Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (1993) / Chapter Skim
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7 Internal Migration, Urbanization, and Population Distribution
7 Internal Migration, Urbanization, and Population Distribution
Pages 256-296
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From page 256... ...
Gould INTRODUCTION In the three decades since the main period of independence in Africa, population distribution and redistribution through migration have remained important and widely recognized features of the population dynamics of the continent. Despite the continuing importance of the phenomenon, its status in the late 1980s and into the 1990s has largely remained as it was described by Prothero in 1968: the "Cinderella" of population studies.
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From page 257... ...
Even in the area of models of African experience, however, there nas been a general weakening of theoretical work in the face of a growing complexity of what is known about the migration experience throughout sub-Saharan Africa. To some extent it could be argued that migration studies lost their way in the 1980s, overshadowed by major developments in fertility and mortality studies.
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The typology of African population mobility described in Table 7-1 differentiates the main types of movement in space (in a fourfold classification of rural and urban sources and destinations) and in time.
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In the mid-1980s, the United Nations Regional Institute for Population Studies in Ghana produced a wideranging collection (1987) , and there were several formal and informal sessions on aspects of migration at the IUSSP African Population Conference in Dakar in 1988 (International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, 1988~.
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1 %) 1,507 SOURCE: Compiled from Union for African Population Studies (1990c)
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None of the migration papers at the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (1988) African Population Conference or in the Union for African Population Studies (199Oa,b)
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More generally, migration within rural areas involves farmers moving spontaneously in search of new land or in formally organized resettlement programs. The significance of spontaneous migration is probably falling as suitable land is increasingly in short supply.
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Rural-Urban Migration Although rural-urban migrants are not the largest group of internal migrants in sub-Saharan African countries, rural-urban movement, whether circulation and for a temporary sojourn in town or for permanent urban residence, is by far the most significant form of movement for the long-term trend of spatial redistribution, and as Table 7-2 suggests, it has attracted much study. To many governments, planners, and policymakers in subSaharan Africa, rural-urban migration is seen as the general case that all internal migration embodies.
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The Botswana National Migration Survey of 1978-1979 was able to show that 36 percent of all people surveyed in the four largest towns were rural-urban migrants; it was also able to show that 6 percent of those recorded had left town as urban-rural migrants (Case, 1982: 117~. Some urban-rural migration is already gathering momentum as sub-Saharan African governments continue to lower workers' minimum retirement ages from 60 to 55 years and, in some cases, from 55 to 50 or even 45 years, and also as a result of retrenchment in public sector employment due to structural adjustment programs.
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Table 7-3 reports the peak age of internal migration based on census and survey data for 1964-1984 in selected countries. The majority of the studies identified in Table 7-3 indicate 20-24 as the modal age group.
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Zachariah and Conde (1981) concluded that for West Africa the sex composition of migration streams varied considerably in the 1960s and 1970s, but that the proportion of women in the migration streams was increasing in that period.
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270 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TABLE 7-4 Urban Sex Ratios, Sub-Saharan Africa, 1963-1985 Sex Ratio: Males per 1,000 Females Region and Adjusted Country Year National Urban Urbana Western Cameroon 1976 960 1,077 1,122 C6te d'Ivoire 1975 1,074 1,177 1,096 Ghana 1960 1,022 1,062 1,039 1970 985 996 1,011 1984 973 949 976 Nigeria 1963 1,020 1,149 1,127 Middle Zaire 1984 988 992 1,004 Eastern Ethiopia 1968 1,025 903 881 1984 994 867 872 Kenya 1969 1,004 1,386 1,380 1979 985 1,216 1,234 Mozambique 1980 945 1,097 1,161 Tanzania 1967 955 1,180 1,236b 1973 969 1,078 1,112 1978 962 1,075 1,117 Uganda 1969 1,019 1,191 1,169 Zimbabwe 1969 1,012 1,412 1,395 1982 960 1,140 1,188 Southern South Africa 1951 1,031 1,192 1,156 1960 1,010 1,150 1,138 1970 973 1,119 1,151 1980 1,035 1,068 1,032 1985 975 1,007 1,032C Northern Sudan 1973 1,023 1,131 1,105 1983 1,031 1,133 1,098 NOTE: Ratios are calculated from national censuses and estimates for the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s compiled by the United Nations. aThe adjusted urban sex ratio is the urban figure divided by the national figure, and multiplied by 1,000; slight divergences are due to rounding.
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. Occupational Characteristics Rural-urban migration studies in Africa and elsewhere have confirmed that relatively wealthy households are more able than the poorer ones to sponsor outmigration of some of their members.
