The Bicentennial Census New Directions for Methodology in 1990: 30th Anniversary Edition (2015) / Chapter Skim
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2 Purposes and Uses of the Decennial Census
2 Purposes and Uses of the Decennial Census
Pages 31-76
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From page 31... ...
Would this improvement make more or less difference than improved measurement of per capita income, which also enters into the revenue sharing formula?
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From page 32... ...
In the case of the decennial census, with its long history of serving many uses and users, its unique role in determining political representation, and its operational complexity, methodological choices cannot be nearly as cutand-dried as the above scheme would suggest. It is not easy to rank uses in order of importance -- what may be of marginal direct value to federal officials may be of great value for local planners or business people, and it is not clear how to weight these different assessments.
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From page 33... ...
Between 1887 and 1921, the Congress passed laws providing for allocation of funds to the states for programs of vocational education, agricultural exten sion, conservation, highways, and public health using formulas that included census population counts. These laws laid the foundation for the grant-in-aid system.
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From page 34... ...
This section organizes a discussion of uses of the present-day census according to three main features that together differentiate the census from other data collection programs: population counts for small areas, small area and subgroup characteristics, and historical time series. Questions posed are: What is the census currently expected to provide that other data collection vehicles do not?
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From page 35... ...
Sample surveys, even the most thoroughly conducted ones, also do not obtain as complete a coverage of the population as the decennial census. The Census Bureau estimates that the Current Population Survey (after imputation for refusals and other cases of nonresponse, but before ratio estimation using census-based current population estimates)
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From page 36... ...
• Redistricting within states and localities to meet stringent court mandated criteria for equal size and compactness of election dis tricts and for appropriate representation of race and ethnic groups. Under current law, the Census Bureau is to provide to the states within 1 year after Census Day a computer tape containing small area population counts.
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From page 37... ...
. As noted at the outset of this chapter, the panel believes that the uses of census data should be examined periodically, by the Census Bureau and others, to reassess their importance and the possibilities for meeting them from alternative sources.
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From page 38... ...
Evaluation of the need for increased accuracy of census counts for uses in fund allocation formulas is difficult. Most formulas include other factors besides the population counts.
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From page 39... ...
; -- llocating funds to states and localities by means of formulas A (e.g., age of housing is a factor in one formula used for com munity development block grants and children in poverty is a factor in the formula for some educational assistance programs) ; and -- Redesigning major statistical programs, such as the Current Population Survey.
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From page 40... ...
The Census Bureau carefully reviews proposed items to be sure that the need for them justifies expenditure of public tax dollars. While the data are useful for many marketing and business plan ning purposes, the Census Bureau will not include questions solely for such purposes.
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From page 41... ...
The decennial census does not cover as many subjects or cover specific subjects in as great depth as many surveys, but it provides many more analytically relevant explanatory variables than most administrative records systems. The detail it provides can be cross-tabulated in a multiplicity of ways without adversely affecting reliability or raising confidentiality considerations.
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From page 42... ...
A decennial census is mandated in the Constitution for reapportionment. The Congress passed legislation requiring a mid decade census in 1985 and every year ending in 5 thereafter; however, funds were never appropriated to carry out the 1985 mid-decade census.
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From page 43... ...
Considering the political and economic power that flows from the census through reapportionment, redistricting, and fund allocation, as well as the concern over possible inequities in the distribution of power resulting from coverage and other errors, there has been relatively little research on what difference census errors make for the allocation of votes and funds. Moreover, the research studies reported in the literature and reviewed below are subject to limitations in scope and method, so that their findings must be viewed with caution.
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From page 44... ...
the completeness and appro riateness of the methodology used for evaluating the effects of apply p ing a certain set of correction factors. (For example, need a study of general revenue sharing replicate all aspects of the complicated formulas to assess adequately the implications of estimated census errors?
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From page 45... ...
A set that assumed that persons below the poverty line in each race group had twice the net undercount rate of persons not in poverty; (5) A set that assumed that the net undercount rate for each race group varied inversely with the level of median family income for the state; and
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From page 46... ...
2) : "adjustment of state population counts can cause counter-intuitive changes in apportionment," and "the extreme volatility of apportionment results based upon adjusted census counts -- attributable solely to the random characteristics of the particular PEP sample selected -- renders the PEP unsuitable as a basis for adjusting the census for apportionment purposes." It should be noted that the counterintuitive changes reported by Gilford are largely the result of the fact that states are not allocated fractional representation.
