Demographic Change in Sub-Saharan Africa (1993) / Chapter Skim
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2 Fertility Levels, Differentials, and Trends
2 Fertility Levels, Differentials, and Trends
Pages 8-67
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From page 8... ...
Although mortality and fertility rates fell substantially in Latin America and Asia between 1965 and 1985, only mortality declined in Africa; fertility remained relatively stable, well above a level required to replace the population. Consequently, the region experienced extremely rapid population growth, with rates for some populations considerably above 3 percent per year (United Nations, 1991; Freedman and Blanc, 19921.
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From page 9... ...
For example, the most recent estimate of the total fertility rate in Rwanda (8.5 births per woman in 1983) is almost double the most recent estimate for the population of black South Africa (4.6 births per woman in 1987-19891.
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From page 10... ...
Characteristics of African fertility are presented in the fourth section. Next, recent data from the Demographic and Health Surveys are used to examine the possible evidence for declining fertility levels in Africa.
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From page 11... ...
In particular, the World Fertility Surveys (WFS) , an international data collection effort undertaken from the mid-1970s to the early 1980s, and the ongoing Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)
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From page 12... ...
METHODS FOR ESTIMATING TOTAL FERTILITY RATES Four distinct strategies are used here to obtain independent estimates of fertility. The first strategy is to calculate fertility directly, without adjusting for any apparent inconsistencies in the data.
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From page 13... ...
Because early censuses often did not include specific questions on fertility, the age structure of the population may be the only information available to estimate the total fertility rate. In these cases, fertility estimates are inferred by using stable population theory, which is based on assumptions of constant fertility and mortality.
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From page 14... ...
In reality, a particular figure may be the midpoint of a range of plausible estimates. Table 2-1 highlights the paucity of demographic data in many African countries.
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From page 23... ...
ya ,, _ 1 Egypt _~ Equatorial Guinea-~ : / / Sao Tome ~ /z° and Principe -- - - / I ~ , ~ ~ a- Swaziland ~i,~/ Lesotho J .~.~/ Malawi ~ - _' Mauritius do' ~ ' 1E . ~ Total fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa.
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From page 24... ...
In Central Africa, the proportion of women aged 45 and over who have not had a live birth ranges from 11 percent in Chad and Angola to more than 20 percent in Congo, Gabon, and Zaire (Frank, 19831. Fertility estimates are included for five countries in southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland.
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From page 25... ...
A popular example of a country in which fertility rates may have increased is Kenya. Historical fertility estimates for Kenya are available from the 1962 Post-Enumeration Sample Census, the 1969 census, and the 1977 National Demographic Survey.
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From page 26... ...
Early detection of fertility decline through behavioral changes affecting the proximate determinants is made difficult because certain aspects of socioeconomic development can have competing effects on the proximate determinants that cancel each other at low levels of development (Lesthaeghe et al., 19811. Hence, early detection of fertility decline would be considerably easier if we had more precise measures of each of the proximate determinants and a clearer understanding of how these variables relate to one another.
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From page 27... ...
Under a natural fertility regime, with little or no use of modern contraception, the mother's age at first birth is also an important determinant of completed family size. In general, African countries have relatively high rates of adolescent fertility, and the median age of women at first birth In sun-6ianaran Africa Is approximately two years younger than it is in North Africa, Asia, or Latin America (Arnold and Blanc, 19901.
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bBlack population only.
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, and calculations from Demographic and Health Surveys standard recode files.
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From page 30... ...
In societies that practice family limitation, fertility rates depart from a natural fertility schedule as women age, because women use efficient methods of contraception to prevent pregnancy once they have achieved their desired family size. There is little evidence of a stopping pattern in any of the fertility schedules for sub-Saharan Africa, despite the reported practice of terminal abstinence in some societies.
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From page 31... ...
