Population and Land Use in Developing Countries Report of a Workshop (1993) / Chapter Skim
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6 India: Population Pressure, Technology, Infrastructure, Capital Formation, and Rural Incomes
6 India: Population Pressure, Technology, Infrastructure, Capital Formation, and Rural Incomes
Pages 70-97
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From page 70... ...
A similar upward pressure on land rents would also take place. Because population growth increases with income, any set of conditions that produced an increase in real incomes would be followed by a rise in population growth, setting in motion forces bringing real labor incomes and population growth back to a subsistence equilibrium.
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From page 71... ...
also has a regional and locational dimension and because it has possible investment inducement and enhancement effects, population growth will interact with these activities in its effects on real income. This paper reports an attempt to measure some of the real income impacts of population pressure, infrastructure, capital formation, arid new technology in India.
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From page 72... ...
The market for the product is depicted in Figure 1. The supply curve S0 is determined by profit maximizing behavior of farmers for a given level of human capital skills, infrastructure, and technology.
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From page 73... ...
(d) When the capital stock grows at the same rate as the labor force and population, wages do not change.
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From page 74... ...
Now suppose technical change shifts the supply function for region 2, but not region 1. Most new agricultural technology is location specific and some regions are advantaged, others disadvantaged.
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From page 75... ...
This same logic applies to differential population growth in a region. Slower population and labor force growth have the same effect as more rapid technology growth.
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From page 76... ...
Technology, population, and infrastructure variables can be included in this analysis. This strategy is somewhat more amenable to estimating enhancement and inducement effects of population pressure and it also enables much simpler measurement of regional technology effects.
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From page 77... ...
The determining variables are lagged stock variables. The population density, or "pressure," variable is computed as the 1956 state rural population divided by the 1984 net cropped area.
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From page 78... ...
477 272 MNIA State mean net irrigated area per district (000 ha) 70 77 WHYV Percentage of cereals planted in high-yielding varieties 0.124 0.183 ISOUT-IN Index of state total factor productivity gains (1956 = 1)
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From page 79... ...
Exogenous (independent) ISPDEN State rural population/net cropped area in 1984, indexed to 1956 = 11.254 1.252 MSPDEN State population in 1956, net cropped area in 19843024 3301 NIAI District ratio of net irrigated area/net cropped area0.238 0.435 MKTS Rural markets per district10.66 12.37 LITERACY Percentage of rural males literate0.308 0.294 ROADL District road length/net cropped area 19842001 1186 IADP Dummy = for 1 intensive agricultural district0.035 0.031 WHYV Percentage of cereal acreage planted in high-yielding varieties0.126 0.154 IOUT-IN District total factor productivity, indexed to 1956-1959 = 11.217 1.339 ISOUT-IN State of total factor productivity index, 1956-1959= 11.212 1.341 INOUT-IN Geoclimatic neighbor district total factor productivity index, 1956-1959 = 11.247 1.341 IFOUT-IN Nonneighbor district total factor productivity index, 1956-59 = 11.276 1.194 YEAR The technology variables are of two types.
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From page 80... ...
Population pressure has mixed impacts on infrastructure. It appears to stimulate road investments but does not stimulate the development of improved rural markets.
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From page 81... ...
81 c~ 6 _ oo C ~( ~ ~D ~O ~O C ~o o o o o o o o o CM -0 Z 1 1 1 1 1 1 ~ CC ~ 1 ~ ._ o ~ ~ Z Cq ,, ~ ~ ~ _ ;> C)
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From page 82... ...
The population variables are the density variable, MSPDEN, used in Stage I to measure induced investment effects, and IMSPDN, a growth index of rural laborers for the state. The population density variable is interacted with infrastructure and technology variables to measure enhancement effects.
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From page 83... ...
Real Labor Income Effects Consider the population effects. The labor force growth variable shows a clear negative impact on real wage incomes in all India and in North India.
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From page 84... ...
districts increase real labor incomes. District and state productivity gains have little effect.
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From page 85... ...
If all regions realize the same rate of total factor productivity gains, the total effect of improved technology on labor incomes would be positive and significant. (Indeed a 1 percent total factor productivity gain more than offsets the net loss from a 1 percent growth in population.)
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From page 86... ...
SUMMARY The reduced form estimates of the effects of population, infrastructure, and technology on labor and land incomes in India are consistent with theoretical expectations and with prior evidence from North India. For population effects these estimates show that the Malthusian labor supply has negative impacts on labor incomes and that the impacts are partially but not fully offset by population inducement and enhancement effects.
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From page 87... ...
Improved technology raises rural labor income unless it is very unevenly produced, in which case productivity gains in advantaged regions may reduce labor incomes in disadvantaged regions. However, existing mobility appears to be sufficient to enable locally disadvantaged regions to escape this reduction, indeed to gain from nearby advantaged neighbors.
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From page 88... ...
88 ROBERT E EVENSON National Research Council 1986 Population Growth and Economic Development: Policy Questions.
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From page 89... ...
, which may be considered to be population-related labor force growth. The supply of capital has a similar policy-related shifter.
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From page 90... ...
. These shift factors also belong in the product supply and factor demand equation derived from profit-maximizing behavior via Shephards' Lemma: Oll*
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From page 91... ...
(12) The effect of labor force growth, N*
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From page 92... ...
92 ROBERT E EVENSON An Extension to Two Regions The expression for wage effects in region 1 when technology can occur in region 1 or 2 is.the analogue to equation 10: · 1 PI P(1)
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From page 94... ...
94 ROBERT E EVENSON Stage I Regression Estimates Dependent VariableRESEXP EXT IMKTS INTERCEPT768413(41.22)
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From page 97... ...
97 cr ~ c~ O ~ cn ~ ~ ~ vo 0 ~ ~ ~0 ~ 0 ~ cr ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ 0 .
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