The Epidemiological Transition Policy and Planning Implications for Developing Countries (1993) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
SHIFTS IN THE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION AND DEATHS IN LESS DEVELOPED REGIONS
SHIFTS IN THE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION AND DEATHS IN LESS DEVELOPED REGIONS
Pages 9-41
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 9... ...
described: During the period 1950-1955, the earliest data for which the United Na tions provides demographic estimates on a regular basis, population growth rates ranged from 2.7 percent per year in Latin America to 2.2 percent in Africa and 1.9 percent in Asia. The high Latin American population growth rate is primarily explained by the region's earlier start of mortality reduc tion.
|
From page 10... ...
The population growth rate had risen sharply from the earlier period in Africa and Asia owing to falling mortality rates and little or moderate fertility change. The Latin American population growth rate held steady, as crude birth and death rates fell by similar amounts.
|
From page 11... ...
~o ~ ~ oo oo oo ~ ~ ~ ~ .
|
From page 12... ...
The 1990-2015 average annual growth rates for these age groups are projected to be only 1.38 and 0.54 percent annually, respectively. Nonetheless, significant absolute increments will occur because of the large population bases.
|
From page 13... ...
~ ~ ~0 ~ CN oo ~ ~ 0 ~ ~_ ~ ~ _I CM ~ ~ ~ oo ~ oo C~ C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~t oo oo O ~ c~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ cn O ~ ~ oo O ~ O ~ ~ ~o ~ oo ~ v~ c~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~n ~} c~ oo ~)
|
From page 14... ...
o g ~ o u~ ~ ~ u~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ o o ~ oo oo 0 cr ~ g oo oo ~ o cr oo ~ ~ oo c~ ~ oo ~a 0 cn c~ M )
|
From page 15... ...
~ ~ ~' C~ ~ 00 ~ ~ ~ V~ ON ~O Ch ~ CM ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 ~ ~ 0 ~ 0 0 oo ~ ~ ~ ~ m} ~ vo oo ~ ~ ~ ~ oo c~ ~ ~O cr, c~ 0 ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ 0 ~ u ~ In oo ~ ~ ~ ~ oo oo ~ r~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~t ~ ~ '> oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~- C~ ~ C~ ~ oo ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 O ~ oo ~ ~ ~D ~ ~D ~ ~ ~ O oo oo ~ ~ 0 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ O C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ ~ V~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo _( ~ ~_ ON ~ ~ O 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~n ~ oo r~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 U~ c~ ~ ~ 0 oo 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ cr oo c~ oo ~ a ~oo ~ ~ ~ ~ [~ oo - } ~ t~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 d ox ~ ~ ~o _' I I I + ~ I I U)
|
From page 16... ...
o ~ ~ rat ~ ~ g · _ no Ct s~ o Ct o C~ ^ o o a~ U~ o o ax cr cr U~ o o o .~ Ct o Ct E-° oo oo ~ o oo ao oo C~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ U~ o ~ ~ ~ C~ .
|
From page 17... ...
~ ~O ~ ~ ~D oo ~ ~O ~ O r~ ~ oo oo ~o ~ ~ ~ ~o ~ ~ ~ ~ r~ oo 0 0 oo ~ 0 ~ ~0 ~ oo o ~ ~ o ~ _ CN o o .
|
From page 18... ...
~ oo oo ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~_ C~ ~ ~ o ~ oo .
|
From page 19... ...
The population aged 50 and over is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3 percent per year, so that this population will double by 2015, from 551 million to 1.2 billion. As a result, this age group will rise from 13 to 19 percent of the total population (Table 31.
|
From page 20... ...
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ o ~ ~ o ~c~ c~ ~ o ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ o o~ - ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ o o oo ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~D ~ ~ oo u~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ oo oo oo ~ ~ M cn ~ ~ o .
|
From page 21... ...
~ ~ ~ oo ~ oo oo ~ oo ~ ~ o ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ · - ~ ~ ~ t I Y + I + '~ 1 1 ~n ~ 0 ~ ~n 0 ° o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~Ct ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ .
|
From page 22... ...
~ ~ o oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo oo oo o ~ ~ ~ ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oN ~ _ t I I + I + ~ 1 1 ~ ~ o ~ ~ o o o V)
|
From page 23... ...