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From page 47... ...
Currently, P.L. 94-171 requires that the Census Bureau transmit small-area population data to each state within 1 year after Census Day.
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From page 48... ...
94-171 data in 1991 with the addition of separate counts of the voting-age population. It is possible that differential coverage errors among population groups and areas could affect the degree of population equality actually achieved by a redistricting plan based on the decennial census data.
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From page 49... ...
Not only can processing errors discovered after the fact and differential coverage errors affect the population equality achieved by a redistricting plan, but also the passage of time between censuses obviously affects the relative representation among districts that differ in their rate of population growth. However, it appears that states do not want to draw new plans more often than once after each decennial census because of the difficulty of getting any plan approved by the legislature and through Justice Department clearance and/or court challenges.
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From page 50... ...
Hence, research on the effects of errors in the census on the distribution of federal funds should contribute importantly to the making of sound choices for decennial census methodology. Unfortunately, the available research to date in this area is severely limited both in method and in scope.
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From page 51... ...
97-35) on district share of children ages 5-17 in poverty.a Chapter 2, Consolidation of Federal Programs $0.4 for Elementary and Secondary Education: allocates funds to states based on share of children ages 5-17.b Head Start Allocates 87% of available funds to states $1.0 based on state share of children under 18 in AFDC families and children under 6 in families in poverty.a Higher Education Act Title IV-C, Work Study Program: allocates $0.5 (P.L.
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From page 52... ...
CETA prime sponsor or an exception approved by the governor) .b Title II, Part A, Adult and Youth Programs: allocates 1/3 of funds to states based on state share of unemployed in areas of substantial unemployment; 1/3 based on state share of excess unemployed; 1/3 based on state share of economically disadvantaged population.
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From page 53... ...
allocates 2/9 of funds based on state share of total population; 2/9 based on state share of population divided by per capita income; 2/9 based on state share of urbanized population; 1/6 based on state share of tax effort; and 1/6 based on state share of state income taxes.b,d Allocates 100% of state funds to general units of government in each state based on local government-unit share of total population for units in the state times tax effort times the ratio of government unit to state per capita income.b,d Housing Community Development Eligible areas are cities with 50,000 or more $ 4.4 Block Grants population, metropolitan counties with (includes (Housing and Community 200,000 or more population, and some Urban Development Act of 1974 nonmetropolitan areas.b Development as amended, Title I) Allocates 80% of funds to cities and counties Action according to 1 of 2 formulas: (1 )
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From page 54... ...
Public Assistance Aid to Families with Determines federal matching percentage of $ 6.6 Dependent Children state expenditures based on state share of (AFDC -- Social Security 3-year average per capita income.d Act, Title IV) Low Income Home Allocates funds to states based on households $ 1.9 Energy Assistance below the lower living standard income (P.L.
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From page 55... ...
95-625) of 250,000 or more population that score above the median on a composite variable including population density, net change in per capita income, percentage of unemployed, percentage of households with cars, population under 18 and 60 and older, and percentage of population in poverty.a,b Social Services Community Services Allocates funds to states based on state share $ 0.4 Block Grants (P.L.
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From page 56... ...
aDecennial census data are the only reliable source for some or all formula elements. bCan use census-based current population estimates and/or Current Population Survey (CPS)
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From page 57... ...
The exception is a program with a share-based formula that also includes an eligibility threshold; in this case, coverage errors will directly affect the number of jurisdictions that are eligible to share in the fund allocation and hence will affect the distribution of the fixed total amount. At present, almost all grant programs that use formulas operate to distribute shares of a fixed total, either because their formulas are explicitly share-based or because of ceilings on the total amounts that per-capita-based programs can disburse during a fiscal year.
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From page 58... ...
Adjusting per capita income alone resulted in more significant changes -- 25 states experienced a shift of 1 percent or more and 14 states a 2 percent or greater shift, with 4 of those states experiencing a shift of 6 percent or more in their share of funds. Adjusting population and per capita income together also resulted in a larger number of changes, especially using the modified population adjustment based on median family income together with the income adjustment -- under this scenario fully 32 states experienced a shift of 1 percent or more in their fund allocation, 17 states a shift of 2 percent or more, and 5 states a shift of 6 percent or more.
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From page 59... ...
The local areas most affected by adjustment were those not constrained by the minimum and maximum allotments specified in the formula. Another way of looking at the impact of census errors is on a per capita basis; that is, how much lost revenue from various fund allocation programs each additional uncounted person represents for a state or local area.
