STAR 21 Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century (1992) / Chapter Skim
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3 Technology Assessments and Forecasts
3 Technology Assessments and Forecasts
Pages 103-191
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From page 103... ...
These groups assessed the state of the art and forecast the technology that was likely to be available within 10 to 15 years, so it could be included in Army systems by 2020. All advanced technologies with major Army applications were divided into the following eight technology groups: Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Robotics; Electronics and Sensors; · Optics, Photonics, and Directed Energy; · Biotechnology and Biochemistry; · Advanced Materials; · Propulsion and Power; · Advanced Manufacturing; and · Environmental and Atmospheric Sciences.
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From page 104... ...
In addition, a number of narrower discipline-specific trends within specific technology areas will have important consequences for future Army applications. In many cases these trends, which are summarized here, tie in with one or more of the major trends.
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From page 105... ...
For example, computer modeling will make possible detailed studies of how physical signals, such as light, radar, or sound, propagate in inhomogeneous media, such as the lower atmosphere or through forest canopies. In chemical research, the potential energy surface that characterizes a chemical reaction is a multidimensional mathematical function, which can be modeled and visualized for the researcher.
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From page 106... ...
As the technology for quantum-based devices becomes available, subsequent steps will be to integrate them into "molecular" integrated circuits, then into monolithic integrated circuits (wafer-scale integration) , which could conceivably have a trillion "devices" on a chip the size of a dime.
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From page 107... ...
Modern combat vehicles, unmanned air vehicles carrying multiple smart sensors, and a theater air/missile defense system are all examples. At present, the design of such systems is largely a process of muddling through to an adequate result rather than a rational procedure derived from a testable theory.
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From page 108... ...
Among the potential applications are new battle gear for the soldier made from lighter and stronger fabrics, broad-spectrum vaccines and prophylactic medicines, sensors and diagnostic devices based on molecular recognition properties, and miniature motors and power supplies based on biological energy transduction mechanisms. Trend 1 0: Applying Principles of Biological Information Processing Biological systems receive, store, duplicate, respond to, and transmit information.
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From page 109... ...
Discipline-Specific Trends In electronics, optics, and photonics, the directions for advanced sensor technology include conformal sensors and multispectral sensors, with onboard processors for data fusion and for mission-specific processing such as automatic target recognition. Future Army systems will use an integrated mixture of electronic, photonic, and acoustic devices to process both analog and digital output from a range of sensors gathering electromagnetic, acoustic, and magnetic signals (Figure 3-2~.
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From page 110... ...
(c) When a detector molecule combines with a target molecule, a unique physical/chemical change occurs in the detector-target complex.
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From page 111... ...
Future infrared focal plane arrays will combine even more sophisticated image processing in a miniature sensor device. (Courtesy Texas Instruments Incorporated.
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From page 112... ...
A key addition to existing terrain data capabilities will be a nearreal-time system to analyze and map changes in terrain surface conditions and trafficability. Such a system would use sensor data on rainfall, soil moisture monitors, and computer modeling of soil properties based on hydrologic and atmospheric conditions.
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From page 113... ...
· Technologies to monitor are areas in which the Technology Group thought that nonmilitary R&D would lead the way and the Army could profitably use the results without funding research itself. These areas include machine learning and neural nets, data base management systems, ultra-high-performance serial and parallel computing, planning, manipulator design and control, knowledge-based systems, and natural language and speech.
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From page 115... ...
Civilian developments can accelerate the introduction of technology into Army applications and reduce costs. Opinions vary on how much of the computer and systems hardware produced for civilian markets is too fragile for direct Army use.
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From page 116... ...
116 STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE ARMY OF THE 21ST CENTURY accurately reflect what the designer wanted it to? Is the high-level description correctly translated into an acceptable implementation?
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From page 117... ...
Often, the needed representations do not exist yet. The Technology Group envisions a battle control language that will give commanders control of computational power analogous to the control that current spreadsheet packages give users to "program" their own calculations and tables.
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From page 118... ...
that is far above the hardware level. This level of interaction will enable more powerful application programs for sensor fusion, situation assessment, operations planning, and sophisticated modeling.
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From page 119... ...
In the area of human factors, technological advances will occur in visual display techniques, force-feedback controls, information presentation optimized for low data transmission rate, and workload optimization for control of multiple systems by a single operator. Heads-up displays, which project an image from a lipstick-size tube onto eyeglasses, are just appearing as commercial products.
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From page 120... ...
To defeat enemy attempts at deception, battlefield robots will have to integrate a wide variety of sensor information. The Army of 2020 will have vast requirements for signal processing from a single sensor, sensor fusion, and sensor integration.
