Dual-Use Technologies and Export Control in the Post-Cold War Era (1994) / Chapter Skim
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Case Studies
Case Studies
Pages 181-188
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From page 181... ...
Goodman Department of Management Information Systems University of Arizona THE NEED FOR CASE STUDIES The fifth point of the Protocol proposing bilateral activities on the problems of dual-use technologies and conversion calls for in-depth discussions of "case studies of programs to develop and to apply dual-use technologies for civilian purposes which are also designed to limit diversion of such technologies to military applications." Since the development and analysis of case studies requires substantial time and effort, it is necessary that we start our discussions by seeking agreement on the reasons for pursuing such studies and on how we would expect to benefit from them. From our meetings in Russia in December 1992, it would seem that both sides at least tentatively agree that some dual-use technology and product transfer between the two countries is necessary and desirable for important economic and scientific reasons; that it is desirable to reconsider the Soviet-era assessments of the risks of trade in dual-use technologies with Russia and the other former republics of the former USSR, and that trade controls be adjusted accordingly if the risk assessments are revised; that it is necessary for both countries to work together to limit diversions of dual-use technologies for military applications by third countries.
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From page 182... ...
Some possibilities that immediately suggest themselves are case studies of one or more of the most important dual-use technology sectors, such as computers, advanced materials, or civil aircraft. A key question that might be examined sectorially or more generally is the extent to which the former Soviet defense industries can effectively convert or spin off civil enterprises that absorb imported dual-use technologies and yet insure against diversion to sister enterprises still in the weapons business.
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From page 183... ...
To this end, we recognize that large parts of the former Soviet defense industry must be converted or dismantled and replaced by modern and viable state and private civil enterprises. For this to happen a necessary, but by no means sufficient, condition is for more normalized technology transfer and trade relationships to develop between Russia and the rest of the world, and this wall require modification of old export control policies.
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From page 184... ...
diversion of manufacturing capability; for example, the use of imported microelectronics manufacturing equipment to produce components to be used in weapons systems. End-use controls are most effective when applied to so-called "high walls" products that can be located, traced, observed, or otherwise tracked on an individual basis in a protective environment t4, Appendix C]
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From page 185... ...
Third, this is a "high walls" technology with a fairly small number of large end products that can be tracked as individual units on a worldwide basis. Finally, HPC has been the object of both general and specific controls and control procedures which might be usefully reviewed with respect to transfer to Russia, and which may serve as "strawmen" for proactively trying to help create a new civil authority for the control of dual-use technology in Russia and for exploring some specifics of joint Russian-American control regimes.
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From page 186... ...
Verification and Monitoring Mechanisms tI,4,6] Supercomputers are "high walls" products in that they are usually heavy and large, produced in small numbers, maintain internal audit trails of users, and require prolonged vendor support.
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From page 187... ...
4. National Research Council, Finding Common Ground: Export Controls in a Changed Global Environment (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1991~.
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From page 188... ...
E., "A Conceptual Approach to Addressing Dual-Use Technologies: A Framework for U.S.-Russian Dialogue." Discussion paper prepared February ~ I, ~ 992 for the Second U.S. National Academy of Sciences-Russian Academy of Sciences Joint Meeting on Dual-Use Technologies.
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