Rural growth rates are projected to average only 1.65 percent per year during the next quarter of a century; urban growth is projected to average 4.44 percent (Table 41. Africa's age distribution in urban areas is characterized by smaller population shares under age 15 than their rural counterparts.
|
From page 24... ...
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o o o ~ ~ o ~ o o o o o ~ oo co oo o ~ ~ ~ o ~ oo o ~ o ~ co oo oo o oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~n ~ [~ ~ r~ ~ ~ v~ 0 ~o ~ ~ o oo ~ oo ~ o ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ c~ ~ o ~ ~o ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ oo 0 ~ ~ a~ ~ ~ ~ - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ON ~ ~ ~ O ~ M0 ~00 ~ C~ CM ax oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~n ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ v~ oo oo ~ ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ oo ~ cr ~ ~ ~co ~ a~ ~ 0 ~ oo ~ ~ c~ ~ O ~ ~D ~ ~ ~ oo oo oO ~ ~ ~ ~ oO ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ oo oo ~ oo ~ ~ c ~c~ ~ ~ ~ -l r~ ~ 0 ~ ~0 ~c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ch 0 0 0 0 cr oo oo ~O O O C~ ~ cs ~oo ~cr 0 0 0 0 a~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o o o o ~ ~ o o o o o o o ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ oo oo ~ ~ ~ ~o ~ oo ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ ko o ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ c~ oo ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ o oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~oo ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ o o ~ ~ ~ o oo oo C~ C~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C~ C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~_.
|
From page 25... ...
O 0 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O 0 0 ~ ~ ~ oo ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ O O O O ~ oo oo ~ O .
|
From page 26... ...
C~ c$ c~ cd a' oo oo oo o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ o o o o o o o ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ o ~ ~ ~ ~ oo cn ~ o r~ ~ ~ u~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ ~ o oo ~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ ~ co ~ c~ ~ ~ oo ~ ~ o ~ ~ ~ o oo ~ ~ co ~ ~ oo ~ ~ oo o ~ o ~ c~ oo oo ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ u~ o o o u~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ oo E~
|
From page 27... ...
SHIFTS IN THE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION AND DEATHS TABLE 6 Age-Specific Sex Ratios of Urban and Rural Populations of Less Developed Regions, 1965, 1990, and 2015 27 1965 1990 2015 Age Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Less Developed Regions 0-4 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.04 1.05 1.03 5- 14 1.03 1.05 1.03 1.06 1.03 1.05 15-49 1.09 1.04 1.09 1.02 1.09 0.98 15-24 1.07 1.04 1.08 1.04 1.07 1.00 50-64 1.01 0.98 1.04 1.00 1.04 0.97 65+ 0.81 0.89 0.82 0.90 0.84 0.90 Total 1.05 1.03 1.06 1.02 1.05 1.00 Africa 0-4 1.03 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.03 1.02 5-14 0.98 1.01 0.98 1.03 0.98 1.05 15-49 1.10 0.95 1.11 0.92 1.10 0.90 15-24 1.06 0.97 1.08 0.96 1.07 0.95 50-64 1.01 0.89 0.98 0.88 1.01 0.89 65+ 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.82 0.78 0.84 Total 1.04 0.97 1.05 0.96 1.04 0.95 Latin America 0-4 1.05 1.01 1.04 1.01 1.04 1.02 5-14 1.00 1.04 1.01 1.06 1.02 1.07 15-49 0.94 1.09 0.96 1.11 0.98 1.13 15-24 0.95 1.10 0.98 1.13 1.00 1.16 50-64 0.87 1.09 0.89 1.12 0.90 1.13 65+ 0.75 1.06 0.75 1.11 0.74 1.08 Total 0.96 1.06 0.96 1.08 0.96 1.10 Developing Regions of Asia and Oceania - - r ~7 ~ 0-4 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.05 1.06 1.05 5-14 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.05 15-49 1.14 1.05 1.13 1.03 1.11 1.00 15-24 1.11 1.05 1.10 1.05 1.09 1.01 50-64 1.07 0.99 1.11 1.01 1.08 0.98 65+ 0.83 0.89 0.86 0.90 0.87 0.91 Total 1.09 1.04 1.09 1.03 1.07 1.00 China 0-4 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.06 1.06 5-14 1.06 1.05 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.05 15-49 1.17 1.10 1.09 1.05 1.08 1.02 15-24 1.16 1.11 1.08 1.05 1.08 1.03 50-64 1.05 0.92 1.10 1.05 1.10 0.97 65+ 0.82 0.81 0.77 0.84 0.91 0.90 Total 1.11 1.05 1.07 1.04 1.07 1.00 continued
|
From page 28... ...