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From page 121... ...
Large robot air vehicles, whether autonomous (e.g. cruise missiles)
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From page 122... ...
Parallel architectures seem to be the only promising route for continuing the past rate of growth in computing power. Whether the conventional supercomputer design, which is based on vectorization of the computational problem, or radical alternatives such as massively parallel architectures is optimal appears at present to depend on a case-by-case fit of the problem to be solved, the software program that solves it, and the machine architecture.
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From page 123... ...
It may find use in "pretranslation" systems or in watchdog systems that scan large volumes of material for items to be brought to an operator's attention. ELECTRONICS AND SENSORS TFA Scope The Technology Group on Electronics and Sensors assessed the following areas of technology: · Electronic devices include advances in monolithic microwave integrated circuits, superconductive electronics, vacuum micro devices, computer memories, application-specific integrated circuits, analogto-digital converters, digital signal processing microcomputer chips, and wafer-scale technology.
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From page 124... ...
· Sensor systems include UAV detection radar for surveillance of moving ground targets, airborne detection and recognition radars for stationary targets, acoustic array sensors, magnetic sensors, air defense radars, and space-based surveillance and target recognition radars. Technology Findings The findings reported in the Electronics and Sensors TEA include general findings, those specific to the technology areas specified above, and summary findings on three high-impact electronic technologies.
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From page 125... ...
Superconducting thin films enable major performance advances in a variety of microwave, radio frequency, and digital logic applications. Monolithic microwave integrated circuits (MMICs)
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From page 126... ...
They can be used to develop radar and communications systems at frequencies and power levels not attainable with current solid state technology. They also could replace the traveling wave tubes now used, with substantial reductions in the size, weight, and power consumption of the system.
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From page 127... ...
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS AND FORECASTS 1 000 100 10 an CC 0.1 0.01 _ I I I I I _ DYNAMIC MEMORIES (50 ns)
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From page 128... ...
As sensor technology expands, either in bandwidth (as in radars) or focal plane size (for optoelectronic systems)
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From page 129... ...
In ten years GaAs technology will enable 100-MIPS DSP microcomputers. Fiber optics will provide gigabit interprocessor communications.
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From page 130... ...
The potential advantages of neural networks include high-speed processing through parallelism, robustness to individual element failures, and compact hardware implementation of entire networks as VLSI chips. Current realizations of neural nets are almost entirely in the form of simulations on a standard digital computer.
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From page 131... ...
a, 10 . _ En Ct' 3 o 10 — LL 10 2 1 o 1 10 6 ~ = 104 10 5 1 990 1 995 Years 2000 , , ~ 3 r 10 _ 10 10 2 131 FIGURE 3-10 Projection for numerical computing power (1 MFLOPS = 1 million floating point operations per second)
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From page 132... ...
Their advantages of high-speed processing by rugged, compact hardware with little dependence on software would be significant for such applications as brilliant weapons, autonomous systems (UAVs and UGVs) , automatic processing of sensor data, image processing, and adaptive signal processing and control.
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From page 133... ...
The underlying technologies for these advances will include neural nets, statistical pattern recognition, and model-based vision. UANI-based radars could also be used for low-altitude air defense, overcoming the difficulties with terrain and foliage masking that hamper ground-based air defense systems.
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From page 134... ...
The Technology Group summarized the performance parameters and technology requirements for space-based radar platforms for surveillance and target recognition. This application would require lightweight phased array radar antennas.
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From page 135... ...
The electronics technologies that are potential candidates for terahertz performance include devices based on compound semiconductors (e.g., GaAs and InP) , superconductive devices, vacuum microdevices, and optoelectronic devices.
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From page 136... ...
Optoelectronic technology couples electronic data-processing elements with optical elements. This area includes fiber optics, diode laser arrays, optoelectronic integrated circuits, optical neural networks, acousto-optical signal processing, and various other technologies that process optically transmitted information.
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From page 137... ...
Solid state laser technology is being extended to an average power of several hundred watts, which will enable laser radars to have very long ranges (depending on the wavelength and atmospheric attenuation)
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From page 138... ...
By operating in two bands simultaneously, passive IRST can make stealthy or camouflaged air vehicles more detectable. A multidomain sensor system with laser radar and sensor fusion at either the pixel level or the image level will be part of an automatic target recognition system for detecting and classifying aircraft and missile threats on the tactical battlefield.
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From page 139... ...
