Airport Passenger Terminal Planning and Design, Volume 1: Guidebook (2010) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 80-95
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From page 80... ...
Forecasts are informed predictions of future aviation activity that are supported by careful assessment and analysis of historical trends in traffic demand, projected economic growth, and any other relevant factors that may affect growth in the local aviation market. The more robust the analysis, the more reliable the predictions will turn out to be, particularly for the short term.
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From page 81... ...
composition, and growth of both local and long-distance traffic. Factors such as average disposable income, leisure time, and recreational pursuits are also important in estimating activity, but can be difficult to measure.
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From page 82... ...
Share-based forecasts can be prepared with relatively minimal effort and can be a useful tool to benchmark forecasts prepared by other methods. They work best in stable aviation markets when any changes in airline service strategies and economic trends are expected to be few or relatively uniform across the larger forecast area.
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From page 83... ...
user patterns of a given airport. Peak hour passengers are typically defined as the number of passengers in the peak hour of an average day in the peak month (PHADPM)
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From page 84... ...
by the individual carriers will make up a significant portion. The airport usually reports the difference between its records and FAA records as "miscellaneous" or "unknown" activity.
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The BTS website (www.bts.gov/programs/airline_information/sources/) provides a list of various vendors who preprocess and analyze the various BTS databases.
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From page 86... ...
IV.2.6 Other Sources Every local airport service or catchment area has its own unique characteristics that will define its travel market. The forecaster should consider the use of any data source that will accomplish one of two goals in the forecasting process: • Describe the future trends in air passenger demand • Reduce the uncertainty in the forecast The forecast accomplishes these two goals by improving information quality and/or providing new/additional information.
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From page 87... ...
factors. Study of this history in the context of airline actions, local economic events, and activity at other airports enables the development of low and high case scenarios, in addition to the main expected case, including scenarios that have different mixes of connecting versus origin/destination traffic.
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From page 88... ...
determine the total number of aircraft operations. Forecasting growth in aircraft operations also involves evaluating whether the airlines will introduce new or different aircraft types in order to tailor their services more closely to the demand profile.
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From page 89... ...
IV.3.4.4 Benchmark (Compare) the Local Forecast to Other Forecasts, as well as Regional and National Forecasts Comparing forecasts to other relevant forecasts demonstrates that other parties share a similar opinion about the future growth of aviation activity at the airport.
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From page 90... ...
hours," that is 7:20–8:19 reflecting airline scheduling patterns. More information about selecting the design hour is presented in the following section.
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From page 91... ...
At a small number of airports with highly variable activity from day to day, a specific day of the week may be chosen as the design day. For example, a vacation destination airport may have significantly more activity with larger aircraft on Saturdays than during the week.
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From page 92... ...
92 Airport Passenger Terminal Planning and Design If flight-by-flight data is not available, the design hour is estimated as a percentage of daily activity. These percentages (enplaned and deplaned)
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From page 93... ...
times may reduce the design hour as a percentage of daily activity over time. This is the type of assumption typically used and is reflected in the example.
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From page 94... ...
and the onward airline's gates are located in a different concourse or terminal with no airside connector. Connecting passenger volumes tend to vary considerably from airline to airline.
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From page 95... ...
design day and design hours. In addition to the OAG, the planner should also use airport and FAA records to identify non-scheduled activity that the OAG does not contain.
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