0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 o] 3 1 l ~ 35-39 40-44 45-49 Age-specific fertility rate ,,' ,' // Hi/ ~ \ 1 1' 1 1 ^ 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Burundi I Ethiopia - Uganda 0- Zambia -at- Kenya -- a -- Malawi ^ Zimbabwe - } Tanzania FIGURE 2-3 Age-specific fertility rates: eastern Africa.
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From page 32... ...
Socioeconomic Differentials in Achieved Family Size The relationship between various indicators of socioeconomic development and family size is an important topic that is of direct relevance to planners and policymakers attempting to integrate population variables into development planning. Place of residence and education are examined here because they are usually two of the most efficient predictors of fertility decline.
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From page 33... ...
Age-specific fertility rates by place of residence are shown in Table 2-3 for selected countries that participated in the DHS. The data confirm our a priori expectations: Rural fertility is substantially higher than urban fertility in every country even in those countries where national-level fertility estimates do not indicate a recent decline in childbearing (for example, Mali, Togo, and Uganda)
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From page 36... ...
36 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TABLE 2-4 Age-Specific Fertility and Total Fertility Rates by Level of Education Country Age and Years School 15- 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 Western Ghana 0 0.163 0.281 0.305 0.236 0.187 0.132 0.060 6.8 1-4 0.163 0.280 0.267 0.233 0.202 0.074 0.100 6.6 5-7 0.157 0.284 0.306 0.198 0.150 0.085 0.023 6.0 8+ 0.099 0.232 0.253 0.217 0.193 0.085 0.028 5.5 Liberia 0 0.188 0.298 0.286 0.236 0.193 0.117 0.065 6.9 1-4 0.194 0.338 0.342 0.252 0.152 0.179 0.082 7.7 5-7 0.204 0.333 0.302 0.239 0.141 0.096 0.108 7.1 8+ 0.165 0.233 0.185 0.143 0.142 0.051 0.000 4.6 Mali 0 0.233 0.289 0.293 0.267 0.203 0.115 0.037 7.2 1-4 0.198 0.312 0.294 0.209 0.133 0.098 0.305 7.8 5-7 0.218 0.317 0.279 0.206 0.148 0.140 0.000 6.5 8+ 0.084 0.227 0.291 0.349 0.121 0.000 0.000 5.4 Nigeria 0 0.210 0.283 0.269 0.220 0.166 0.091 0.062 6.5 1-4 0.178 0.353 0.332 0.255 0.198 0.090 0.090 7.5 5-7 0.134 0.309 0.308 0.255 0.123 0.036 0.032 6.0 8+ 0.059 0.185 0.232 0.203 0.109 0.015 0.091 4.5 Senegal 0 0.197 0.289 0.285 0.276 0.207 0.104 0.041 7.0 1 -4 0.088 0.274 0.307 0.199 0.182 0.000 0.090 5.7 5-7 0.112 0.252 0.237 0.269 0.114 0.028 0.000 5.1 8+ 0.045 0.169 0.204 0.168 0.167 0.000 0.000 3.8 Togo 0 0.168 0.307 0.299 0.254 0.225 0.111 0.074 7.2 1-4 0.131 0.287 0.253 0.305 0.238 0.101 0.115 7.2 5-7 0.107 0.244 0.268 0.180 0.155 0.071 0.000 5.1 8+ 0.048 0.151 0.186 0.164 0.124 0.212 0.000 4.4 Eastern Burundi 0 0.051 0.267 0.318 0.287 0.239 0.123 0.091 6.9 1-4 0.066 0.285 0.315 0.335 0.253 0.169 0.000 7.1 5-7 0.043 0.262 0.364 0.266 0.294 0.163 0.062 7.3 8+ 0.062 0.244 0.298 0.258 0.154 0.151 0.000 5.8 Kenya 0 0.231 0.306 0.303 0.275 0.193 0.105 0.034 7.2 1-4 0.284 0.353 0.311 0.268 0.176 0.098 0.041 7.7 5-7 0.188 0.338 0.307 0.229 0.197 0.112 0.059 7.2 8+ 0.097 0.280 0.257 0.180 0.111 0.049 0.016 5.0 Total Fertility Rate
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From page 37... ...