Smart focal planes are another concept for the rapid processing of data from sensor optics (Figure 3-14~. An array of small-area detectors will share space on the focal plane with processing circuitry.
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From page 140... ...
For infrared scanners, focal plane arrays of detectors based on Schot~ky-barrier materials can improve the photon collection efficiency of the entire sensor by five orders of magnitude, compared with conventional infrared scanners. Although Schottky-barrier materials have a lower quantum efficiency than other solid state detectors, a focal plane array in a staring format compensates for that disadvantage by using a large number of detectors.
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From page 141... ...
>I , 4.,~ a, ~~ ~ nets \ \~tifunctional IR Focal Plane Arrays/ Smart Helmet // FIGURE 3-15 Smart sensor (infrared focal plane array) with Army applications for smart helmet.
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From page 142... ...
Military applications of fiber optics currently provide rapidly deployable links over distances from tens of meters to kilometers. Time-division multiplexing is used, which limits the bandwidth and compromises the robustness and flexibility of the network.
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From page 143... ...
At present, designs with longitudinal pumping give the highest efficiencies, but transverse pumping of solid state laser slabs by two-dimensional diode laser arrays is better suited for higher power levels, albeit at modest efficiencies. For example, the projected capability of a neodymium laser demonstrator, due by 1993, is 300-W average power, about 10 percent efficiency, and a lifetime of greater than 109 shots.
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From page 144... ...
In terms of combined speed, low power, and high spatial density, optoelectronic arrays based on III-V semiconductors will be difficult to surpass in the long term. Neural networks constitute another information-processing technology in which photonics will play an increasing role.
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From page 145... ...
In the long term, the Technology Group forecasts that optical neural networks will be used for real-time automatic target recognition based on multidomain sensor inputs, for speech understanding (i.e., word and pattern recognition) , and for complex .
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From page 146... ...
Adaptive optics will become an essential part of future systems; they will substantially increase the operating range and improve the resolution of laser systems. For military applications, adaptive optics can improve performance of many optoelectronic systems, including antisensor lasers, passive battlefield imaging, active or passive space object imaging, auto-tracking, and optical jammers.
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From page 147... ...
One important near-term Army application for binary optics is to correct chromatic aberration in infrared imaging systems. Binary optics also has the potential to simplify the production of optical systems for military applications.
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From page 148... ...
Peak power levels can be as high as several gigawatts, with energies per pulse greater than 200 I A newer technology uses a solid state switch to produce a high-power wideband radio frequency beam (also called a video pulse)
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From page 149... ...
Contributing technologies include molecular and cellular manipulation; enzyme definition, design, and production; and microbial techniques for growth and fermentation. The technologies assessed by this Group were divided into the following six categories: · Gene technologies include the methods to "touch the genome" and modify it.
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From page 150... ...
In some areas of direct interest to Army applications, foreign biotechnology is ahead of U.S. academic and nonmedical private sector efforts.
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From page 151... ...
. For the kinds of advanced capabilities needed by the future Army, biotechnology offers important advantages when compared with traditionally engineered and manufactured systems: · Biological systems perform complex, repetitive syntheses with few side products and few errors, compared with traditional chemical production methods.
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From page 152... ...
Biomolecular Engineering Our current ability to relate the structure of biomolecules to their function is limited for all but the smallest of these molecules. There
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From page 153... ...
, biomolecular engineering will be applicable to five: deployable bioproduction of military supplies, biosensor systems, novel materials, extended human performance, and antimateriel products. Bioproduction Technologies The bioproduction techniques and resources already available include bioreactors; cell culture and fermentation techniques; cell growth media and factors; established cell lines for mammalian, insect, bacterial, yeast, and algal cells; cell harvesting and processing techniques; chemical coupling techniques and processes for immobilizing (fixing)
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From page 154... ...
Specific triggering mechanisms for release of the active substance will be developed, such as triggers by pH, ionic strength, specific receptor/ligand binding, or specific frequencies of electromagnetic radiation. Of the high-payoff opportunities for biotechnology, targeted delivery systems could play a role in enhanced immunocompetence, novel materials, in-field medical diagnosis and treatment, and antimateriel products.
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From page 155... ...
Bioelectronics refers to the use of biomolecules or biosensor systems within an electronic data-processing system for example, a "microchip" integrated circuit that incorporates biosensor elements into a computer memory "biochip." The development of this technology depends not only on biocoupling advances but also on biomolecular elements with a binary signal response. As with biomolecular engineering, to reap the potential of biocoupling technology will require multidisciplinary teams competent in many specialties, including molecular genetics, receptor physiology, and pharmacology; physical chemistry of macromolecules; the physics and chemistry of signal trapping and recognition; engineering adaptation of unit-event signals into systems with integrated outputs; and engineering to adapt the environment required by the biosensor to the sampled environment.
