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A HIGH-ENERGY-PRODUCTIVITY SOCIETY: CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCIES
A HIGH-ENERGY-PRODUCTIVITY SOCIETY: CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCIES
Pages 67-101
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From page 67... ...
That is, it will continue to be fundamentally a market economy with considerable individual freedom in the disposition of personal income. This scenario assumes that higher energy costs will become the primary impetus for society to choose behavioral patterns and technologies that result in a 72-quad national energy economy.
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From page 68... ...
Because of this widely held belief, the following question is explored: Can a plausible scenario for 2010 be envisioned for which explicitly assumed behavioral and technological changes result in reduced energy consumption and increased per-capita income? To approach this question, a discussion of past and present data on consumer expenditures is in order (Bureau of the Census, 1975a, 1975b; Bureau of Economic Analysis, 1976; Kravis et al., 1975)
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From page 69... ...
This change is attributed primarily to increased incomes, which led to purchases of single family homes in the suburbs, increasing travel requirements for work, shopping, and schooling; the increase in income also permitted more travel for recreation. In terms of energy intensities, the picture since World War II is mixed.
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From page 70... ...
(Note that these intensity estimates are historically based and do not reflect potential energy savings from behavioral or technological changes.) Given the above assumptions regarding population, GNP, and energyprice increases, what set of consumer responses might be undertaken to change the overall consumption pattern so as to maintain current levels of energy use until the year 2010?
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From page 71... ...
the percentage of total trips, the percentage of total miles driven, the average trip length, the load factor (persons per vehicle) , the fuel economy relative to a warmed-up vehicle, and the percentage of total gasoline consumed.
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From page 72... ...
The Austin-Bellman relative fuel economy results generally hold for all kinds and sizes of vehicles. (These results do not hold for diesel automobiles, which perform better than conventional cars in congested or slow traffic relative to fully warmed-up highway use, or for electric vehicles, which require no warming up and do not idle, thus eliminating the major losses of fuel in shorter, intra-city trips.
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From page 73... ...
We do not know the gasoline price required to bring about the changes discussed, nor can we predict how cities might be designed to reduce the need for travel except to say that more compact cities decrease the need for travel, especially travel to work. AN ENERGY-CONSUMPTION SCENARIO FOR 2010 The two previous sections presented estimates of the energy-saving potential from a variety of behavioral and technological changes.
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From page 74... ...
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From page 75... ...
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From page 76... ...
Table 19 Energy savings in water heating through use of solar energy Action Energy saved, in percent Install solar water heaters 50 Reduce temperature to 120° F and reduce use to 40 gallons per day 30 Combine two actions above 65 •a Based on calculations made at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
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From page 77... ...
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From page 78... ...
Using 13.7- Using 25- Using 35mpg car mpg car mpg car Work Increase load factor in commute to 2 17.0 16.4 24.7 27.2 Decrease business miles 20% 1.6 1.4 4.0 4.9 Family business -- 50% reduction in trips 7.8 11.8 16.7 18.4 Civic, education, religious 0 0 2.6 3.5 Social Vacation0 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.2 Visitsd 0 0 5.2 7.0 Pleasure 1.6 1.3 1.9 2.1 Otherd 5.3 5.8 9.2 10.7 Total savings 33.8 37.1 65.2 75.0 5% longer to account for pick-up and drop-off ^Average number of trips per day reduced by half; average distance per trip increased by 20% °Vacation is 20% closer to home or eliminated Shorter trips walked or eliminated; average trip length increased
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From page 79... ...
Energy savings in the transportation sector are assumed to result from increased energy prices in the case of the behavioral changes and from higher efficiency standards in the case of the technological changes. The standards and/or technological changes may also arise from higher energy prices.
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From page 80... ...
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From page 81... ...
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From page 82... ...
This amount of raw energy, measured at the point of extraction, would otherwise have to be provided by nonrenewable resources to maintain the comfort levels assumed. The solar-input equivalent was calculated on the basis of the assumed savings factors for passive solar houses and solar water heaters, on the per-capita energy consumption per residential unit for the end uses affected (space heating and cooling and water heating)
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From page 83... ...
However, the estimates in Table 23 of overall energy consumption are affected by the GNP growth-rate assumption as well as by the estimates of saturation and savings potential by sector. For example, the assumed growth rate of overall industrial output, and accordingly the growth rates of the particular industrial sectors as delineated, enter the calculations directly as scaling factors of percapita energy consumption in industry.
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From page 84... ...
Footnotes to Table 22 described a number of energy-conserving measures and their associated energy savings. The question now arises about what might induce producers and consumers to adopt these measures.
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From page 85... ...
First, there is a variety of policies and other mechanisms by which energy-conservation measures could be implemented. Second, both positive and negative impacts are likely to be associated with their adoption; therefore it is advisable to anticipate as many impacts as possible to mitigate the unintended consequences.
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From page 88... ...
The potential saving for new plus replacement units is estimated to be 72 percent. The saving potential is applied to 53.87 million units (see Table 26)
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From page 89... ...
Table 26 Composition of residential units, in millions Type 1976 2010 Old Replacement3 New Total Single family 48.3 33.9 14.4 15.0 63.3 Multi-family 21.5 15.1 6.3 15.0 36.4 Mobile home 3.0 2.1 0.9 2.3 5.3 Total 72.8 21.6 32.3 105.0 aAssumes that existing st Source: Adapted from : at 1 percent per year ervation Panel (1976)
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From page 90... ...
5. The 67-percent saving potential results in 0.01 quad of energy consumed per million people; the 72-percent saving potential for new plus replacement units results in energy consumption of 0.0096 quad per million people.
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From page 91... ...
10. Energy consumption for conventional water heaters is calculated with a 30-percent saving potential as follows: 1.87 quads/72.8 residential units in 1976 = 0.0256 quad per million units x 70 percent consumption = 0.0179 quad per million units x 72.67 (millions of existing plus 40 percent of new and replacement units)
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From page 92... ...
, increasing the average trip length and use of more-efficient ground transportation for shorter trips (14 percent) , and increasing engine efficiency (10 percent)
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From page 93... ...
The calculation is based on Table 3, "Freight Cargo Ton Miles per Year per Person by Function and Vehicle," from a preliminary draft of "Transportation Energy, Conservation and Demand Options to 2010," Demand and Conservation Panel (1976)
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From page 94... ...
These factors are included in the estimates of energy savings.
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From page 95... ...
Energy-consuming trends are: (g) Environmental controls reduce energy efficiency.
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From page 96... ...
The plastic is used as a substitute for steel to reduce weight and thus conserve fuel. If a net energy saving is Achieved, this substitution has an obvious benefit.
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From page 97... ...
(3) Use hot-metal charges in electric steel operation to reduce electric energy input by 15-20 percent.
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From page 98... ...
36. It is assumed that electricity use scales with industrial output, which is adjusted downward by 10 percent per unit of output for assumed energy conservation induced by higher energy prices.
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From page 99... ...
This is consistent with the Btu/production unit calculations for scenario A of the Industry Resource Group's report to the Demand and Conservation Panel, in which real energy prices are assumed to quadruple. (The report is available in the CONAES public file.)
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From page 100... ...
1975. Passenger Car Fuel Economy as Influenced by Trip Length.
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From page 101... ...
1976. Residential Energy Savings Through Modified Control of Space-Conditioning Equipment.
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