Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty A Proceedings (1991) / Chapter Skim
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8. Hydrologic Implications of Climate Uncertainty in the Western United States
8. Hydrologic Implications of Climate Uncertainty in the Western United States
Pages 148-157
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From page 148... ...
There is a myriad of paths by which a molecule of water can transit about the globe, and the likelihood of it doing so in a cyclic manner is infinitesimally small. Thus, the simplified concept of a hydrologic cycle offers little insight into the hydrologic impacts of potential climate change.
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From page 149... ...
demonstrated a positive correlation between ENSO events and precipitation magnitudes over much of the Colorado River basin. This correlation implies that an energy exchange between the atmosphere and the Pacific Ocean can alter the probabilities of precipitation in the western United States during ENSO events.
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For example, a common GCM representation of the land surface within a grid is that of a uniform soil of constant depth, the so-called bucket model, from which runoff is generated when the soil is saturated and precipitation exceeds evapotranspiration during any time step of computation. Runoff so defined is quite a different phenomenon from that recognized under the same name in hydrology.
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From page 152... ...
Extrapolations required to estimate future climate changes would undoubtedly degrade the resulting information below these limits. Thus, there may be some useful hydrologic information in GCMs, but our current ability to extract it is very limited.
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From page 153... ...
Stockton (1975) has estimated the annual runoff of the upper Colorado River basin for the period 1520 to 1961 using dendrochronology and has found the mean annual runoff for this period to be approximately
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At this time, the plausibility of each scenario can only be determined subjectively, because the probability of any climate scenario cannot yet be determined. Thus, today's state of understanding concerning the hydrologic implications of climate change is best characterized as one of uncertainty in which the level of uncertainty itself is uncertain.
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TABLE 8.1 Sensitivity of runoff to climate change for the Animas River at Durango, Colorado. Period Annual Average January June Runoff (thousands of acre-feet)
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A Tirpak, eds., Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States.
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From page 157... ...
1983. Effects of carbon dioxide-induced climate change on water supplies in the western United States.
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