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This section identifies five major types of explanation, each of which has important current relevance to the policy context in which the components of population change are assessed. External Factors The global economic and political order increasingly dictates internal conditions and policies of African governments, whether indirectly through prices of exports, for example, or directly through structural adjustment policies.
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Several papers in the UAPS volumes (Union for African Population Studies, 1990a,b,c) and most in the collection Population and Development Projects in Africa (Clarke et al., 1985)
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The Burkina Faso National Retrospective Survey in 1974-1975 showed a positive relationship between the proportion of households with absentees and the size of the household. For example, whereas slightly more than 15 percent of households that have one member residing at home have other members who are absent, more than one-third of households with five residents have absentee members, and more than half of the households with ten residents have absentee members (fiche, 19901.
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URBANIZATION Conceptual and Measurement Issues In sub-Saharan Africa, rapid urbanization has preceded industrialization; indeed, the African experience seems to imply that it is completely independent of it. Growth of the urban population can be looked at in two ways: on its own, in which it is described as urban growth, and as a proportion of the national population, in which the term urbanization is used.
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Urbanization Levels and Trends Sub-Saharan Africa is characterized both by a small proportion of its population in urban areas and, at the same time, by rapid urban growth. Urban Population Size In 1970, 32 million people in sub-Saharan Africa lived in urban areas with populations of more than 20,000: 32.5 percent in urban localities .
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Overall, primate cities in sub-Saharan Africa account for 30-40 percent of the national urban populations (Hill, 1990~. In some countries, however, there is a dual dominance—Yaounde and Douala in Cameroon, Brazzaville and Pointe Noire in Congo, and Harare and Bulawayo in Zimbabwe.
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Although Nairobi continues to dominate, the number of smaller centers and the proportion of the urban population 2The indices of primacy are the ratio of the largest city to the second largest city and the ratio of the largest city to the sum of the second, third, and fourth largest cities.
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, Namibia and South Africa (whose urban populations had already exceeded one-half by 1985) , and four western African countries are expected to be 50 percent urban by the turn of the century.
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Migration combines with natural increase in urban areas, as well as administrative reclassification of former rural territories into urban territories.3 These three components of urbanization, the first two demographic and the third nondemographic, may be influenced by urban and industrialization policies and by national development policies (Makannah, 1990~. In the first postindependence decade (1960-1970)
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In all subregions the contribution of migration to urban growth has been declining, despite the fact that natural growth rates in towns have been lower than in rural areas. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITY Conceptual and Measurement Issues Both migration and urbanization involve the redistribution of population.
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Population Density Table 7-7 presents national estimates of crude population density for the majority of sub-Saharan Africa in 1975 and 1985. These are national averages and therefore need to be treated with some caution because they obscure the local variations that in most countries are substantial.
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It should be noted at this point that increases in population density on the national scale are due primarily to population growth rather than to redistribution. Even in countries with very considerable population move4According to the Food and Agricultural Organization Production Yearbook 1976 and 1986 (Food and Agricultural Organization, 1976:3, 1986:ix)
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The largest percentage increases were in Mali, Mauritania, and Niger, whereas there were actually declines in physiological density in Angola, Gabon, Botswana, and Senegal, probably due, for the most part, to a reestimation of the amount of land that is arable. Population Redistribution As cited in the earlier discussion of migration, a large volume of literature on population redistribution in sub-Saharan African countries has appeared during the postindependence era.
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The first, third, and fifth categories are found in almost all sub-Saharan African countries, which suggests the importance of resource and development endowments in attracting large numbers of redistributed populations. Government policies based on bargains between the departed colonial powers and the incoming independent government, as in Kenya and Zimbabwe, triggered redistribution not only of the landless population but also of progressive farmers lured by commercial agriculture.
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The proportion of the population living in urban areas has increased in all regions of the continent. By the turn of the century, it is expected that aside from the countries of eastern Africa, one-third of the population in all sub-Saharan African countries will live in urban areas.
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Dakar: Union for African Population Studies. Audibert, M
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African Population Conference Dakar 1988. Liege: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
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Dakar: Union for African Population Studies. 1992a Population mobility.
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Dakar: Union for African Population Studies. Odallo, D.O.
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Dakar: Union for African Population Studies. Population Crisis Committee 1990 Cities: Life in the World's Largest Metropolitan Areas.
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Dakar: Union for African Population Studies 1990c Literature Review of Migration Studies in Africa. Dakar: Union for African Population Studies.
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29d Wrighl, I 1990 Nomadisme Paslorahsme al dEveloppmenl economique: cas du Niger Pp.
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