Social and Behavioral Sciences for National Security Proceedings of a Summit (2017) / Chapter Skim
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5 Second Research Session: Social Interaction
5 Second Research Session: Social Interaction
Pages 25-34
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From page 25... ...
Panelists included Joshua Epstein, professor of emergency medicine at Johns Hopkins University; Susan Fiske, professor of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University; and Mathew Burrows, director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. Panelists presented overviews of their research programs and highlighted key findings, methodologies, data considerations, and relevance to the work of analysts in the intelligence community (IC)
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From page 26... ...
These internal modules interact to produce individual behavior that may be far from rational. The interactions of multiple agents of this new type generate a wide variety of collective dynamics, such as violent mass behaviors.
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From page 27... ...
According to Epstein, their "affect is constructed in this model by having agents fear condition [modeled classically] on local aversive stimuli.
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From page 28... ...
Epstein noted that fear conditioning is emulated in the model as agents associate particular indigenous sites with an adverse stimulus, such as an ambush. The binary act (retaliation)
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From page 29... ...
STEREOTYPING AND NATIONAL SECURITY Susan Fiske reviewed evidence that simple principles of stereotyping are correlated with national inequality and also with a national peace conflict index. She reported that stereotypes operate on two dimensions that appear to be universal across the several dozen societies that her research program has studied: these dimensions are warmth (trustworthy, friendly)
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From page 30... ...
For U.S. data, stereotypes of middle-class people, blue-collar w orkers, Christians, and white people fall in the high/high quadrant; stereotypes of poor people and teenagers fall in the low/low quadrant; stereotypes of children and old people fall in the high warmth/low competence quadrant; and stereotypes of rich people and to some extent Asian and Jewish people fall in the low warmth/high competence quadrant.
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From page 31... ...
The research uncovered a pattern, according to Fiske, that countries with more moderate peace-conflict showed more ambivalence in stereotypes, but extremely peaceful and extremely conflictual countries both show less ambivalence in stereotypes. In closing, Fiske noted that the content of stereotypes fits with an overall causal model to guide future research -- a model in which social structure, competition, and status between groups in a society predict these images of warmth and competence, which in turn predict emotions toward groups, which in turn are the precursors to behavior.
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From page 32... ...
Traditionally, the IC developed around specific threats focused on the leadership and military capabilities in specific countries. Gerliczy noted increasing focus on leaderless movements and societal issues along the lines of contagion, collective action, and diffusion.
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From page 33... ...
She referenced a book by Jim Clifton, The Coming Jobs War, which called attention to the global problem of large populations of young men without job prospects.8 Fiske asked Burrows whether an inflow of young immigrants who work and contribute to Social Security, but do not draw on it, can offset some decline in economic growth. Burrows reported that in a study conducted in Germany, modeling showed delay on the impact of the aging population by about a decade if Syrian and other immigrants were integrated successfully and performed at the same productivity levels as German workers.
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From page 34... ...
For example, plate tectonics explains earthquakes but cannot predict them. Epstein said, "A lot of social science is about identifying the fundamental drivers of social dynamics, even if .
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