0 0.182 0.291 0.288 0.259 0.202 0.112 0.058 7.0 1-4 0.171 0.305 0.294 0.256 0.189 0.095 0.082 7.0 5-7 0.147 0.287 0.288 0.223 0.163 0.088 0.030 6.1 8+ 0.083 0.215 0.233 0.201 0.140 0.056 0.012 4.7 SOURCE: Calculated from Demographic and Health Surveys standard recode files. rise with small amounts of education in other countries as well, but the increase may be masked by the way the education categories were formed.)
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From page 38... ...
The second strategy is to conduct an independent, in-depth analysis of birth histories by using life table techniques. Table 2-5 presents direct estimates of the total fertility rate for each of the 11 African countries for which detailed DHS information were available.
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From page 39... ...
. that the group B countries, Burundi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo, also experienced statistically significant declines in fertility; however, these declines have not been accompanied by substantial increases in the median age at marriage, the percentage of women using modern methods of contraception, or a substantial decrease in ideal family size, which might explain the decline in fertility.
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From page 40... ...
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From page 41... ...
Also of note is the age pattern of preference in 1989, with women aged 40-44 preferring 5.5 children, women aged 25-29 preferring 4.4, and women aged 15-19 51nterestingly, the recent decline in fertility in Botswana may have occurred without a substantial fall in ideal family size. The 1988 DHS estimate of the ideal number of children is slightly lower than that recorded in a 1984 survey, but the difference is not statistically significant and may be attributable to differences in the wording of the questionnaires (Lesetedi et al., 1989)
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From page 42... ...
In Botswana, the increase in the number of women using modern contraceptives since 1984 is large enough to account for the observed decline in fertility (van de Waite and Foster, 1990~. The level of contraceptive use among married women is even higher in Zimbabwe: Almost all women who were interviewed knew of at least one method of contraception; 93 percent of married women had used contraception at one time; and 36 percent of married women were currently using a modern method.
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From page 43... ...
th birth within 60 months Group B: Countries in Which Fertility May be Declining Evidence in favor of a fertility decline is not as strong in the other countries exhibiting a decline in Table 2-5, namely, Burundi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo. As shown in Table 2-6, in all five countries the demand for children, as measured by mean ideal family size, remains high; and few married women are currently using modern methods of contraception.
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From page 44... ...
The DHS collected detailed birth histories from all women. The census only asked women about the number of births they had in the last 12 months.
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From page 45... ...
The age-specific fertility rates for the two youngest age groups are between 8 and 16 percent lower in the DHS than they were in the WFS, but are virtually identical for the older four age groups. However, this pattern is not confirmed by a detailed internal analysis of the DHS data.
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From page 46... ...
46 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA TABLE 2-8 Cumulated Cohort Parity Progression Ratios: Group B Countries Censored Parity Progression Ratios (B60s) by Age Group Country and Women's Age 1-3 3-5 5-7 7-9 Burundi 20-24 .826 .594 25-29 .874 .782 30-34 .825 .889 .673 .687 35-39 .848 .786 .673 .611 40-44 .793 .795 .655 .476 45-49 .789 .822 .664 .559 Mali 20-24 .755 .580 25-29 .760 .642 .676 30-34 .761 .716 .633 .525 35-39 .726 .695 .657 .536 40-44 .768 .706 .701 .568 45-49 .670 .680 .625 .643 Nigeria 20-24 .606 25-29 .683 .612 30-34 .730 .640 .532 .517 35-39 .748 .671 .608 .454 40-44 .757 .705 .624 .440 45-49 .776 .746 .672 .573 Senegal 20-24 .733 25-29 .785 .646 30-34 .822 .771 .631 .438 35-39 .804 .753 .665 .482 40-44 .781 .755 .675 .546 45-49 .787 .797 .731 .555 Togo 20-24 .699 25-29 .714 .716 30-34 .771 .662 .524 35-39 .770 .728 .545 .544 40-44 .775 .730 .600 .519 45-49 .821 .744 .689 .514 SOURCE: Calculations based on data from the Demographic and Health Surveys.
