Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (1993) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 1-7
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Foote The first systematic attempt to describe the population dynamics of sub-Saharan Africa dates back to Kuczynski's Demographic Survey of the British Colonial Empire, published in two volumes in 1948 and 1949.1 Despite its wealth of fascinating anecdotal information, Kuczynski's broad conclusion was that very little of a substantive nature could be said with confidence on the basis of the data then available. By the early 1960s, and the next attempt at a broad review, both data bases and methodological procedures had improved substantially.
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Program, which included surveys in nine sub-Saharan African countries in the late 1970s and early 1980s, in combination with the 1970 and 1980 rounds of censuses, provided much needed new information to policymakers and stimulated new research (see, for example, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, 1988; van de Walle et al., 1988~. However, that new research, combined with reversals of economic progress in many parts of Africa in the 1980s, generally did not offer much hope for rapid change in the underlying parameters of the population dynamics of sub-Saharan Africa.
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The panel decided to conduct six formal studies, two in-depth studies of population and socioeconomic change in individual countriesKenya and Senegal and four analyses and cross-national comparisons of substantive population issues of particular concern in sub-Saharan Africa. The topics selected for these substantive studies were the social dynamics of adolescent fertility, factors affecting contraceptive use, demographic effects of economic reversals, and mortality effects of child survival and general health programs.
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In Chapter 3, Carole Jolly and Jay Gribble use the proximate determinants framework and DHS data for 12 sub-Saharan African populations to estimate the contributions to fertility limitation of marriage patterns, contraceptive use, postpartum infecundability, and primary sterility. Besides analyzing national patterns, they also investigate patterns by age, education, and residence, and analyze how the roles of proximate determinants changed between the dates of the WFS and the DHS for the four countries that participated in both programs.
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Different data collection strategies in surveys and censuses, combined with the processual nature of union formation in subSaharan Africa, make it difficult to document trends with the data at hand. Van de Walle concludes that age at marriage appears to have been increasing, with women in countries in eastern and southern Africa generally having average ages of marriage of 20 years or higher, but women in western and middle Africa having relatively low ages at marriage.
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van de Walle 1968 The Demography of Tropical Africa. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
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van de Walle, E., P Ohadike, and M.D.
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