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From page 156... ...
The Technology Group expects that progress in this area will depend on the development of high-density neural nets with advanced artificial intelligence capabilities and on advances in biocoupling. Highest-Payoff Opportunities The Biotechnology and Biochemistry Technology Group identified seven areas of biotechnological application as having the highest payoff for meeting long-term Army needs.
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From page 157... ...
Near-term Army investments in gene technologies and biomolecular engineering could result by 2002 in laboratory-scale expression of a selected nonpetroleum-based, oxygen-rich fuel. Investment in bioproduction technology beginning in 2005 could result in deployable bioproduction by 2020.
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From page 158... ...
Biomolecular Engineering 3. Gene Technologies Non-Biotech Support Technologies Fiber Optics Optical Processing · Instrumentation ..
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From page 159... ...
The key products identified by the Technology Group were rapid, specific diagnosis of symptoms, to be fielded around 2020, and an even longer-term system that would include countermeasure selection and its bioproduction. Immediate Army investments would be needed in gene technologies and biomolecular engineering.
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From page 160... ...
The combined benefits of resin matrix composites, advanced ceramics, and light metals will make possible a new breed of ground vehicles. They will be lighter, less costly, and transportable by air, while also being hardened against ballistic attack and more compatible with techniques for low observability.
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From page 161... ...
· Nonlinear models for dynamic systems will lead to major advances in the design of materials for ballistic protection. Resin Matrix Composites Recent major breakthroughs in processing will significantly reduce the cost of resin-based organic composites.
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From page 162... ...
Thermoplastic matrices are tougher than thermoses matrices. In the composite material, the choice of reinforcement further affects toughness The gap between the toughness of metal and that of organic matrix composites is decreasing; further research may yield organic composites Ash the toughness characteristic of metals.
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From page 163... ...
The stability at high temperature of organic composites has also been improving. Molecular engineering of the polymer backbone has raised the continuous-use temperature from 175°C for epoxy to more than 400° for ladder polymers consisting of joined carbocyclic or heterocyclic rings (Figure 3-19~.
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From page 164... ...
For example, vibrational damping characteristics of a composite beam can be varied by embedding a dispersed fluid that changes in viscosity in response to an electric current passing through embedded conducting fibers. Another potential use for active smart composites is in gas turbine engines, where properties of the compressor section could be modified to correct for wear, damage, or mission requirements.
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From page 165... ...
This technology will affect military applications such as armor, power and propulsion, gun barrels, missile guidance, and the packaging of electronic systems. Cellular ceramics are porous rather than monolithic; they have a foamlike structure.
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From page 166... ...
Fiberreinforced ceramics will find military applications in armor, propulsion and power, metal-cutting and metal-forming tools, gun barrel technology, and spacecraft structures. Diamond and diamondlike coatings are thin films deposited on a bulk substrate.
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From page 167... ...
Similarly, new lighter intermetallics will eventually replace heavier nickel or cobalt-based alloys. Advances in knowledge of composites based on steel and alumi num matrices will benefit the entire area of metal matrix composites.
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From page 168... ...
Another advantage of metal matrix composites is their potential for advanced forming techniques, such as superplastic forming. The Technology Group forecasts applications of these composites in lightweight armor, missile components, rotating structures, gun barrels, and electrically powered guns.
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From page 169... ...
Within 20 years, processing technology will allow smaller particle size and better control of the interaction between energetic material and the matrix of binder and plasticizers. In the processing of energetic materials, biotechnology is likely to become important not only for the biodegradation of hazardous waste products but also for the synthesis of energetic molecules.
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From page 170... ...
Four promising laser types currently under investigation for this purpose are chemical lasers, free-electron lasers, ionic solid state lasers, and coherent diode laser arrays. Potential laser applications include ground-based ballistic missile and antisatellite defense, air defense, antisensor, and antipersonnel use.
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From page 171... ...
For weapon applications, ionic solid state lasers must be scaled well beyond their current performance levels. The Technology Group forecasts improvements to possibly 30 percent efficiency and drastic cost reduction through pumping with diode laser arrays.
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From page 172... ...
The Air Force is currently conducting research on coherent diode laser arrays. The Technology Group recommends that the Army not only monitor the Air Force's projects but also pursue complementary work.
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From page 173... ...