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From page 47... ...
The small declines in fertility recorded in Mali, Burundi, and Togo probably should not be interpreted as heralding the onset of a major fertility transition in those countries. A comparison of the total fertility rates in the two reference periods shows fertility falling by less than 1.0 birth per woman in each of these three countries.
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From page 48... ...
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From page 49... ...
However, in Douala and Yaounde, the two largest cities in Cameroon, use of modern contraceptives is much higher (12.1 percent of currently married woman) , and the total fertility rate for these two cities is 4.4 births per woman.
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From page 50... ...
(When fertility is not changing, the number of children ever born is generally lower than the unadjusted total fertility rate because older women tend to systematically omit certain births.) However, 1990 and 1992 were drought years, which may have affected behavior over the short term.
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From page 51... ...
There also appear to be large urban-rural differences in fertility rates: for example, in the capital of Dar es Salaam, fertility is 4.0 children per woman, and 25 percent of currently married women are using modern means of contraception. More generally, however, the percentage of women using
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From page 52... ...
COMPARISON OF RECENT FERTILITY TRENDS IN AFRICA AND OTHER DEVELOPING REGIONS Fertility patterns in most African and Asian countries were very similar in the 1960s.6 As shown in Table 2-10, the total fertility rate in subSaharan Africa in 1965 was estimated to be 6.6 children per woman, only slightly higher than average for low- and middle-income countries. By 1989, fertility levels in developing countries varied markedly, but almost all regions had experienced some fertility decline.
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From page 53... ...
argues that the high fertility rates observed in Africa are not entirely unexpected because much of the rest of the world is relatively more developed: The strength of traditional pronatalist attitudes in much of sub-Saharan Africa raises the question of whether they are unique to Africa or parts of Africa. The answer is, probably not.
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From page 56... ...
Figure 2-5 shows the relationship between the total fertility rate and GNP per capita. The figure includes data pooled from 1965 and 1989 so there are two points for each country.
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From page 57... ...
Countries + ++ + + + 4 57 I ' 1 1 6 8 10 Natural logarithm of per capita GNP FIGURE 2-5 Total fertility rates (TFR) by gross national product (GNP)
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From page 58... ...
Given the resource constraints facing most governments, the instability of political regimes in the region, and the large-scale movements of many refugees across the continent as a result of drought, famine, or low-intensity warfare, the immediate prospects for accurate data collection are extremely poor. Censuses have provided the majority of the information on fertility rates, but censuses have been plagued frequently by problems that have resulted in incomplete or inaccurate coverage.
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From page 59... ...
Demographic and Health Surveys Comparative Studies 2: Fertility. Columbia, Md.: Institute for Resource Development/Westinghouse.
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From page 60... ...
Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. The South African fertility decline.
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From page 61... ...
Kizito 1991 Evidence of a transition to lower fertility in Kenya. International Family Planning Perspectives 17(1)
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From page 62... ...
Nsamukila 1993 Demographic and Health Survey 1992. Lusaka: University of Zambia and Central Statistical Officer Columbia, Md.: Macro International, Inc.
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From page 63... ...
Lesetedi, and N Rutenberg 1989 Botswana Family Health Survey I1 1988.
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From page 64... ...
Niamey: Direction de la Statistique et des Comptes Nationaux, Ministere des Finances et du Plan; Columbia, Md.: Macro International, Inc. Nigeria 1992 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 1990.
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From page 65... ...
Mogadishu: Central Statistical Department, Ministry of National Planning. 1985 Fertility and Family Planning in Urban Somalia: Results of the Somali Family Health Survey in Five Cities, 1983.
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From page 66... ...
Dar es Salaam: Bureau of Statis tics. Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey, 1991192.
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From page 67... ...
Lusaka: Central Statistical Office. Zimbabwe 1989 Demographic and Health Survey 1988.
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