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9 Possible Scenarios for U.S.-Japan Alliances and Their Implications for the United States
Pages 67-73

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From page 67...
... Moreover, an increase in venture capital and long-term corporate investments appears doubtful, and although access to Japanese and Asian markets may be improving slowly, it is still marked by "buy local" practices 67
From page 68...
... industry productivity Increased venture capital and long-term corporate investments Better access to Japanese and Asian markets Massive global marketing effort by U.S. companies Design-intensive technologies increase in value Success of emerging global standards (ACE, SPARC, etc.)
From page 69...
... Asian alliances Condition Stable dollar Stable interest rates Increased manufacturing investments and U.S. industry productivity Stable venture capital and long-term corporate investments Better access to Japanese and Asian markets Increased global marketing efforts by U.S.
From page 70...
... Asian alliances Condition Strong dollar Rising interest rates Declining manufacturing investments and lower U.S. productivity Declining venture capital and corporate investments Poor access to Japanese and Asian markets Ineffectual global marketing efforts by U.S.
From page 71...
... productivity setbacks Marked falloff of venture capital and corporate investments Diminished access to Japanese and Asian markets Woeful global marketing efforts by U.S. companies Design-intensive technologies lost through alliances Japan and Asia leverage global standards (ACE, SPARC, etc.)
From page 72...
... semiconductor industry today stands closest to the second scenario, an equilibrium model. Whether American companies can continue to forestall structural decline following the current recession is open to doubt.
From page 73...
... semiconductor industry resurgence were tempered by questions as to whether the real trend was toward "stalemate," or "stabilization" with neither Japanese nor American producers gaining much ground.37 In sum, unless fundamental changes are made in the way business is done, the U.S. semiconductor industry seems likely to be headed for either Scenario 2 or perhaps the slippery slope of gradual decline outlined in Scenario 3.


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