and the urban population will increase to 52 percent of the total. The share of population aged 15-49 is more pronounced in Asia and Oceania than in Latin America, for both urban and rural areas.
|
From page 29... ...
Asia and Oceania comprise 69 percent of total deaths in LDRs, 62 percent of preschool deaths, 57 percent of 5- to 14-year-old deaths, and 78 percent of deaths at age 65 and older. Age Patterns of Mortality Figure 1 and Table 9 present age- and sex-specific mortality rates (nmX)
|
From page 30... ...
~ v~ ~ o ~o ~ ~ ~ u) oo ~ ~ ~ ~o c~ ~ ~ a~ o o ~cA O ~ o0~ ~D ~ u~ ~oo ~ ~o ~ oooo oo ~ 0 0 oo ~ a~ oo ~ o ~oo c~ ~ oo ~ a~ co r)
|
From page 31... ...
SHIFTS IN THE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION AND DEATHS TABLE 8 Distribution of Deaths by Age in Less Developed Regions, 1960-1965, 1985-1990, and 2010-2015 1960- 1965 1985- 1990 31 2010-2015 Age NumberPercentage NumberPercentage Number Percentage Less Developed Regions ~ _, __ 4~_~ 0-4 91611 45.45 65782 34.62 40872 18.62 5-1419658 9.75 14040 7.39 9366 4.27 15-249251 4.59 8139 4.28 6669 3.04 15-49- 35341 17.53 30487 16.05 30975 14.11 50-6421180 10.51 24946 13.13 35390 16.12 65-7417870 8.86 24847 13.08 38274 17.44 65+33788 16.76 ~ 54737 28.81 102892 46.88 75+15918 7.90 29890 15.73 64618 29.44 Total201578 100.00 189991 100.00 219494 100.00 Africa 0-417291 50.62 20599 46.85 18076 34.63 5-144316 12.63 5306 12.07 5255 10.07 15-241770 5.18 2383 5.42 3204 6.14 15-495934 17.37 7682 17.47 10513 20.14 50-642723 7.97 3787 8.61 5867 11.24 65-742086 6.11 3218 7.32 5407 10.36 65+3897 11.41 6595 15.00 12483 23.92 75+1811 5.30 3377 7.68 7076 13.56 Total34160 100.00 43970 100.00 52194 100.00 Latin America 0-46367 44.70 4151 26.35 2515 11.87 5-141097 7.70 752 4.77 490 2.31 15-24573 4.02 687 4.36 537 2.53 15-492409 16.91 2980 18.91 3403 16.06 50-641634 11.47 2266 14.38 3859 18.22 65-741314 9.22 2180 13.84 3728 17.60 65+2738 19.22 5605 35.58 10920 51.54 75+1425 10.00 3425 21.74 7192 33.95 Total14245 100.00 15752 100.00 21187 100.00 Developing Regions of Asia and Oceania ~lV~lll~ 4~AV18O V 0-4 67953 44.36 41032 31.50 20282 13.88 5-14 14246 9.30 7982 6.13 3621 2.48 15-24 6928 4.51 5070 3.89 2928 2.00 15-49 26998 17.63 19825 15.22 17059 11.68 50-64 16824 10.98 18893 14.50 25663 17.56 65-74 14770 9.45 19449 14.93 29139 19.94 65+ 27152 17.73 42537 32.65 79488 54.40 75+ 12683 8.28 23088 17.72 50349 34.46 Total 153173 100.00 130269 100.00 146113 100.00 continued
|
From page 32... ...
Latin American and Asian death rates exhibit a crossover among males at age 55-60. Latin American male death rates are lower prior to age 15 and again after age 55, but are much higher between ages 15 and 55.
|
From page 33... ...