The advanced electronics technology of the modern battlefield- advanced sensors, smart weapons, and autonomous systems typically use radio frequency, microwave, or millimeter-wave signals ranging from 100 MHz to 300 GHz. The primary tactical significance of high-power electromagnetic pulse energy beams that operate in this same region lies in their potential to damage the electronics necessary for hostile sensors and systems to function.
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From page 174... ...
The Technology Group forecasts that gyrotron technology will produce megawatt-level continuous-wave power by about 1995, but it will be at fixed frequencies (Figure 3-22~. In the same time frame, FEL technology will provide 1-MOO power levels with limited tuning capability and pulse rate.
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From page 175... ...
The Army's future missile propulsion technology must be adequate for new generations of smart-to-brilliant missiles. To achieve the range variation, minimum flyout times, targeting flexibility, and accuracy required for both offensive and defensive battle zone missions, these missiles must be capable of extremes of energy management and maneuverability.
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From page 176... ...
Substantial decreases in specific fuel consumption and increases in thrust per unit airflow are expected for future gas turbines. For aircraft propulsion, foreseeable developments in gas turbines offer the potential to double current performance by increasing the
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From page 178... ...
Two of these general concepts, the Integrated Propulsion System (IPS) and hybrid-electric propulsion systems, received special consideration as aspects of the Group's overall high-leverage technology for surface mobility: a system designed under an IPS approach, having an advanced diesel or gas turbine engine and either all-electric or hybrid-electric power distribution.
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From page 179... ...
individually driven wheels or track drive sprockets, eliminating complex transmission/differential drive trains; and (3) a common power distribution system for vehicle drive, electrically powered weapon systems (such as an electrically energized hypervelocity gun)
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From page 180... ...
For example, a hybrid electric-drive propulsion system offers major gains in total battle zone effectiveness, gains that will be enhanced by electrical energy storage systems with far higher electrical power density than current technology. Two such systems that offer particular promise are advanced batteries (perhaps a fivefold improvement over lead-acid batteries)
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From page 181... ...
Battle Zone Electric Power The future Army will require electrical power in the battle zone at levels from tens of watts for surveillance and communication to hundreds of megawatts for directed energy weapons. Mobility will be essential.
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From page 182... ...
, generators in this class are half prime power unit and half power conditioning unit. For the prime power unit, the technologies with the most promise for the Army were judged to be gas turbine engines (for energy production)
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From page 183... ...
Rechargeable (secondary) batteries capable of a large number of discharge/recharge cycles probably will play a far greater role in the future Army than they have in the past.
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From page 184... ...
Specifically, the Group reviewed the following topics: · Key technologies include intelligent processing equipment, microfabrication and nanofabrication, flexible computer-integrated manufacturing, and systems management. · Applications important to the Army include distributed and forward production facilities, rapid reaction to operational requirements, and parts copying.
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From page 185... ...
enable civilian specifications and quality standards high enough that separate military specifications are not necessary (which implies that civilian production facilities can be used for military production)
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From page 186... ...
applies information systems technology to the levels of manufacturing integration above the level of intelligent processing equipment, which applies information control to a single process or workstation. A group of workstations, constituting a factory cell, can be organized around a set of related tasks or functions.
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From page 187... ...
The STAR Committee suggests that long-term agreements be sought to ensure the availability for emergency military use of production facilities in the United States that are foreign owned or controlled.
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From page 188... ...
· Weather-related technologies include atmospheric sensing, weather modeling and forecasting, modeling of atmospheric transport and diffusion phenomena, and weather modification. Technology Findings General Findings Military operations depend on information about terrain and weather at both large and small scales.
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From page 189... ...
The enabling technology includes high-capacity optoelectronic storage media, a data base structure for storing threedimensional data, software and hardware for rapid processing of large data sets, high-speed broadband communications links, multicolor map production from digitized data, microprocessor workstations as the local nodes in this terrain information network, and artificial intelligence to automate reasoning about the interaction of terrain features and other environmental factors, including the weather.7 In terrain sensing technology, a major breakthrough would be the direct recording of three-dimens~onal terrain data. An interim evolution is platform-based processing of raw sensor data.
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From page 190... ...
Technology for real-time terrain analysis will use computer modeling for which input data from the terrain data base are supplemented with current data from weather and soil sensors. Technological advances will be required in high-resolution terrain sensors, direct observation, and the processing of raw sensor data.
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From page 191... ...
Breakthroughs in methods for solving nonlinear stochastic and probability equations for physical, chemical, and meteorological phenomena will allow more realistic modeling of transport and diffusion processes. The projected increase in computing power will also make such modeling more readily available to field commanders.
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