Social and Behavioral Sciences for National Security Proceedings of a Summit (2017) / Chapter Skim
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7 Fourth Research Session: Risk and Decision-Making
7 Fourth Research Session: Risk and Decision-Making
Pages 45-56
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From page 45... ...
Panelists included David Broniatowski, assistant professor in the School of Engineering and Applied Science at George Washington University; Paul Slovic, professor of psychology at the University of Oregon; and Jeremy Wolfe, professor of ophthalmology and radiology at Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School. Each panelist presented an overview of his research program and highlighted key findings, methodologies, data considerations, and relevance to the work of analysts in the intelligence community (IC)
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From page 46... ...
For example, 80 percent of Internet users seek information about their health online. Sixteen percent seek information about vaccines online.
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From page 47... ...
He suggested that websites that produce coherent or meaningful gists that cue relevant moral and social principles will be more influential and compelling than websites with a lot of decontextualized or unstructured factual information. Broniatowski shared results from another study he conducted to test fuzzy trace theory.
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From page 48... ...
Within the context of terrorism, the research questions have included how perceptions of terrorism risk compare to disasters and other accidents; how different types of terrorist activities/actions compare with each other; how risk perceptions can be used to forecast the impacts that these events will have on society; and whether risk communication strategies can reduce harmful social, political, and economic overreactions to terrorist attacks. In studying perceived risk of terrorist attacks, Slovic's research program has used hypothetical damage scenarios that involve terrorism and nonterrorism events.
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From page 49... ...
He noted the cost multiplier would vary with event and context and suggested that further research could help identify what factors associated with a terrorist attack would trigger greater or lesser impacts. In regard to risk communication strategies, Slovic referred to research on a concept borrowed from social psychology called inoculation messaging, which can be used to prepare people in advance for an event by giving them a brief exposure to the possibility, analogous to a vaccination.
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From page 50... ...
On his final point that life-preserving interventions are devalued when they conflict with national security, Slovic described three obstacles to responding to humanitarian crises: psychic numbing, pseudo inefficacy, and prominence bias in decision-making. He suggested that decision makers need to be aware of the subtle way that their decisions may contradict their expressed values through the overweighting of national security and the diminishing of the importance of protecting human lives.
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From page 51... ...
To illustrate inattentional blindness, Wolfe asked the audience to find a set of golf balls in a picture of a miniature golf course. Some golf balls were notably on the green, but others were in the trees.
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From page 52... ...
How visual attention limits visual perception. Presentation at the Summit on Social and Behavioral Sciences for National Security, Washington, D.C.
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From page 53... ...
He emphasized that the CIA focus is overseas, but other IC agencies with a domestic mandate may be more interested in domestic applications to build societal resilience to risk and mixed messaging. Slovic observed that in regard to the importance of gist, narratives may oversimplify complex situations, which can lead to actions that on more careful reflection might not be taken.
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From page 54... ...
Steve Rieber (IARPA) asked Slovic to clarify whether he saw the s econdary effects of terrorist attacks as an irrational overreaction, or as r ational and perhaps even necessary to prevent a much larger subsequent attack.
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From page 55... ...
A summit attendee asked Broniatowski to follow up on the characteristics of online antivaccine supporters and any intervention strategies. Broniatowski noted that studies of the antivaccine campaigns have found some hard-core supporters but a much wider range of people who are simply vaccine-hesitant.
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From page 56... ...
Gerliczy articulated that the IC, as part of the SBS Decadal Survey, is committed to engagement with academics to help bridge the gaps. A webcast participant asked about any studies within the IC on group decision-making or processes.
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