~r 0 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Age FIGURE 1 Age-specific mortality rates, males and females, 1985-1990.
|
From page 34... ...
34 THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRANSITION TABLE 9 Age-Specific Mortality Rates (nmX) in Less Developed Regions, 1985-1990 Less Developed Age Regions Africa Latin America Males 0- 1 .08392 .11822 .06370 .07606 1 -4 .00941 .01730 .00435 .00794 5-9 .00440 .00894 .00226 .00352 10-14 .00178 .00410 .00116 .00135 15-19 .00192 .00408 .00168 .00153 20-24 .00246 .00512 .00249 .00198 25-29 .00286 .00578 .00311 .00230 30-34 .00324 .00629 .00365 .00266 35-39 .00395 .00735 .00437 .00333 40-44 .00533 .00908 .00558 .00467 45-49 .00752 .01157 .00751 .00686 50-54 .01087 .01523 .01043 .01028 55-59 .01625 .02088 .01486 .01578 60-64 .02480 .02976 .02152 .02455 65-69 .03824 .04413 .03175 .03831 70-74 .05954 .06734 .04737 .06024 Life expectancy 60.1 50.3 64.0 61.4 at birth Females 0- 1 .08195 .10548 .04856 .07931 1 -4 .00919 .01544 .00331 .00827 5-9 .00455 .00860 .00172 .00388 10- 14 .00174 .00390 .00077 .00137 15 - 19 .00173 .00355 .00095 .00147 20-24 .00213 .00412 .00130 .00187 25-29 .00252 .00477 .00167 .00222 30-34 .00289 .00547 .00212 .00253 35-39 .00343 .00637 .00274 .00300 40-44 .00436 .00744 .00364 .00390 45 -49 .00578 .00887 .00499 .00534 50-54 .00805 .01137 .00702 .00763 55-59 .01191 .01582 .01012 .01152 60-64 .01846 .02345 .01503 .01816 65 -69 .02941 .03641 .02304 .02927 70-74 .04726 .05749 .03594 .04746 Life expectancy 62.8 53.6 69.5 63.2 at birth
|
From page 35... ...
The new life tables exhibit for 1985-1990 a life expectancy at birth 1.8 years below the United Nations estimate. However, the 2015 age distribution in this new projection (which uses the adjusted life table and assumes that life expectancy improves at the same pace as the United Nations projection, but at the lower level of life expectancy)
|
From page 36... ...
Changes in Deaths Over the Next 25 Years Without the AIDS Pandemic The 1990 revision of population estimates and projections by the United Nations projects a continuation of the above trends for the next 25 years, although at a faster pace due to an assumed more rapid decline in fertility. However, the 1990 revision was undertaken before the extent of the AIDS pandemic was known and before even rough estimates could be made of its potential demographic effects.
|
From page 37... ...
The mortality rates in the absence of AIDS are calculated from the United Nations 1990 Revision. The death rate under age 5 will be 13 percent higher than originally expected, but the largest rises in age-specific death rates can be expected to occur in the middle age groups.
|
From page 38... ...
S + Without AIDS/~ , , ~, , , , , , , , I I 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Age FIGURE 2 Projected aggregate age-specific mortality rates for 15 African coun tries with and without AIDS, 1990-2015. TABLE 11 Increase in Mortality Rates Due to AIDS, 1990-2015; 15 Highest-Prevalence African Countriesa Age Group Percentage Increase Due to AIDS 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ 12.8 0.1 3.8 7.9 22.6 49.2 80.0 103.1 105.6 91.7 70.0 48.4 27.7 15.3 8.1 2.2 aCountries include: Malawi, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Tanzania, Zaire, Benin, Burkina Faso, C8te d'Ivoire, Kenya, and Mozambique.
|
From page 39... ...
SUMMARY Currently 4.1 billion persons live in the less developed regions of the world: 642 million in Africa, 448 million in Latin America, and 3.0 billion in the developing regions of Asia and Oceania. During the next 25 years, an average annual population growth rate of 2.8 percent is projected for Africa, compared to 1.6 percent for Latin America and 1.5 percent for Asia.
|
From page 40... ...
United Nations 1991a World Population Prospects 1990. Population Studies No.
|
From page 41... ...
122. New York: United Nations.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.