Dual-Use Technologies and Export Control in the Post-Cold War Era (1994) / Chapter Skim
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Application of Verification to Dual-Use Technology Export Controls and Related Issues
Application of Verification to Dual-Use Technology Export Controls and Related Issues
Pages 163-176
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From page 163... ...
Center for International Security and Arms Control Stanford University Notes of briefing given to joint meeting of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences/ Russian Academy of Sciences working group on dual-use technology export controls held in Washington on May 26-29, ~ 992 PURPOSE OF THIS SESSION The original purpose of the session is to address issues related to item #9 of the Protocol of the Soviet-American Meeting on Dual-Use Technologies and Conversion (signed in Moscow 20 December 19911.
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From page 164... ...
· The current Department of Commerce approach to controlling export of dualuse items including: pro ducts/c ommo dities · technologies to produce products and technical data human resources · Issues in cooperative verification of end use controls · An illustrative example · MTCR high-leverage dual-use technologies · Comments on the Russian sale of cryogenic liquid motors to India TRENDS OF DEFENSE INDUSTRY · DoD Budget has declined 35% since peak spending years of Reagan first term · Major weapons system procurement has declined at a much more dramatic rate: $130B spent on procurement in 1985 $50B projected for 1997 · DoD Science and Technology (S&T) funding has been level so far, but: overall budgets are declining as procurements decline, defense contractor TR&D wall correspondingly decline so that total S&T investment wait decrease 164
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From page 165... ...
This wait include: · significantly decreasing, if not eliminating, the use of milspecs · relaxing requirements for companies regarding technical data rights · reducing onerous auditing and accounting requirements on contractors · But, most importantly, DoD must take advantage of the great overlap between key commercial technologies and military critical technologies. DoD must: · exploit the commercial base for non-defense unique technologies · focus its technology development on key defense-unique technologies.
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From page 166... ...
Source: "Analysis of the FY93 Defense Budget Request," Defense Budget Project, March 11, 1992, Washington, D.C.
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From page 167... ...
maintenance of its technological "edge" in military capability is how spending on defense science and technology (i.e. the 6.1 basic research and 6.2 applied research programs, also called the defense technology base, and the 6.3A advanced technology development programs )
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From page 168... ...
Table 2 -- Critical Technologies Lists National Critical Technologies List DOD 1990 Critical Technologies List Material Processing, Electronic and Photonic Materials, Microelectronic and Optoelectronics, Ceramics Composites, High-performance Metals and Alloys Computer Simulation, Software, Data Storage Flexible Computer Integrated Manufacturing, Intelligent Processing Equipment . =, ~ High-performance Computing, Networking Systems Management Technology Sensors and Signal Processing High Definition Imaging and Displays Aeronautics Applied Molecular Biology, Medical Technology Micro- and Nano-Fabrication Energy, Environmental and Transportation Technologies 168 Semiconductor Materials and Microelectronic Circuits, Photonics Composite Materials Superconductivity Simulation and Modeling, Software Producibility, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Data Fusion Machine Intelligence and Robotics Parallel Computer Architectures Passive Sensors, Signal Processing Air-Breathing Propulsion Biotechnology Materials and Processes Mostly Defense Unique Applications High Energy Density Materials Weapon System Environment Hypervelocity Projectiles Pulsed Power Sensitive Radars Signature Control
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From page 169... ...
which have both military and civilian application? · concern about diversion of an item to military program of recipient state concern about recipient state reshipping item to undesirable state How are dual-use exports currently controlled?
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From page 170... ...
· How should the U.S., Western Europe and Japan "hedge its bets" against the remote possibility of a resurgent, militaristic neo-Soviet state arising from civil unrest in Russia and one or more of the new republics?
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From page 171... ...
E.g., (in order of decreasing priority) : nuclear/chemical/biological of paramount concern · dual-use technologies related to advanced delivery systems · dual-use technologies related to PGMS, · technologies related to other types of munitions · It may also be useful to prioritize recipient states as to the level of concern regarding diversion.
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From page 172... ...
. Other criteria for verification: · will verification be cost effective · wall verification work?
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From page 173... ...
The U.S. has complained about the sale because of the commonality of liquid rocket motors for space launch and military systems, and imposed sanctions on Glavcosmos and the Indian missile research organization.
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From page 174... ...
Indigenous Capabilities Ten Years In The Future · No indigenous capabilities · Libya, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen · Capability to modify Scud-like systems, little else · Iraq? · Capability to reverse engineer Scuds, make changes and produce solid propellant short-range missiles · Egypt, Iran, Argentina, Pakistan?
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From page 175... ...
· Rocket motor test stands · Cooperative missile development (e.g. SA-2 booster)
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From page 176... ...
Dual-Use Technologies · Space Launch Vehicles, components, and technologies · Inertial Navigation Systems; gyroscopes and accelerometers · Materials; e.g. carbon-carbon, polybutadienes Precision and Numerically Controlled Machining equipment Supercomputers and finite element codes Metal rolling and forging equipment 176
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