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From page 60... ...
Furthermore, the adjustment techniques used were by and large unsophisticated; adjustment procedures that introduced greater complexity, such as the Siegel procedure that modified national net undercount rates by race to take account of state median family income, generally produced larger effects. EFFECTS OF ERRORS IN POSTCENSAL ESTIMATES As mentioned previously in this report, the census can be viewed as part of a more comprehensive statistical system providing both census and
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From page 61... ...
The Census Bureau recently completed an evaluation of the quality of county and subcounty postcensal population estimates and made the results available to the panel. The evaluation was carried out by preparing population estimates for 1980 in the same ways they were made during the postcensal years of the 1970-1979 decade and comparing the estimates with the 1980 census counts (see Starsinic, 1983, for a description of the method and a report comparing 1980 estimates with the census counts for states)
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From page 62... ...
SOURCE: Unpublished Bureau of the Census tabulations. However, errors of this size were not solely a small county phenomenon.
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From page 63... ...
However, we strongly urge the Census Bureau to examine the cost-effectiveness of a mid-decade census compared with the cost-effectiveness of the extra effort required to achieve the last one-half to one percent coverage improvement in accuracy of the decennial census. If, as we suspect, a mid-decade census would significantly improve the
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From page 64... ...
We recommend that the Census Bureau assess the need for a mid-decade census, particularly by studying the effect of errors in postcensal population estimates compared with errors in the decennial census on major data uses. Unless these studies do not support the value of a mid-decade census, the Census Bureau should proceed with preparations and make every effort to secure funding to conduct a census in 1995.
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From page 65... ...
Under the "one man, one vote" requirements imposed by the courts for equal population size and compactness of districts, small-area census data are essential for the task of redistricting. The chapter text indicated the data requirement for this use of the decennial census figures and reviewed potential problems posed by differential undercoverage and by discovery of other kinds of errors, such as processing mistakes, subsequent to release of the redistricting tabulations 1 year after Census Day.
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From page 66... ...
The equity of the distribution of monies under these various state programs is presumably affected by differential undercoverage. The chapter text discusses what is known about the effects of errors in the census count on fund allocation formulas for various federal grant programs.
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From page 67... ...
by race in each county to justify funds for social and nutrition services programs under the Older Americans Act; the Florida Department of State, Division of Library Services, needs census data on income by age, race, and Hispanic origin for counties and cities for funding under the Library Services and Construction Act. Use for Statewide Planning The states use census data for many kinds of planning purposes.
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From page 68... ...
. • Use for services assessment and planning, such as needs assess ments for human resources services in local community target areas u sing data on the elderly living alone, female-headed families, and 4 Much of the material in this section comes from the Census Bureau survey previously cited (see Herriot, 1984)
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From page 69... ...
For example, the HUD Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program has one set of data needs to determine fund allocation, another set to use in a Housing Assistance Plan (HAP)
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From page 70... ...
has greatly expanded the capabilities for original analysis and retabulation of the census responses to suit the user's needs. The Census Bureau has also set up a network of state data centers that receive publications and computer tapes containing the census tabulations for their state for redistribution to users.
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From page 71... ...
Fully half the requests in 1983 -- over 2,000 -- were for data from the 1980 decennial census. Almost three-fifths of the census requests were received from other government agencies, about one-quarter from businesses, 10 percent from private individuals, and 7 percent from academia.
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From page 72... ...
Citro, March 1984. distribution of requests by type of data (1980 decennial census, economic censuses, other censuses, other federal data, OPR data)
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From page 73... ...
In 1983, almost 30 different departments specifically requested the center's machine-readable data files. For the decennial census files, the center handles phone calls from many business firms inside and outside the state.
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From page 74... ...
• Meeting equal opportunity requirements. New Jersey requires all agencies to develop equal employment opportunity plans and to monitor their progress in meeting EEO goals using data on the civilian labor force by race and sex for the state, counties, and c ities; the Department of Banking uses data on housing stock char acteristics such as number of units and tenure and on population
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From page 75... ...
The Department of Banking approves ap plications for bank charters and bank branches based on economic feasibility determined from analysis of population, number and size of households and income by census tract for the area to be served; the Division of Mental Health and Hospitals allocates funds to community agencies according to past performance and need-based plans submitted by each agency that analyze data on age, income, marital status, race, and other characteristics for the census tracts and places served.
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