean an installed solar capacity equivalent to 38 conventional plants operating at a 60-percent load factor, would carry with it an additional cost of just $16 per person per year. An even more interesting way to look at an extra cost of solar energy of $0.015/kWh is as an offset to oil imports.
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From page 54... ...
The issue of decentralized solar power is symbolic of a greater issue: the preservation of liberty and equity by maintaining some independence from the "big system." As the theorists of free-enterprise democracy considered the principle of control and ownership of property essential to liberty, so the principle of control over indispensable energy supply is now being put forth as a precondition of liberty. The Symposium on Future Strategies for Energy Development held at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, October 20-21, 1976, brought into sharp focus many of the issues involved in contrasting dispersed technologies with concentrated ones.
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From page 55... ...
For example, resistive heaters and electric heat pumps are not very adaptable, so an allelectric house is hard to heat except with electricity from some source. A domestic or district heating system based on circulating hot water, however, can use virtually any heat source at any scale without significant change to the domestic plumbing, adapting to as wide a range as solar collectors, solar/heat-pump hybrids, and combined-heat-andpower district stations.
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From page 56... ...
. The variations possible are exhibited in the broad range of estimates of solar impacts compiled by the CONAES Solar Resource Group (National Research Council, 1979)
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From page 57... ...
The CONAES Demand and Conservation Panel (1976) , working in conjunction with the Solar Resource Group, approached the problem by assuming that solar systems will penetrate the market gradually once they become competitive.
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From page 59... ...
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From page 60... ...
Finally, the United States government's approach has been to emphasize solar electricity rather than other forms of solar energy. The President's budget to Congress for fiscal 1977 included $102 million for solar electric research out of a total request of $160 million for solar energy.
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tfl tr. O O Saving from Solar Delivered Cost of Heat from Distillate Fuel Oil I 1980 1990 2000 YEAR 2010 Figure 6 Estimated cost impact of solar technology on residential space heating
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"Super Technical Fix" "Soft Sources" ! i Wind " J Feedstocks Transport Fluids 1 Liqwood (fuel alcohols from forestry)
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On the face of it, a national decision to "go solar" seems unlikely. There is, however, at least one precedent from the recent past in which the direction of government action was decisively reoriented.
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We assume that the American people and the government officials representing them will respond pragmatically to the present challenge. The combination of public opinion and shifting priorities on renewable forms of energy in government energy policies could stimulate action in the following ways: the sharp rise in energy prices could encourage investment in solar energy earlier than might be expected on economic grounds; the specter of energy shortages could encourage a rapid transition to renewable resources; governmental incentives, such as tax deductions, could encourage renewable technologies; and changes in values that emphasize scarcity, thrift, simplicity, or survival could discourage continuing use of conventional energy forms, despite their advantageous costs, for purposes such as generating electricity.
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From page 65... ...
1975. Evaluation of New Energy Sources for Process Heat.
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From page 66... ...
1976. A National Plan for Energy Research, Development and Demonstration: Creating Energy Choices for the Future.
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