Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Update to the Strategic Plan Document (2016) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Chapter 3: Science Focus and Scope
Chapter 3: Science Focus and Scope
Pages 25-40
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From page 25... ...
Perhaps a better title such as "Strategic Directions and Learning from Experience" would reflect both continuity and change in objectives. The Committee feels that sections titled "Building on Progress" should showcase examples of how the Program is making progress by documenting specific accomplishments.
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From page 26... ...
As discussed in Section 2.4, for each research priority (including carbon cycle, water cycle, predictions, rapid Arctic change, etc.) , the Committee recommends that the USP: describe the societal needs and/or scientific research questions addressed; provide a brief, high-level overview of the current state of knowledge, including major advancements produced by the Program that are related to each topic; outline benefits from the proposed research including specific products (e.g., data sets, model studies, publications, assessments/reports, maps, decision support tools)
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From page 27... ...
In this section, the Committee examines the specific topics discussed in the draft USP; in subsequent sections the Committee comments more holistically on how each Objective is discussed in the draft USP. Tipping points and thresholds: This section of the draft USP discusses new data sets related to climate thresholds that are available over "unprecedented temporal and spatial scales … utilized with more sophisticated modeling and theoretical understanding … providing improved insight into prediction and uncertainty analyses" (p.
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From page 28... ...
One prime example is the USGS archival stream gage time series with 850,000 stationyears of data and real-time stream gage networks (~10,000 stations) , as well as computational platforms for creating a broad suite of value-added research products (e.g., climate trend analysis, attribution studies of hydrologic response to land cover change)
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From page 29... ...
Carbon Cycle and Ecological Modeling: This section contains an interesting discussion of integrated research to better understand the implications of human and natural factors on the carbon cycle, including such factors as emissions from energy used in water resources management. The carbon cycle portion of the write-up would be even stronger if it presented a few specific findings, for example, what has been learned about the relative contribution of urban areas to the regional carbon cycle, and how these advances are being made: Do they primarily stem from observations, inventory methods looking at energy and materials flows in/out of cities, or other approaches?
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From page 30... ...
. The text discusses exclusively the issue of how climate change accentuates water cycle extremes, with no mention of other important human factors that dictate the nature of hydrologic extremes, for example, land use change or water management.
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From page 31... ...
In addition, mitigation-related research and decision support requires better understanding of the drivers of future emissions, including economic and demographic forces (and the associated impacts on land use change)
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From page 32... ...
At the household level, a great deal has been learned about what factors influence energy decision making and how to design policies and programs that will be effective in shifting consumer energy demand. In the context of mitigation, cross-sectoral opportunities should more completely be identified, for example, how the costs of energy-for-water (e.g., pumping for a variety of applications)
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From page 33... ...
, which represent alternative future scenarios regarding greenhouse gas emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations (Moss et al., 2010)
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From page 34... ...
Overall, it is problematic that the draft USP discusses almost exclusively what information physical climate science can provide––not what science is needed more broadly to support adaptation or mitigation decision making (see examples on p.
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From page 35... ...
The Committee's response is in Box 3.1. BOX 3.1 Climate Intervention In 2015 a committee of the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine raised an important issue regarding global change research: the potential national and global significance of studies to illuminate climate intervention––that is, deliberate human attempts to modify the Earth system so as to respond to unintentional climate change, a field also known as "geoengineering" (NRC, 2015c, b)
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From page 36... ...
Thus, the section needs to be renamed or should incorporate the social science observations that are in place or needed. Geoscience research requires physical, chemical, and biological observations.
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From page 37... ...
Moreover, the Progress section does not reflect the depth of existing work, and the Challenges description omits consideration of difficult tradeoffs in integrated model development; it should also include a discussion of priorities. The opening section on Progress on Human and Earth Systems declares that the USGCRP is only "beginning to enrich" models in this area, and the following text fails to credit over 20 years of effort in this area, with achievements worth mention under the current Plan.
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From page 38... ...
While there may be cases where new protocols are needed, many of these issues have been worked out. Fourth, there are several ongoing data initiatives worth mentioning because of their implications for strategic evolution in this objective.
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From page 39... ...
. In addition the hydrological science consortium CUAHSI is building a hydrologic information system that uses and creates value-added products from agency data sets and may provide an interesting path for testing federal-private partnerships.
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